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How do you handle these kinds of situations?

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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Oct 29, 2024 1:48 am

sadedu95 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2024 12:28 am
i really like reading your posts. Was interested to know your opinon on the NZ India test series.

Hiya Sadedu95,

Sorry for the late reply, was extremely busy today,
Well, Cricket (and Indian Cricket as well) is my favorite game and digging into the deepest details on the pitch, breathing and enjoying top-notch Cricket on my part really helps me to compile more realistic probabilities for outcomes in different situations and model very quickly the game even in live mode when I've got a free time, but I will not participate in the markets, related to India vs New Zealand Test (starting November 1st, ending Nov 5th).

I literally have no enough time for deep data gathering, processing, deep qualitative analysis, additional preparation, final pre-match modeling and compiling my real odds of that event starting on November 1st, due to my very intensive current modeling work about these below:

(1) Dinamo București vs FCSB (Steaua București), the second national derby in a row within ten days, one of the hottest World derbies existing ever, just sheer Joy such as Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings at Wankhede!!!
Generally said for the Romanian derby, in the long run, the odds compilers are posting mainly nonsense here.
Starting on October 30th;

(2) Current handling of my "Chelsea's Grand Chaos" Project - currently aiming for much better final tune-ups regarding Man Utd (under van Nistelrooy) vs Chelsea. During the last year or two, that has been one of the most profitable Projects, provided that your appropriately chosen Stop-Loss Points are managed quite differently from those of a regular English Premier League team. I'm pretty sure that the team in the post-Abramovich era is constantly in the "Barrel-of-Gunpowder" status, so you just have to smell the current day-to-day training atmosphere in the team camp, add that one in an appropriate ratio to your routine Stats processing/modeling, and you're a lap ahead of the odds compilers even in a medium-term, across the EPL/FA/UEFA competitions. Let's say the current Chelsea is an even more profitable Project than Chelsea in the Avraam Grant era. What an epoch time we are witnessing now at Stamford Bridge!
Startin' on November 3rd;

(4) Belgrano de Córdoba Ladies vs Racing Club Ladies.
The specifics of Belgrano's team and performance on the pitch are often misinterpreted by some Softs, I don't know why, especially when some essential Sharps disappear for a while and the Softs have to act as originators for a while.
On the other hand, the Racing Club team has quite different playing characteristics, but sometimes minority flaws in the agencies' pre-estimations are possible, too. For example, the Zero-inflated-Poisson management wasn't perfect vs San Lorenzo Ladies, and many other things that season.
Starting on November 3rd :)

(5) Washington RedSkins @ NY Giants is goin' to start on November 3rd;
At first glance, nothing unusual and the calculation of the fair spread is not extremely hard, however, I've spotted a quick adaptation of odds compilers in Football (quicker than in Soccer), at least for the Point Spreads when the RedSkins are involved in.

The long story short:
After building my working hypothesis of why the odds compilers offered massive pre-match errors about RedSkins @ Cardinals game, I tried some brand new ideas for the Spread markets and they were OK for Washington vs the Browns and vs the Panthers, but extremely difficult to cover the calculated on my part Spread line vs Baltimore and especially vs the Bears (the covering of the line here was pure luck and not a calculation skill).
I watched and re-watched that again and again and again, could you explain to me the exact probability of the quarterback Daniels making that long and accurate 52 YDS rush delivery to Brown? I had never ever seen that before. See the remaining time and the current result before Daniels' masterpiece...
In terms of the Soccer analogy, the same turnaround as Man United stunningly won the Champions League vs Bayern a long time ago, from 0:1 in the 90th minute to 2:1 with two quick goals scored in the 91st and 93rd minutes...


youtube.com/watch?v=tZm9eo8Nkp0&t=645s


So I'm wondering whether to save the last method of Point Spread forecasting for the 3rd of November or gradually change it...

Sadedu95,
Here in the dedicated Cricket thread of that Forum:

for-the-love-of-the-game-cricket-actual ... 40#p101240

I posted four live opinions in live mode while participating in the India vs Bangladesh Test markets some time ago. I remember Bangladesh beat PAK away and almost beat India, and somehow India won BD from almost a no-return point (were priced circa 8 at some point).
If you watched and traded that game, those opinions would be helpful to you.

The last test I participated in was Pakistan vs England in Multan, I expected PAK to break the negative losing Tests series at home, plus England's poor form, plus attractive odds for the Greens.

But I usually participate mainly in T20 and ODIs.

Let's continue that discussion from November 4 onwards when I will have more time specifically for Cricket modeling. If you have any questions, I'll give you my perspective, I'm pretty deep into the game and a quick look at the starting lineups and current field action is enough for me to form a personal opinion on a game.
But I can't afford to post predictions. I'm not a "tipster".
I would love to read your points of view on Cricket as well.
I'm here in the Forum to exchange expert opinions with Sporting and Cricket experts.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Nov 03, 2024 3:30 pm

Croatian Premier League, Istra'61 vs Rijeka in progress, I spotted strange moves on the pitch so far,
Additionally, I spotted a rare occurrence and rearranged my positions after half-time - a TIE is the most implied result according to the agencies too far from the end of the game, but who knows what the right AH line is...
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Nov 03, 2024 3:58 pm

Addendum: Well, the Rijeka goal was expected near the end of that game, but the timeline isn't the most important thing here...
I really like the long-term Risk/Reward Ratio across various Balkan Soccer & Basketball Leagues in general. I hope the agencies never readjust that.
I would be happy to read if a local Croatian Soccer Pundit decides to explain in detail here in this thread the strange actions of Rijeka in recent months.

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