Arbusers

sadedu95 wrote: ↑

Mon Oct 28, 2024 12:28 am

i really like reading your posts. Was interested to know your opinon on the NZ India test series.

Hiya Sadedu95,

Sorry for the late reply, was extremely busy today,
Well, Cricket (and Indian Cricket as well) is my favorite game and digging into the deepest details on the pitch, breathing and enjoying top-notch Cricket on my part really helps me to compile more realistic probabilities for outcomes in different situations and model very quickly the game even in live mode when I've got a free time, but I will not participate in the markets, related to India vs New Zealand Test (starting November 1st, ending Nov 5th).

I literally have no enough time for deep data gathering, processing, deep qualitative analysis, additional preparation, final pre-match modeling and compiling my real odds of that event starting on November 1st, due to my very intensive current modeling work about these below:

(1) Dinamo București vs FCSB (Steaua București), the second national derby in a row within ten days, one of the hottest World derbies existing ever, just sheer Joy such as Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings at Wankhede!!!
Generally said for the Romanian derby, in the long run, the odds compilers are posting mainly nonsense here.
Starting on October 30th;

(2) Current handling of my "Chelsea's Grand Chaos" Project - currently aiming for much better final tune-ups regarding Man Utd (under van Nistelrooy) vs Chelsea. During the last year or two, that has been one of the most profitable Projects, provided that your appropriately chosen Stop-Loss Points are managed quite differently from those of a regular English Premier League team. I'm pretty sure that the team in the post-Abramovich era is constantly in the "Barrel-of-Gunpowder" status, so you just have to smell the current day-to-day training atmosphere in the team camp, add that one in an appropriate ratio to your routine Stats processing/modeling, and you're a lap ahead of the odds compilers even in a medium-term, across the EPL/FA/UEFA competitions. Let's say the current Chelsea is an even more profitable Project than Chelsea in the Avraam Grant era. What an epoch time we are witnessing now at Stamford Bridge!
Startin' on November 3rd;

(4) Belgrano de Córdoba Ladies vs Racing Club Ladies.
The specifics of Belgrano's team and performance on the pitch are often misinterpreted by some Softs, I don't know why, especially when some essential Sharps disappear for a while and the Softs have to act as originators for a while.
On the other hand, the Racing Club team has quite different playing characteristics, but sometimes minority flaws in the agencies' pre-estimations are possible, too. For example, the Zero-inflated-Poisson management wasn't perfect vs San Lorenzo Ladies, and many other things that season.
Starting on November 3rd

(5) Washington RedSkins @ NY Giants is goin' to start on November 3rd;
At first glance, nothing unusual and the calculation of the fair spread is not extremely hard, however, I've spotted a quick adaptation of odds compilers in Football (quicker than in Soccer), at least for the Point Spreads when the RedSkins are involved in.

The long story short:
After building my working hypothesis of why the odds compilers offered massive pre-match errors about RedSkins @ Cardinals game, I tried some brand new ideas for the Spread markets and they were OK for Washington vs the Browns and vs the Panthers, but extremely difficult to cover the calculated on my part Spread line vs Baltimore and especially vs the Bears (the covering of the line here was pure luck and not a calculation skill).
I watched and re-watched that again and again and again, could you explain to me the exact probability of the quarterback Daniels making that long and accurate 52 YDS rush delivery to Brown? I had never ever seen that before. See the remaining time and the current result before Daniels' masterpiece...
In terms of the Soccer analogy, the same turnaround as Man United stunningly won the Champions League vs Bayern a long time ago, from 0:1 in the 90th minute to 2:1 with two quick goals scored in the 91st and 93rd minutes...


youtube.com/watch?v=tZm9eo8Nkp0&t=645s


So I'm wondering whether to save the last method of Point Spread forecasting for the 3rd of November or gradually change it...

Sadedu95,
Here in the dedicated Cricket thread of that Forum:

for-the-love-of-the-game-cricket-actual ... 40#p101240

I posted four live opinions in live mode while participating in the India vs Bangladesh Test markets some time ago. I remember Bangladesh beat PAK away and almost beat India, and somehow India won BD from almost a no-return point (were priced circa 8 at some point).
If you watched and traded that game, those opinions would be helpful to you.

The last test I participated in was Pakistan vs England in Multan, I expected PAK to break the negative losing Tests series at home, plus England's poor form, plus attractive odds for the Greens.

But I usually participate mainly in T20 and ODIs.

Let's continue that discussion from November 4 onwards when I will have more time specifically for Cricket modeling. If you have any questions, I'll give you my perspective, I'm pretty deep into the game and a quick look at the starting lineups and current field action is enough for me to form a personal opinion on a game.
But I can't afford to post predictions. I'm not a "tipster".
I would love to read your points of view on Cricket as well.
I'm here in the Forum to exchange expert opinions with Sporting and Cricket experts.

Croatian Premier League, Istra'61 vs Rijeka in progress, I spotted strange moves on the pitch so far,
Additionally, I spotted a rare occurrence and rearranged my positions after half-time - a TIE is the most implied result according to the agencies too far from the end of the game, but who knows what the right AH line is...

Addendum: Well, the Rijeka goal was expected near the end of that game, but the timeline isn't the most important thing here...
I really like the long-term Risk/Reward Ratio across various Balkan Soccer & Basketball Leagues in general. I hope the agencies never readjust that.
I would be happy to read if a local Croatian Soccer Pundit decides to explain in detail here in this thread the strange actions of Rijeka in recent months.

UEFA Conference League, APOEL vs Fiorentina, first half in progress,

Both teams' offensive departments have underperformed against weaker opponents in the Conference League thus far.
However, La Viola's experimental attacking trio of Parisi - Kouamé - Ikoné against today's APOEL defensive four was pre-rated with a lower confidence interval. I think Laifis is pretty OK performing during that moment on the pitch vs La Viola. I expect emergency substitutions in the visitors' attacking dept.
On the other hand, I wonder if the desirable quality of the home midfielders' passes to Youssef El Arabi (after the goal scored by the home team a few minutes ago) by the end of this game today will be high enough to maintain the confident goal probabilities against the visitors' defense and if those will be much more accurately estimated from today's settings.
I don't want to take bigger risks and decided to make conservative preliminary estimates (more conservative than if hypothetically the Paphos team was today against Fiorentina, for obvious reasons).

Anyone modeling that game on the fly?

Another Balkan gem, lesser known to Asian odds compilers.
The Botev Plovdiv team has had a unique streak so far in terms of the Modelers' point of view, striving to forecast the most likely outcomes in order to attack the Asian Handicap, BTTS, 1X2, O/U, (Red) Cards, Corners and other markets as well.

Judge for yourself about those outcomes, 2024/25 season:

(1) Conditional Matrix One:
- Botev vs Maribor 2:1 (July);
- Panathinaikos vs Botev 2:1 (July);
also mentioned in live mode here:

some-hellas-soccer-impressions-t8379/100339#p100339

- Krumovgrad vs Botev 0:1 (August);
- Botev vs HŠK Zrinjski 2:1 (August);
- Hebar vs Botev 0:1 (August);
- Botev vs Spartak 0:1 (August);
- CSKA Sofia vs Botev 0:1 (August);
- Beroe vs Botev 0:1 (September);
- Arda vs Botev 1:0 (September);
- CSKA'48 vs Botev 0:1 (September);
- Botev vs Levski Sofia 1:0 (October);
- Botev vs Slavia 1:0 (October);
- Botev vs Cherno More 1:0 (October);
- Minyor vs Botev 0:1 (October);
- Septemvri vs Botev 1:0 (November)

And also (2) Conditional Matrix Two, the near-Sigmas Areas inside:
- Maribor vs Botev 2:2 (July);
- Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv 1:3 (July);
- Botev vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2:2 (July);
- Botev vs Panathinaikos AO 0:4 (August);
- HŠK Zrinjski vs Botev 2:0 (August);

However, if you are modeling a completely different market, the appropriate matrices have similar dependencies. Why?
In my view, coach Dušan Kerkez has built a team core whose behavior on the field follows a specific logic.
Paradoxically, the former coach of Botev Plovdiv's city rival Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bruno Akrapović made something similar a few years ago (in terms of some of my custom graphics and additionally processed data, describing and forecasting to some extent the team's evolution during the season).

However, I think some new probabilities arise in some future matches (Asian Handicap and others), based on the additional custom Stats processing and a close look at the team itself.

I think the next two games are good test areas for new tune-ups: Botev vs Lokomotiv'1929 starting in a few hours as well as Botev vs defending champions Ludogorets on November 13th.

I'm happy the Minotaurs are sleeping in the labyrinth now.

Euroleague, PAO vs Maccabi Tel Aviv, third quarter ended,
One of the most treasured derbies in my eyes so far, I love trying to guess some of Kattash's moves in some games over the years.
I see some similarities between the first half today and the first half in October 2023 between those teams in the O.A.K.A.

At the moment:
- Trying to predict Nunn's shooting performance for the rest of the game, too bad so far;
- I am trying to predict the movement of the X% probabilities that Kattash will set the last minutes in such a way as in April 2024, (PlayOff 1st leg, PAO vs. MaccTA in Athens) as well as Y% probabilities to set playstyle for MaccTA to achieve a good handicap result despite difficulties in 2nd half 3Q + 4Q overall similar to April 2024 in Belgrade (third playoff game MaccTA vs PAO);

Difficult to live modeling but a real joy to watch.

Addendum: MaccTA lost the game mentally even before 82:82 and the agencies killed the value much earlier. However, the Spread line was moving in a way that wasn't too hard to predict given the most likely moves at the time when Maccabi lost a 76:73 lead at some point.

I am reluctant to touch any Maccabi game this year (even if it is against Panathinaikos and Olympiacos that I know very well) as I find the team being very unpredictable. I would prefer to analyse Villeurbanne instead.

So, does the hidden turbulence in Romanian Soccer in recent days and even hours affect the pre-match modeling of Romania vs Kosovo?

Of course, the published odds, converted from odds-compilers' applied probabilities for the most likely handicap distribution line are not exactly those, based on the probabilities, calculated by existing independent Observers' private Models, due to misunderstandings of the influence of
nuances such as:
- Mihai Bordeianu is NOT in the squad;
- Unnecessary tension along the axis of CSA Steaua București vs. FCSB (Steaua București) that involved Mircea Lucescu himself on the eve of the match vs. Kosovo;
- Last action of Edi Iordănescu & George Ogăraru vs Lucescu;
- And plenty of others.

In terms of quick reassessment of real Live Handicap:
- Nicolae Stanciu's injury about halfway through the first half;
- His very risky stay on the pitch until halftime;
- The initial quick reassessment of a hypothetical goal being scored by him vs the risk to the team as a whole, playing de facto with ten players until Olaru's entry;
- Also the urgent forecast of the influence of the recent injury of Olaru himself (vs Dinamo București days ago) till the end of the game vs Kosovo;
- And so on.

Side thoughts, outside of pre-match modeling and live game modeling - I got the impression that what happened at the last possible minute, the game was interrupted, may have been deliberately planned behind the curtains.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 16, 2024 1:18 am

Side thoughts, outside of pre-match modeling and live game modeling - I got the impression that what happened at the last possible minute, the game was interrupted, may have been deliberately planned behind the curtains.

Please elaborate.

I think one of the teams was looking for a chance to withdraw their players at some end point and chase awarded win.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 16, 2024 1:31 am

I think one of the teams was looking for a chance to withdraw their players at some end point and chase awarded win.

This is a vivid imagination, but vivid imaginations become the norm lately.

Türkiye vs Cymru 0:0 at the end,

While some leading odds compilers published Asian Handicap baselines such as (-0.75) or even (-1), my personal Model's tune-ups today insisted that my market positions should be too close to (-0.25).
I knew the Asian odds compilers were probably too wrong, based on some wrong traditions that are no longer valid, but I don't know exactly where I made some personal pre-match modeling errors in my calculations and forecasts today, bearing in mind I know very well the different managerial approaches of Mircea Lucescu, Şenol Güneş and Fatih Terim vs nowadays's Vincenzo Montella's ones.

Your opinions?

On rare occasions, when does anyone need to double-check very carefully about exactly what positions they are about to place, due to very similar names or incomplete info:
- Dominica vs the Dominican Republic right now (Soccer, Nations League). All the reputable triple-A agencies publish it on the slip as it is, at that moment, all OK, circa 90th minute. No problem on their end.

But there are agencies, publishing sometimes strange things.
Do you have a similar warning experience?
For example, when agency X somehow "incidentally" swaps the positions, let's say in events such as Gent vs Genk, or AEK vs AIK, or another agency somehow publishes the incomplete names in friendlies, such as Aris as a counterparty (you have to check carefully whether that team is from Thessaloniki or Limassol), or even Eindhoven in another tournament (but that is NOT the prominent PSV Eindhoven actually), and "accidentally" swaps team 1 / 2 at some stage in the slip opening! Or you see Dortmund on the slip, but that's NOT Borussia Dortmund 1 in that friendlies/cup list (strange if you are a rookie).
Not to mention cases when Team XX vs Team YY alongside matches such as Team XX Ladies vs Team YY Ladies or even Team XX U21 vs Team YY U21 or similars play within a day, and strange things could appear into the slip in some occasions if you are not very careful.
Have you noticed such improprieties every now and then in your market career?
In my opinion, there are occasions, when some agencies try to mislead rookie players with incomplete information or swapping/mixing positions to void if necessary, who knows?

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 17, 2024 12:50 am

Have you noticed such improprieties every now and then in your market career?
In my opinion, there are occasions, when some agencies try to mislead rookie players with incomplete information or swapping/mixing positions to void if necessary, who knows?

Back in the days I was exploiting an American bookmaker who is still present today. I wasn't using an alert service because it was not well covered, but I was able to manually find arbs with them.
One day I spotted a huge mistake they did in an NBA game, but the way they presented their odds it was not clear if the odds were for HT or FT. So I contacted their CS via live chat, and sent them a screenshot together with the actual link to the specific market, and I asked them if these odds were for HT or FT.
They refused to answer and they said, it is what you see. Under these circumstances I didn't take the bet.