Arbusers

One of the hottest Football derbies is goin' to start in an hour, I mean the Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills;

My prime targets here are:
- The Spread market calculation is in main focus;
- The Moneyline to some lesser extent;
- I think the Player Props markets regarding Chiefs@Bills as a whole are extremely risky compared to lesser-grade clashes and should be avoided at the odds levels, offered today;
- Avoiding O/U scoring markets today.

Let me explain:
I'm looking forward to another hot portion of the year-by-year series of the Reid vs. McDermott tactical battle today. No matter all we know their main approaches during the match flow, I think today we'll see a few different accents and I try to guess those ones.

On the one hand, the # 7 Butker is missing the next games due to an injury. According to the Stats, Harrison is at a quota of 90 percent of scoring successfully in his Field Goal attempts, and his presence is extremely important for Kansas City especially when those attempts are late in the 4th Q and also when it's needed to score from a long distance (100 % perfect so far till 49-YDS attempts and also good pct in longer shootings), not to mention when the Chiefs are behind for some reason. Not to mention that his 'Xtra Point Made Ratio is above 95 pct.

I somehow try to model Chiefs vs Bills assuming Spencer Shrader is on the pitch (lack of personal impressions about his game quality and dozens of possible warnings are triggered by the Model for Chiefs today) but I personally prefer Andy Reid to call Justin Reid as a primary Butker's substitute today as a Kicker.

On the other hand, Reid is still magically keeping the full 1.000 pct so far, trying to manage on the fly the right balance settings between all the Chiefs' playing departments vs each different opponent so far, sacrificing the attempts of heavy short-time domination on the pitch in a number of games so far, aiming for Kansas City to be the winner after the 15th minute into the 4th quarter. In addition, I spotted a slight improvement in the defensive Dept, compared to the Pre-season (remember the match vs Detroit!!!) and compared to the initial seasonal lucky games as well.

Despite the 9:0 winning streak for Kansas so far, the last trend is not unambiguous and has to be pre-estimated and incorporated into today's probabilities, generated by you. For example, while the first field goal attempt, missed by Lutz vs Chiefs is not a big deal for their defenders due to the 60-YDS (Broncos were leading by four at that moment), the second miss from 35 YDS would have been a fatal one for Chiefs if those three red defenders had not reflected in a very quality way the strike made by the same Lutz in the last playing second of that game. Additionally, the Hopkins-Butker duo tug pulled the Chiefs in the unexpected long struggle vs the Buccaneers!
Again, as mentioned above, Andy Reid did his best in terms of the balancing work, but Kansas vs those pre-match underdogs was ahead too late in the 4Q and in the (4Q + Overtime), respectively. That's food for deep thought when modeling before the match and shaping the final forecast to attack the markets...

I understand exactly why some agencies started offering initial Point Spread lines such as (-2) and similars, I also know that McDermott has a positive balance vs Ried in the NFL regulars, Butker's injury and the further heavy compromises on the team that Ried is forced to accept, but I also remember those games when Chiefs came back from the dead: vs. Buffalo in January 2022, when the red team leveled the score through field goal attempt, given in last three seconds (Butker scored, who else?), and later Kelce's touchdown in the Overtime brought the win, as well as in January 2024, when Kansas made a turnaround in the last Q through Pacheko & Butker. By the way, Pacheko is also missing today's game.
So, the Model would assign the probability interval of a sudden turnaround of the team, which is behind in the last minutes, as spotted in clashes between Buffalo and Kansas so far.
Finally, the Model must implement the analysis of recent games with a 5:0 hot streak for the Buffalo team differently from their total 0.800 pct so far, but in my opinion, there are hidden warnings in the games vs the Dolphins and also vs the Jets.

NBA, Hawks @ Cavaliers, the last quarter is in progress,
Interestingly, in the first four minutes of the 2nd quarter we saw only four successful field goal attempts (after 3m/3ssa, respectively) and during the spotted "lower dynamics than expected of Money Line odds, forecasted within the most likely predicted interval, plus an almost frozen spread line" temporary status, even after the first few minutes with a low score of the second Q, I think the placing of the appropriate positions (according to your triggers) on big offered limits at this plateau-like moment (especially the spread market!) throughout almost the entire second quarter was an extremely valuable moment for the value hunters, especially for a Cavaliers game at that stage.

Also NFL, LV Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs now,
The lower scoring in the first quarter than forecasted by today's tune-ups surprised me. I have to check carefully for my modeling errors regarding the first quarter of that clash.
From the moment of the missed field goal attempt by Karlson onwards, my settings have been working successfully.
I would love to read opinions by NFL Modelers in that thread.

Hotspurs vs Fulham, 2nd Half
Due to the fact that the published basic Corner line before the match failed in the first half, I think it is better to go beyond the probability predicted by past historical Statistics for the 2nd half of the EPL and urgently switch to a "Price Action"-like set of techniques. At the moment (around the 55th minute), the odds compilers are not extremely fast here.

NFL, Titans @ RedSkins has started,

Two different model tune-ups are looking to attack these markets in an appropriate manner:
(1) Redskins to reach the 2024/25 NFL playoffs;
(2) The Spread market today vs Tennesssee;

The initial implied probability of reaching the playoffs was previously estimated by the agencies at about 25 percent, a few months ago.
I'm watching the new RedSkins 2024/25 Project very closely, the work of new coach Quinn and so-called rookie-quarterback Daniels (he's no rookie at all in my opinion).
The desired culmination of implied probabilities for consecutive market-outs was reached circa the period of the games vs Bears & Giants, and let's say, even though Redskins are in a free-falling state lately, the published odds weren't valuable at all according to my view. That's why the hypothetical next ins/outs would be considered after the post-analyses after today's game.

When it comes to the game vs Tennessee, the tune-ups are adjusted to seek much more value in the Spread market mainly.
Some well-rationale triggers do not support the implied probabilities in the main published interval circa (-6).
In my opinion, even though Dan Quinn is primarily a defensive specialist, he lost precise control of the defensive department in the final quarter vs the Steelers, vs the Eagles, not to mention vs Cowboys.
I've built a forecast based on the probabilities of exactly how Quinn will maintain RedSkins today vs the Titans about the following:
- The weak defense when the opponent tries a given set of tactics;
- The team's over-dependence on Jayden Daniels' form (not to mention when he's blocked by the opponent);
- It is visible from space that Daniels' passes to Brown compared to the Redskins quarterback's interactions aimed at benefiting McLaurin have different variables and opponents easily block the Washington team at crucial moments.
- The percentage of successful attempts of the Kicker is too problematic lately, why?

Again, the Achilles heel is the defensive errors only at some specific moments.
I think Touchdowns such as Turpin's one at the result of 17:20 as well as Thomas' one at the result of 26:27 are inadmissible for a pre-match Favorite.


BTW, when I spotted the 100 yards Touchdown achieved by Turpin:

youtube.com/watch?v=m42K6Ns5rDo


I've remembered Tim Howard's 100 YDS goal for Everton:

youtube.com/watch?v=XeZ5zNv9_40

Today, it was announced that Abu Dhabi is set to host the Final Four of the 2024-25 EuroLeague season, in Etihad Arena.This is the first city outside Europe to welcome the EuroLeague Final Four.

For the record, 11 out of the 13 votes were in favour of hosting rights going to Abu Dhabi. Olympiacos and Real Madrid were against, all other 11 teams voted for Abu Dhabi. It is my belief, that very soon, one of these 11 teams will lose the Euroleague membership for a UAE team. This is called shooting your own foot.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 03, 2024 3:42 pm

Today, it was announced that Abu Dhabi is set to host the Final Four of the 2024-25 EuroLeague season, in Etihad Arena.This is the first city outside Europe to welcome the EuroLeague Final Four.

For the record, 11 out of the 13 votes were in favour of hosting rights going to Abu Dhabi. Olympiacos and Real Madrid were against, all other 11 teams voted for Abu Dhabi. It is my belief, that very soon, one of these 11 teams will lose the Euroleague membership for a UAE team. This is called shooting your own foot.

You guessed very well about the general direction under the hoop, driven by the shady petrodollar influence about a year ago here in the initial posting:

euroleague-dubai-t9571/

And now I wonder what happens next if hypothetically the Maccabi Tel Aviv iconic team makes it to the Final Four?

Today, I made a 2nd very bold prediction. We will know by the end of the season.
I m very proud of being able to read the signs long before the media comes with ''Breaking news''

As for Maccabi, don't worry, they too will get paid.