Arbusers

One of the hottest Football derbies is goin' to start in an hour, I mean the Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills;

My prime targets here are:
- The Spread market calculation is in main focus;
- The Moneyline to some lesser extent;
- I think the Player Props markets regarding Chiefs@Bills as a whole are extremely risky compared to lesser-grade clashes and should be avoided at the odds levels, offered today;
- Avoiding O/U scoring markets today.

Let me explain:
I'm looking forward to another hot portion of the year-by-year series of the Reid vs. McDermott tactical battle today. No matter all we know their main approaches during the match flow, I think today we'll see a few different accents and I try to guess those ones.

On the one hand, the # 7 Butker is missing the next games due to an injury. According to the Stats, Harrison is at a quota of 90 percent of scoring successfully in his Field Goal attempts, and his presence is extremely important for Kansas City especially when those attempts are late in the 4th Q and also when it's needed to score from a long distance (100 % perfect so far till 49-YDS attempts and also good pct in longer shootings), not to mention when the Chiefs are behind for some reason. Not to mention that his 'Xtra Point Made Ratio is above 95 pct.

I somehow try to model Chiefs vs Bills assuming Spencer Shrader is on the pitch (lack of personal impressions about his game quality and dozens of possible warnings are triggered by the Model for Chiefs today) but I personally prefer Andy Reid to call Justin Reid as a primary Butker's substitute today as a Kicker.

On the other hand, Reid is still magically keeping the full 1.000 pct so far, trying to manage on the fly the right balance settings between all the Chiefs' playing departments vs each different opponent so far, sacrificing the attempts of heavy short-time domination on the pitch in a number of games so far, aiming for Kansas City to be the winner after the 15th minute into the 4th quarter. In addition, I spotted a slight improvement in the defensive Dept, compared to the Pre-season (remember the match vs Detroit!!!) and compared to the initial seasonal lucky games as well.

Despite the 9:0 winning streak for Kansas so far, the last trend is not unambiguous and has to be pre-estimated and incorporated into today's probabilities, generated by you. For example, while the first field goal attempt, missed by Lutz vs Chiefs is not a big deal for their defenders due to the 60-YDS (Broncos were leading by four at that moment), the second miss from 35 YDS would have been a fatal one for Chiefs if those three red defenders had not reflected in a very quality way the strike made by the same Lutz in the last playing second of that game. Additionally, the Hopkins-Butker duo tug pulled the Chiefs in the unexpected long struggle vs the Buccaneers!
Again, as mentioned above, Andy Reid did his best in terms of the balancing work, but Kansas vs those pre-match underdogs was ahead too late in the 4Q and in the (4Q + Overtime), respectively. That's food for deep thought when modeling before the match and shaping the final forecast to attack the markets...

I understand exactly why some agencies started offering initial Point Spread lines such as (-2) and similars, I also know that McDermott has a positive balance vs Ried in the NFL regulars, Butker's injury and the further heavy compromises on the team that Ried is forced to accept, but I also remember those games when Chiefs came back from the dead: vs. Buffalo in January 2022, when the red team leveled the score through field goal attempt, given in last three seconds (Butker scored, who else?), and later Kelce's touchdown in the Overtime brought the win, as well as in January 2024, when Kansas made a turnaround in the last Q through Pacheko & Butker. By the way, Pacheko is also missing today's game.
So, the Model would assign the probability interval of a sudden turnaround of the team, which is behind in the last minutes, as spotted in clashes between Buffalo and Kansas so far.
Finally, the Model must implement the analysis of recent games with a 5:0 hot streak for the Buffalo team differently from their total 0.800 pct so far, but in my opinion, there are hidden warnings in the games vs the Dolphins and also vs the Jets.

NBA, Hawks @ Cavaliers, the last quarter is in progress,
Interestingly, in the first four minutes of the 2nd quarter we saw only four successful field goal attempts (after 3m/3ssa, respectively) and during the spotted "lower dynamics than expected of Money Line odds, forecasted within the most likely predicted interval, plus an almost frozen spread line" temporary status, even after the first few minutes with a low score of the second Q, I think the placing of the appropriate positions (according to your triggers) on big offered limits at this plateau-like moment (especially the spread market!) throughout almost the entire second quarter was an extremely valuable moment for the value hunters, especially for a Cavaliers game at that stage.

Also NFL, LV Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs now,
The lower scoring in the first quarter than forecasted by today's tune-ups surprised me. I have to check carefully for my modeling errors regarding the first quarter of that clash.
From the moment of the missed field goal attempt by Karlson onwards, my settings have been working successfully.
I would love to read opinions by NFL Modelers in that thread.

Hotspurs vs Fulham, 2nd Half
Due to the fact that the published basic Corner line before the match failed in the first half, I think it is better to go beyond the probability predicted by past historical Statistics for the 2nd half of the EPL and urgently switch to a "Price Action"-like set of techniques. At the moment (around the 55th minute), the odds compilers are not extremely fast here.

NFL, Titans @ RedSkins has started,

Two different model tune-ups are looking to attack these markets in an appropriate manner:
(1) Redskins to reach the 2024/25 NFL playoffs;
(2) The Spread market today vs Tennesssee;

The initial implied probability of reaching the playoffs was previously estimated by the agencies at about 25 percent, a few months ago.
I'm watching the new RedSkins 2024/25 Project very closely, the work of new coach Quinn and so-called rookie-quarterback Daniels (he's no rookie at all in my opinion).
The desired culmination of implied probabilities for consecutive market-outs was reached circa the period of the games vs Bears & Giants, and let's say, even though Redskins are in a free-falling state lately, the published odds weren't valuable at all according to my view. That's why the hypothetical next ins/outs would be considered after the post-analyses after today's game.

When it comes to the game vs Tennessee, the tune-ups are adjusted to seek much more value in the Spread market mainly.
Some well-rationale triggers do not support the implied probabilities in the main published interval circa (-6).
In my opinion, even though Dan Quinn is primarily a defensive specialist, he lost precise control of the defensive department in the final quarter vs the Steelers, vs the Eagles, not to mention vs Cowboys.
I've built a forecast based on the probabilities of exactly how Quinn will maintain RedSkins today vs the Titans about the following:
- The weak defense when the opponent tries a given set of tactics;
- The team's over-dependence on Jayden Daniels' form (not to mention when he's blocked by the opponent);
- It is visible from space that Daniels' passes to Brown compared to the Redskins quarterback's interactions aimed at benefiting McLaurin have different variables and opponents easily block the Washington team at crucial moments.
- The percentage of successful attempts of the Kicker is too problematic lately, why?

Again, the Achilles heel is the defensive errors only at some specific moments.
I think Touchdowns such as Turpin's one at the result of 17:20 as well as Thomas' one at the result of 26:27 are inadmissible for a pre-match Favorite.


BTW, when I spotted the 100 yards Touchdown achieved by Turpin:

youtube.com/watch?v=m42K6Ns5rDo


I've remembered Tim Howard's 100 YDS goal for Everton:

youtube.com/watch?v=XeZ5zNv9_40

Today, it was announced that Abu Dhabi is set to host the Final Four of the 2024-25 EuroLeague season, in Etihad Arena.This is the first city outside Europe to welcome the EuroLeague Final Four.

For the record, 11 out of the 13 votes were in favour of hosting rights going to Abu Dhabi. Olympiacos and Real Madrid were against, all other 11 teams voted for Abu Dhabi. It is my belief, that very soon, one of these 11 teams will lose the Euroleague membership for a UAE team. This is called shooting your own foot.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 03, 2024 3:42 pm

Today, it was announced that Abu Dhabi is set to host the Final Four of the 2024-25 EuroLeague season, in Etihad Arena.This is the first city outside Europe to welcome the EuroLeague Final Four.

For the record, 11 out of the 13 votes were in favour of hosting rights going to Abu Dhabi. Olympiacos and Real Madrid were against, all other 11 teams voted for Abu Dhabi. It is my belief, that very soon, one of these 11 teams will lose the Euroleague membership for a UAE team. This is called shooting your own foot.

You guessed very well about the general direction under the hoop, driven by the shady petrodollar influence about a year ago here in the initial posting:

euroleague-dubai-t9571/

And now I wonder what happens next if hypothetically the Maccabi Tel Aviv iconic team makes it to the Final Four?

Today, I made a 2nd very bold prediction. We will know by the end of the season.
I m very proud of being able to read the signs long before the media comes with ''Breaking news''

As for Maccabi, don't worry, they too will get paid.

Two very tough clashes from a modeler's point of view.
Building reliable forecasts here is more of a challenge than usual, so positions were limited.

Debreceni VSC vs Ferencvárosi in a few hours,
In case of considering the AH lines in your today's plan, in my opinion, SBO & ISN have offered earlier some valuable % concerning pre-match AH odds for Ferencvárosi (-1) as well as SBO odds for Ferencvárosi (-0.75) was OK, in my opinion.

Lazio vs Napoli in a few hours,
In my view, there is a huge opportunity for Conte to re-adjust Napoli's defensive Department today (considering how exactly the offensive-minded Lazio was stopped by Ludogorets (Europa League) and Parma (Calcio, Serie A) within a week) and therefore the reassessment of the risk is mandatory for the forecast of their interaction with other Departments on the pitch, so better exclude estimations, based on pre-selected traditional variables, describing the Napoli team in Serie A lately.
As for Lazio, I've some uncertainty in my forecast about what their initial tactical plan on the pitch would be today.

The number of games played in the 2024/25 NBA's regular season so far is in the ϵ{0.244% - 0.293%} quota for every team, and besides the various long-term Data Projects, I think some Stats, helped by personal observations are an excellent basis for day-to-day short term forecasts as well as building medium-term micro Projects.

For example, I've just started handling two Matrices, containing the teams with winning percentages within the interval between 0.500 and untouched 0.600. Why?
On the one hand, I'm under the impression, that the teams' Power Rank ratio (here in that custom-made PR Parameter I include my assumptions for the partially unrevealed potential so far) is disproportionately reflected in the Conference (W/E) to which the team belongs.
On the other hand, I expect some logical changes in the positions of these teams, but I'm currently struggling to compile a list of very reliable predictions that cover at least the minimum probability I want in the medium-short term, let's say targeting the middle of the regular season circa end of January 2025. That's not an easy task.

So, in the Western conditional Matrix the Clippers, Suns, Nuggets (Jokić is currently in that lower-ranked group OMG!!!), Lakers, T'Wolves & SA Spurs are included, while in the Eastern one are only Bucks, Hawks & Heat.
Interestingly, while in the East the [0.500-0.600) Members currently are fighting for the direct 1/8-finals playoff spots, the Western ones are covering the wide zone of 6th-11th and in my opinion, the Power Rank would be hypothetically more dynamic here.

The special teams, I've selected for those medium-term Projects in order to be used as custom-made Benchmarks, are Spurs & Heat.
In Euroleague Basketball, I use teams that cover my Criteria in a custom-made Project codenamed Rubicon, aiming for additional data and impressions when X or Y is attempting to overcome the Rubicon teams (somewhere on the Forum I've hinted at it, in some past periods, I've used teams such as Valencia Basket, Saski Baskonia etc).
I know some approaches of both Spoelstra & Popovich, also excellent observations of both teams over the years (note, long-term relying on the same coaches), that achieved 0.500 so far in the 2024/25 season; also using the appropriate Data from non-obsolete parts of past Projects regarding San Antonio & Miami is a big plus here.

In a few hours:
- Lakers@Hawks;
- Bucks@Celtics (amongst the hidden Classics in the near past);
- Kings@Spurs (I'm trying to imagine the matchup if Mike Brown hypothetically has Sasha Vezenkov available vs the San Antonio 2024/25 roster);
- T'Wolves@Warriors;

Much later:
- Nuggets@Wizards (Quo Vadis in 2024/25, Washington?);
- Suns@Heat;
- Bucks@Nets (too, too soon after the game away vs the Celtics);

Even much later:
- Rockets@Clippers.


Any ideas & hints regarding modeling are welcome in that thread.
Naturally, protect yourselves and please don't share here your important approaches and your main created ideas, which may jeopardize your Projects.

The problem with modelling, and especially NBA modelling, is that there are so many people who practise it, and lately, it is the AI jumping in. So it is very difficult to have an edge against all of them.
In my humble opinion, the best strategy is to focus on a small number of teams, 3 as a maximum. These should be in the same periphery. Then you have to understand the psyche of these teams and the way they react under various circumstances. If you come close knowing these teams inside out, then you are ahead of the competition.
Bucks and Celtics are obvious choices for me followed by Pistons and Bulls at a distance.
The same applies to Euroleague as well. These years it pays focusing on teams that will play against each other in both Euroleague and national championships. Obviously for me it is Panathinaikos and Olympiacos, then the other two couples from Serbia and Turkey would pay off.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 06, 2024 4:47 pm

The problem with modelling, and especially NBA modelling, is that there are so many people who practise it, and lately, it is the AI jumping in. So it is very difficult to have an edge against all of them.
In my humble opinion, the best strategy is to focus on a small number of teams, 3 as a maximum. These should be in the same periphery. Then you have to understand the psyche of these teams and the way they react under various circumstances. If you come close knowing these teams inside out, then you are ahead of the competition.
Bucks and Celtics are obvious choices for me followed by Pistons and Bulls at a distance.
The same applies to Euroleague as well. These years it pays focusing on teams that will play against each other in both Euroleague and national championships. Obviously for me it is Panathinaikos and Olympiacos, then the other two couples from Serbia and Turkey would pay off.

I support at very big extent your opinion, but in addition, let me share some thoughts with the auditorium of that wonderful Forum:
(1) the AI currently is far away from the creative Mind and Imagination of whatever Person, the Person is much more powerful while digging into a certain field of interest; I've remembered Garry Kasparov vs The Deep Blue;
The Großmeister Mr. Kasparov lost some games but won most of the games and the overall clash vs hyper-powered AI, loaded by all the chess-world info in the History available at that moment, maintained by IBM;
(2) I suspect subjects such as the AI-creators, bookies reps, thieves of other people's ideas masquerading as Forum members and so on, are reading the Forum, so I personally publish very negligible ideas not harming my Projects in all the threads in the Forum, say estimated as of 1% importance or so.

I strongly advise everyone writing in that Forum to do the same in order to protect her/his intellectual work and business;

The main idea of ​​my topics is to encourage everyone to exchange highly valuable creative hints of ideas with each other in a respectful manner, expressed towards the creative Personality and potential of the Mind of each fellow member of the Arbusers Forum, as in the past gold times. Again, sharing the ideas created should be done in a way that does not harm the Author's business.

(3) You are absolutely right, it is much better to follow a limited number of teams, in order to create and maintain your personal top-level expertise. But when the rain of new ideas emerges such as photon flux after the personal creative brainstorming process, which leads to expanding that short list at first glance, block-type approaches and testings are aiming:
- reliable filter to distinct hypothetically viable ideas;
- saving our modeling time.

Mr. Arbusers, I highly appreciate your advice in the previous post to save my modeling time and protect me from AI machines.

P.S. Mr. Garry Kimovich Kasparov is not only a Chess Legend (probably the best Chess Mind ever in my eyes), but also a Cosmopolitan Person, a Supporter of universal human values, civilizational achievements and human rights, but putin's junta expelled him from the country...

EuroLeague Basketball, Olympiakos vs Paris has just ended,
Fast forward to the fourth quarter for obvious reasons,
Tomorrow I'll re-watch again and again in fresh-minded status what exactly happened from 60:80 to 82:80 in order to put the appropriate variables and non-quantitative assessments belonging to that time interval in the testing mode. I even recall for a moment great Partizan Belgrade's comeback vs Maccabi TA from a (-24 pts) some months ago, but apparently, today's case was too different ( just Obradović & Kattash's gaming accents primarily in the first half and later in the 3rd Q in the abovementioned clash were too different from today's ones in the 2nd half's attempt to comeback by Oly vs Par).
The further roadmap to the final 90:96 is not among the unseen things so far.
What a game!

Paris brings in something new in this Euroleague. It is a style of play characterised by Audacity! I really don't know how the big coaches will deal with it.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 06, 2024 6:17 pm

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 06, 2024 4:47 pm

The problem with modelling, and especially NBA modelling, is that there are so many people who practise it, and lately, it is the AI jumping in. So it is very difficult to have an edge against all of them.
In my humble opinion, the best strategy is to focus on a small number of teams, 3 as a maximum. These should be in the same periphery. Then you have to understand the psyche of these teams and the way they react under various circumstances. If you come close knowing these teams inside out, then you are ahead of the competition.
Bucks and Celtics are obvious choices for me followed by Pistons and Bulls at a distance.
The same applies to Euroleague as well. These years it pays focusing on teams that will play against each other in both Euroleague and national championships. Obviously for me it is Panathinaikos and Olympiacos, then the other two couples from Serbia and Turkey would pay off.

I support at very big extent your opinion, but in addition, let me share some thoughts with the auditorium of that wonderful Forum:
(1) the AI currently is far away from the creative Mind and Imagination of whatever Person, the Person is much more powerful while digging into a certain field of interest; I've remembered Garry Kasparov vs The Deep Blue;
The Großmeister Mr. Kasparov lost some games but won most of the games and the overall clash vs hyper-powered AI, loaded by all the chess-world info in the History available at that moment, maintained by IBM;
(2) I suspect subjects such as the AI-creators, bookies reps, thieves of other people's ideas masquerading as Forum members and so on, are reading the Forum, so I personally publish very negligible ideas not harming my Projects in all the threads in the Forum, say estimated as of 1% importance or so.

I strongly advise everyone writing in that Forum to do the same in order to protect her/his intellectual work and business;

The main idea of ​​my topics is to encourage everyone to exchange highly valuable creative hints of ideas with each other in a respectful manner, expressed towards the creative Personality and potential of the Mind of each fellow member of the Arbusers Forum, as in the past gold times. Again, sharing the ideas created should be done in a way that does not harm the Author's business.

(3) You are absolutely right, it is much better to follow a limited number of teams, in order to create and maintain your personal top-level expertise. But when the rain of new ideas emerges such as photon flux after the personal creative brainstorming process, which leads to expanding that short list at first glance, block-type approaches and testings are aiming:
- reliable filter to distinct hypothetically viable ideas;
- saving our modeling time.

Mr. Arbusers, I highly appreciate your advice in the previous post to save my modeling time and protect me from AI machines.

P.S. Mr. Garry Kimovich Kasparov is not only a Chess Legend (probably the best Chess Mind ever in my eyes), but also a Cosmopolitan Person, a Supporter of universal human values, civilizational achievements and human rights, but putin's junta expelled him from the country...

A Chess Player amongst the Locusts :-)
I am a RJF Fan,always was . He singlehandly destroyed the combined Force of the Russian Chess Fortress ,but yes its hard to name the Goat.
But one Thing is for sure. Garrys immortal Game against Topalov is unreal. The sheer calculating Power when he changed the Rook against the Knight is not from this World. And at the End of this Combination it all worked out because the Rook was at H8 !!!! Back then he couldnt even Cheat with a Computer,so the Brainwork of this Guy is unimaginable.

autobetting wrote: ↑

Sat Dec 07, 2024 5:03 am

...
I am a RJF Fan,always was . He singlehandly destroyed the combined Force of the Russian Chess Fortress
...

A Unique Person, indeed!!! Thank you for mentioning Bobby Fischer.
Boris Spassky, like Kasparov, is also leaving the country afterward.
Now Kasparov in Croatia, Spassky in France.
By the way, both Kasparov and Fischer are Jews, so logically they are amongst the smartest.