Arbusers

Perhaps Pinny can read sharp market participants' Minds.
Now seriously, Pinny again and again they were unreliable in the hot market moments.
Today in very specific moments of the clash Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Raed they disappeared temporarily and luckily Asian Minotaurs appropriately handled the desired markets.
Pinny at least handled properly the markets right on the sensational Balkan result HNK Gorica - HNK Hajduk Split.

It's always awe-inspiring when a long "Hail Mary" pass leads to a "Buzzer Beater" type of victory outside the final second;
I was lucky enough to see it twice in the fall of 2024, so let me re-post the link to the mysterious Washington RedSkins win, look at exactly when and how Jayden Daniels threw the "Hail Mary" pass & the winning Touchdown by Brown, see also the clock:

youtube.com/watch?v=tZm9eo8Nkp0&t=645s

And today It happened again, Asteras vs PAO,
Mladenović performed a "Hail Mary" pass even in the next minute after the end of the stoppage time, and the winning goal by Jeremejeff:

youtu.be/Np-WB_AGoUQ?t=501


By the way,
NFL, Bills @ Rams has just ended,
I was amazed at the timing of the odds movement in live mode, reflecting today's true reality on the pitch in Inglewood. In my view, the odds compilers waited longer than was reasonable for the hypothetical Buffalo comeback later in the game.
I'm sure they were trapped by the Buffalo's 10W:2L prior to that game today, combined with their very nice offensive Stats vs mediocre LA Rams' defensive ones.

In other words, there was a slight discrepancy in time ∆t between the events that occurred on the pitch (say in the 1Q + 2Q) and the moment of the offering of the moneyline odds at more appropriate levels, which implied probabilities closer to reality. But I think in the (3Q+4Q) the value was eliminated by the odds compilers. Here I commented only on the MoneyLine odds and didn't comment on the Spread lines at all.

I mean the time interval ∆t started somewhere from Williams' first Touchdown to the moment when the odds for the LA Rams fell below a predetermined by the Model (1.6 - 1.55) odds zone mark and later the market was non-attractive accordin' to my chosen tune-ups, even at the moment of 35:38 near the end. But the array of {Joshua Karty's missed Extra point plus Allen's Touchdown + Buffalo's Extra Point} that happened within 54 seconds would be re-evaluated, but the pre-match accepted Plan didn't allow me to open new positions at that level of risk.

And when it comes to the initial Touchdown today, I was stunned by the ease with which #23 Williams ran the nine yards for a Touchdown after the {1st & Goal}, completely undisturbed by one of the best defensive Departments across the NFL 2024.


Let's see what happens at the event LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs, which has just started!
That clash also promises to be very interesting, I think the Triggers came from a well-tuned Model. I don't work here with a pre-match Spread line offered at a quota of (-4.5).

The Israeli Ligat ha'Al,
Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Beitar Jerusalem has ended a few minutes ago,

Prior to the clash today:
(1) The extremely predictable Hapoel Be'er Sheva have recently scored an average of 2 goals in their last four home games;
(2) The best defensive Dept in Ligat ha'al when playing away belonged to Beitar around November (along with Be'er Sheva's defensive Department as an away team, of course);
(3) The big problem in terms of modeling was reading the hidden signals in Beitar Jerusalem's very last away game (in December), which ended 3:3 away vs Hapoel Jerusalem, thus they conceded exactly as many goals as they had conceded so far when playing away;
(3.1) Four goals were scored in the first half of the abovementioned game;
(4) That League has strange specifics in the distribution of some observed Stats parameters in the Timeline, not only Poisson's λ;
(5) Overall, the public information available about ha'Al is significantly less compared to the EPL, Bundesliga, etc;
(6) And so on.

I'm still wondering exactly why the odds compilers were too generous for today's game Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Beitar Jerusalem when it comes to the lines of First Half Ov (1.25) (offered pre-match odds were above 2.00) and First Half AH (-0.25) (again above 2.00), neglecting the recent crash of the Beitar's defensive Department vs Hapoel Jerusalem which occurred early in the first half?

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 09, 2024 1:31 am

...
And today It happened again, Asteras vs PAO,
Mladenović performed a "Hail Mary" pass even in the next minute after the end of the stoppage time, and the winning goal by Jeremejeff:

youtu.be/Np-WB_AGoUQ?t=501
...

It seems to me that the Author of the channel, for some unknown reason, has restricted access now, so here is a new reliable link for those who love to analyze in depth and calculate the likelihoods & the odds beyond the imagination, that's the very late route of the ball: Mladenović's long ball delivery toward the penalty area - air battle - Jeremejeff's task solution:

novasports.gr/web-tv/sport/podosfairo/event/super-league-1/live-goals/video/13932383/asteras-aktor-panathinaikos-0-1-buzzer-beater-apo-ton-geremegef-video/

Has anyone started modeling the most attractive clash of Week 15 of the 2024/25 NFL, Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions, which starts in two days?

In the shadow of the current giant battles Man City vs. Man United and Celtic vs. Rangers, the clash of hidden Balkan jewels Hajduk Split vs. Rijeka created and still creates unique market opportunities in my opinion (the match has not ended)...

In my opinion, from now on, some unique opportunities are possible in some markets, as hinted in the pre-match analysis of the clash between Lugano and Paphos, currently 1:1 in the very early stage.

I am sure you noticed the game between Paris and Fenerbahce being postponed.
The French claimed a ''peculiar situation'' leading to the decision to reschedule the game for a later date.

In my view this is pure BS. Basketball got rid of the Spanish mafia, we hope this is not replaced by the French (or should I say the Arab)? I understand situations like Covid19, or Force Majeure. But this is none of the above.

The postpone happened exactly when Paris appeared to be very weak, losing a number of games they shouldn't normally lose.

Thus, due to many different commitments on my part, I was unable to follow the match Newport County vs. Milton Keynes Dons, which ended minutes ago.
Well, just one question for those who watched the match very closely and analyzed the real quality of the attacking/defensive Departments of both teams - was it worth taking part in the O/U 9.5 line after the moment when the 9th goal was scored? I mean did the odds compilers wipe the value after the 82nd minute?

When it comes to the very next NFL clashes today, I think it was very challenging to calculate the probabilities of the O/U market in Texans @ Chiefs, I mean would Houston try to rock the solid low-scoring Kansas City's winning pattern?
And I have a different view on the conditions under which the proposed spread of (-7) would be possible at the end of the game, so in my opinion the Steelers @ Ravens clash will be an excellent tradable market in terms of various derivatives.

Your opinions?

The NFL, Texans at Chiefs ended with a score of 19:27 a few minutes ago,
And due to some triggered pre-match probabilities (P≈67%) that hinted at overcoming the initial offered consensus of O/U 42.5, some market positions were in effect even pre-game.
It was a great beauty to watch the offered line rise in the area of ​​52.5 and slowly fall to 46.
My market fighting vs the agencies here was similar to The Grande Belleza by Paolo Sorrentino.

A few minutes ago, the Ratio of the Baltimore Ravens' Rushing Yards to Pittsburgh's one was more than six to one, plus the quick additional assessment of the quality of both Quarterbacks today triggered a mid-term forecast that led to additional market positions that will be closed via TP/SL maximum to the end of the Third Quarter.

Not more than 10 pct of the capital that was involved in the Spread market was shot into the target, aiming to catch something similar to a nice Middle, a few moments before the line shifted from (-4.5) to (-5.5).
The next Criterion is not covered yet, the Baltimore Ravens are currently offered at (-9.5).

Any sharp NFL market player to share some thoughts / viewpoints in that thread?

HotSpurs vs L'pool now,
After the moment of scoring the last goal for the current result of 3:6,
Far Eastern Minotaurs went bonkers (O/U 9.5).

The NFL now,
LA Rams @ NY Jets, 6:9 at the moment.
The Matrix, containing the set of several almost equal probabilities for the outcomes from now on must be shortened, by removing the appropriate subset of lowest possible outcomes at the lowest possible risk, but especially for today:
(1) The personal estimation of what happened in the {1Q+2Q} interval played so far, should dominate over the traditional Stats forecast for EMA1 & EMA2 behavior for the second half;
(2) The auxiliary secondary Matrix & the auxiliary EMA1 & EMA2 were emergency built, assuming the current score but minus the 21 YDS field goal by Carlson.
(3) Others.

NFL, Minnesota @ Seattle are 20:17 right now,
Most of QB #14 Samuel Darnold's decisions on the pitch right now are exactly what I expect, so the current Vikings @ Seahawks match falls under the top forecasted scenario. However, I guess the odds compilers probably used similar tune-ups for their Model for today and already wiped the hypothetical value. That's why emergency switching to the Price Action approach could earn some additional things in the rest of the {4Q}.

On another screen, I spotted very interesting things happening right now at Miami Gardens, but I had absolutely no time to prepare any Model regarding the 49ers @ Dolphins, I hope you had much time to make the right trading plan. Regretfully, I can't afford to touch that game.

And finally, one error on my part in the Eagles @ RedSkins market grid,
I was late to follow immediately the wise Trigger to put the appropriate MoneyLine positions in the Washington RedSkins' favor when they were trailing 7:21, so despite the confident consecutive market positions after the scoring by Terry McLaurin's TD + Gonzalez's FG (14:21), and later by Zaccheaus' TD + Gonzalez's FG (21:27) were pretty OK, let me mention again, that the value in the RedSkins' ML odds at the moment of the 7:21 was much greater.
Why? Just see the great comeback, inspired by QB # 5 Jayden Daniels, who else, in the final seconds:

youtube.com/watch?v=_T7IrZlnwMA&t=699s