How do you handle these kinds of situations?
- arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
I can imagine what would happen if # 5 Myers was successful in his 60 YDS Field Goal attempt at 27:24 in Minnesotta's favor, circa two minutes to go... Overtime? Likelihoods then?
- arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
Lovely-to-modeling Cypriot Soccer, Aris Limassol vs Omonia right now,
After many VAR appearances in the first half, some Handicap markets have interesting limits if you want to raise, you can do it, at least in some far outlets.
Let's watch the second half from now on.
After many VAR appearances in the first half, some Handicap markets have interesting limits if you want to raise, you can do it, at least in some far outlets.
Let's watch the second half from now on.
- arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
The NFL, Browns @ Ravens was over minutes ago, 10:35 was the final result.
It's always interesting to watch this particular Football clash between Cleveland Browns#1 and Cleveland Browns#2 (i.e. Baltimore Ravens).
If any Forum Users are from Cleveland or Baltimore, please enlighten us on the hidden details of that real story.
Due to a similar reason that Soccer fans are interested in watching MK Dons vs. AFC Wimbledon (a battle for the legacy of the original Crazy Gang FC Wimbledon), or the legal battle over who exactly won the Champions League against Barcelona in 1986 - CSA Steaua București or FCSB (Steaua București)?
And so on.
It's very sad for the Cleveland team. Neither the NFL nor all Football lovers need too much of a self-executed "power differential" scenario.
What do I mean here? It's quite clear that the Browns have been unmotivated to give their best over the last few weeks so far.
Visible from space, the odds compilers simply killed the value of the most markets in which the Cleveland team participated, that's not from today or yesterday, so I didn't touch Browns @ Ravens today, but if you've put big positions there, I'd be happy to read your opinions on why your pre-game calculations show any value.
The last time my Model was categorical about the value of Cleveland odds in many markets was sometime in late October and part of November, for example, perhaps some people spotted the offered unreal pre-match Spread lines vs Steelers, as well as the shifting pre-match Spread line in big and wrongly calculated interval vs Ravens, what gave huge possibilities for nice Middles-like approaches later in the game. Warning, those pre-match calculations were valid for the current sporting form and motivation, observed about the Browns in the fall of 2024.
Nowadays, as I said above, they lack motivation, so I don't support the opinion that they are at the same sporting level as the Patriots & Titans.
In my view, when Cleveland has optimal tactics on the pitch and is motivated that day (pretty clearly visible if you love Football), they can crush the Spread line vs the LV Raiders (I know the odds-compilers mentality), as well as vs the Jaguars, so the current self-executed "PD" scenario by Browns is not the real objectivity. Here market makers work well, so beware!
I have some triggers for RedSkins @ Cowboys (plenty of markets, simply historical and recent impressions) as well as some slight final tune-ups needed for the Spread line market about Chiefs @ Broncos in the next hours.
Let's see what happens.
Your opinions?
It's always interesting to watch this particular Football clash between Cleveland Browns#1 and Cleveland Browns#2 (i.e. Baltimore Ravens).
If any Forum Users are from Cleveland or Baltimore, please enlighten us on the hidden details of that real story.
Due to a similar reason that Soccer fans are interested in watching MK Dons vs. AFC Wimbledon (a battle for the legacy of the original Crazy Gang FC Wimbledon), or the legal battle over who exactly won the Champions League against Barcelona in 1986 - CSA Steaua București or FCSB (Steaua București)?
And so on.
It's very sad for the Cleveland team. Neither the NFL nor all Football lovers need too much of a self-executed "power differential" scenario.
What do I mean here? It's quite clear that the Browns have been unmotivated to give their best over the last few weeks so far.
Visible from space, the odds compilers simply killed the value of the most markets in which the Cleveland team participated, that's not from today or yesterday, so I didn't touch Browns @ Ravens today, but if you've put big positions there, I'd be happy to read your opinions on why your pre-game calculations show any value.
The last time my Model was categorical about the value of Cleveland odds in many markets was sometime in late October and part of November, for example, perhaps some people spotted the offered unreal pre-match Spread lines vs Steelers, as well as the shifting pre-match Spread line in big and wrongly calculated interval vs Ravens, what gave huge possibilities for nice Middles-like approaches later in the game. Warning, those pre-match calculations were valid for the current sporting form and motivation, observed about the Browns in the fall of 2024.
Nowadays, as I said above, they lack motivation, so I don't support the opinion that they are at the same sporting level as the Patriots & Titans.
In my view, when Cleveland has optimal tactics on the pitch and is motivated that day (pretty clearly visible if you love Football), they can crush the Spread line vs the LV Raiders (I know the odds-compilers mentality), as well as vs the Jaguars, so the current self-executed "PD" scenario by Browns is not the real objectivity. Here market makers work well, so beware!
I have some triggers for RedSkins @ Cowboys (plenty of markets, simply historical and recent impressions) as well as some slight final tune-ups needed for the Spread line market about Chiefs @ Broncos in the next hours.
Let's see what happens.
Your opinions?
- arbusers
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
I am coming back to this thread with a Euroleague comment.
I am impressed by the depth of 3 teams. Panathinaikos, Olympiacos and Monaco.
Panathinaikos has the luxury to keep Lorenzo Brown as a substitute, a player that would normally be a top selection in every European team. Olympiacos has the luxury to give Fillip Petrusev as a loan to another Euroleague team.
So at this very time, I see no chances for Real Madrid to make it to the final 4, probably not even to the top6. My selection as we speak would be Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, Monaco, being the clear favourites for the final four, with Fenerbahce, Red Star, Bayern and Paris fighting for the remaining seat.
Here are the odds provided by Stoiximan today:
The bottom line is that Real Madrid and Barcelona are lay opportunities as we speak.
I am impressed by the depth of 3 teams. Panathinaikos, Olympiacos and Monaco.
Panathinaikos has the luxury to keep Lorenzo Brown as a substitute, a player that would normally be a top selection in every European team. Olympiacos has the luxury to give Fillip Petrusev as a loan to another Euroleague team.
So at this very time, I see no chances for Real Madrid to make it to the final 4, probably not even to the top6. My selection as we speak would be Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, Monaco, being the clear favourites for the final four, with Fenerbahce, Red Star, Bayern and Paris fighting for the remaining seat.
Here are the odds provided by Stoiximan today:
The bottom line is that Real Madrid and Barcelona are lay opportunities as we speak.
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- arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
The NFL Playoffs, RedSkins @ Buccaneers are about to start within 30 minutes,
The RedSkins return to the playoff scene today after their last appearance in the 2020/21 NFL season, when they played against the same Buccaneers team again. As far as I recall, that day His Football Majesty Tom Brady crushed Washington with two passing Touchdowns, as well as helping a lot in the subsequent playoff games, so that Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl in the end;
Moving on to today: As for the RedSkins(+3) Spread line offered, I have a different opinion. In my tune-ups for today I prepared a complex mix:
- The offered spread by the agencies is outside of the top two leading probabilities according to the Model;
- No matter whether RedSkins relied upon the Quarterback roles of Jayden Daniels or even Marcus Mariota when needed to substitute # 5, the very evident 3 or 4 preferred tactical RedSkins' patterns on the pitch are pretty clear.
However, that's very clear for the opponent's Coach as well, so a double-edged sword is possible here and that's why in order to clear my trading plan in that paragraph, Tampa Bay's errors on the pitch vs Dallas were re-analyzed;
Why? The Cowboys were put into my Rubicon 2.0 sub-Project for a reason;
The moments when the Buccaneers lost stability and under exactly what conditions that may happen, are clear to some extent after what is spotted during the pre-season and main season so far;
- Also included in the mix are some Propositions markets for McLaurin (Props regarding receiving, of course) and Daniels (regarding attempts). If you follow and study that team, you know what parameters are needed to specifically describe Terry & Jayden's play, so there are a few Propositions around, where the Risk/Reward Ratio is more than acceptable;
- Under the influence of some re-testing in the last hours, some Take Profit / Stop Loss points were moved; Re-analysing Dan Quinn's decisions pointed out something;
- The unique ability of the new 2024/25 RedSkins lineup to play unpredictably in the final minutes in some clashes, and sometimes the pre-match odds mean nothing. So if a strong signal appears (no noise), then urgent hedging is therefore necessary long before the Risk reaches an unacceptable level;
- And so on.
I'll be happy to read your points of view.
The RedSkins return to the playoff scene today after their last appearance in the 2020/21 NFL season, when they played against the same Buccaneers team again. As far as I recall, that day His Football Majesty Tom Brady crushed Washington with two passing Touchdowns, as well as helping a lot in the subsequent playoff games, so that Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl in the end;
Moving on to today: As for the RedSkins(+3) Spread line offered, I have a different opinion. In my tune-ups for today I prepared a complex mix:
- The offered spread by the agencies is outside of the top two leading probabilities according to the Model;
- No matter whether RedSkins relied upon the Quarterback roles of Jayden Daniels or even Marcus Mariota when needed to substitute # 5, the very evident 3 or 4 preferred tactical RedSkins' patterns on the pitch are pretty clear.
However, that's very clear for the opponent's Coach as well, so a double-edged sword is possible here and that's why in order to clear my trading plan in that paragraph, Tampa Bay's errors on the pitch vs Dallas were re-analyzed;
Why? The Cowboys were put into my Rubicon 2.0 sub-Project for a reason;
The moments when the Buccaneers lost stability and under exactly what conditions that may happen, are clear to some extent after what is spotted during the pre-season and main season so far;
- Also included in the mix are some Propositions markets for McLaurin (Props regarding receiving, of course) and Daniels (regarding attempts). If you follow and study that team, you know what parameters are needed to specifically describe Terry & Jayden's play, so there are a few Propositions around, where the Risk/Reward Ratio is more than acceptable;
- Under the influence of some re-testing in the last hours, some Take Profit / Stop Loss points were moved; Re-analysing Dan Quinn's decisions pointed out something;
- The unique ability of the new 2024/25 RedSkins lineup to play unpredictably in the final minutes in some clashes, and sometimes the pre-match odds mean nothing. So if a strong signal appears (no noise), then urgent hedging is therefore necessary long before the Risk reaches an unacceptable level;
- And so on.
I'll be happy to read your points of view.
- arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 30
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Deutsche Bundesliga, Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund, second half in progress,
What's been going on with Borussia's Defensive Department lately?
Although goals were expected to be conceded vs Bayer'04 according to the Model's forecasts, no one clear trigger was activated to alert us to the high probability of three goals being conceded within the first 19 minutes a few days ago.
During the first half vs Holstein Kiel, from what I noticed on the video feed, Nico Schlotterbeck and Julian Ryerson were again very suboptimal on the pitch, and Emre Can had to perform more tasks.
In other words, the old pattern is back in effect (why did that happen again, Mr. Nuri Şahin?), so around the 10th minute, today's tune-ups happily triggered the correct likelihoods. In addition, large amounts are being accepted by the agencies in these markets, if you know what are you fighting for.
Let's see what happens from the 68th minute afterward...
Does anyone here model and closely follow Borussia here?
Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
arb12 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2024 7:46 pmBorussia Dortmund vs Bochum'48 right now,
The live Model alerted me to a few things:
- See the similarities between the defenses of Borussia and Bayer'04;
- See the similarities today vs Bochum'48 and Borussia vs Mainz'05 (May 2023);
- More and more variables stabilize in the first half and now in the second;
- Look at the contemporary organizational skills of the Borussia midfield in terms of powering the attacking department. Compare these with Bayer'04 Midfield/Attack;
- Re-evaluation very quick after the first half today (Borussia vs Bochum);
- Think again of the Achilles heel of Borussia today (the Defensive Dept) and re-estimate again;
- The most probable moves by Sahin / Zeidler according to your observations so far;
- The initial and final re-evaluation after the first half of all of the above in your live Model;
- Will Borussia achieve something similar to what they did against Mainz'05 in 2023? Or will it resurrect like Bayer'04 vs Wolfsburg a few days ago? Again detailed Midfield/Attack comparison, as stated above;
- I will keep a close eye on Borussia's Defensive department after the 60th minute today. This will generate stability for whatever the outcome ultimately is; Ryerson, and Schlotterbeck are not pretty well today, and Emre Can can't cover all the errors;
Any Modelers here?
Deutsche Bundesliga, Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund, second half in progress,
What's been going on with Borussia's Defensive Department lately?
Although goals were expected to be conceded vs Bayer'04 according to the Model's forecasts, no one clear trigger was activated to alert us to the high probability of three goals being conceded within the first 19 minutes a few days ago.
During the first half vs Holstein Kiel, from what I noticed on the video feed, Nico Schlotterbeck and Julian Ryerson were again very suboptimal on the pitch, and Emre Can had to perform more tasks.
In other words, the old pattern is back in effect (why did that happen again, Mr. Nuri Şahin?), so around the 10th minute, today's tune-ups happily triggered the correct likelihoods. In addition, large amounts are being accepted by the agencies in these markets, if you know what are you fighting for.
Let's see what happens from the 68th minute afterward...
Does anyone here model and closely follow Borussia here?
- neopas
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