Arbusers

I can imagine what would happen if # 5 Myers was successful in his 60 YDS Field Goal attempt at 27:24 in Minnesotta's favor, circa two minutes to go... Overtime? Likelihoods then?

Lovely-to-modeling Cypriot Soccer, Aris Limassol vs Omonia right now,

After many VAR appearances in the first half, some Handicap markets have interesting limits if you want to raise, you can do it, at least in some far outlets.

Let's watch the second half from now on.

The NFL, Browns @ Ravens was over minutes ago, 10:35 was the final result.
It's always interesting to watch this particular Football clash between Cleveland Browns#1 and Cleveland Browns#2 (i.e. Baltimore Ravens).
If any Forum Users are from Cleveland or Baltimore, please enlighten us on the hidden details of that real story.


Due to a similar reason that Soccer fans are interested in watching MK Dons vs. AFC Wimbledon (a battle for the legacy of the original Crazy Gang FC Wimbledon), or the legal battle over who exactly won the Champions League against Barcelona in 1986 - CSA Steaua București or FCSB (Steaua București)?
And so on.


It's very sad for the Cleveland team. Neither the NFL nor all Football lovers need too much of a self-executed "power differential" scenario.
What do I mean here? It's quite clear that the Browns have been unmotivated to give their best over the last few weeks so far.
Visible from space, the odds compilers simply killed the value of the most markets in which the Cleveland team participated, that's not from today or yesterday, so I didn't touch Browns @ Ravens today, but if you've put big positions there, I'd be happy to read your opinions on why your pre-game calculations show any value.

The last time my Model was categorical about the value of Cleveland odds in many markets was sometime in late October and part of November, for example, perhaps some people spotted the offered unreal pre-match Spread lines vs Steelers, as well as the shifting pre-match Spread line in big and wrongly calculated interval vs Ravens, what gave huge possibilities for nice Middles-like approaches later in the game. Warning, those pre-match calculations were valid for the current sporting form and motivation, observed about the Browns in the fall of 2024.

Nowadays, as I said above, they lack motivation, so I don't support the opinion that they are at the same sporting level as the Patriots & Titans.
In my view, when Cleveland has optimal tactics on the pitch and is motivated that day (pretty clearly visible if you love Football), they can crush the Spread line vs the LV Raiders (I know the odds-compilers mentality), as well as vs the Jaguars, so the current self-executed "PD" scenario by Browns is not the real objectivity. Here market makers work well, so beware!

I have some triggers for RedSkins @ Cowboys (plenty of markets, simply historical and recent impressions) as well as some slight final tune-ups needed for the Spread line market about Chiefs @ Broncos in the next hours.
Let's see what happens.

Your opinions?

I am coming back to this thread with a Euroleague comment.

I am impressed by the depth of 3 teams. Panathinaikos, Olympiacos and Monaco.
Panathinaikos has the luxury to keep Lorenzo Brown as a substitute, a player that would normally be a top selection in every European team. Olympiacos has the luxury to give Fillip Petrusev as a loan to another Euroleague team.

So at this very time, I see no chances for Real Madrid to make it to the final 4, probably not even to the top6. My selection as we speak would be Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, Monaco, being the clear favourites for the final four, with Fenerbahce, Red Star, Bayern and Paris fighting for the remaining seat.

Here are the odds provided by Stoiximan today:


The bottom line is that Real Madrid and Barcelona are lay opportunities as we speak.

The NFL Playoffs, RedSkins @ Buccaneers are about to start within 30 minutes,

The RedSkins return to the playoff scene today after their last appearance in the 2020/21 NFL season, when they played against the same Buccaneers team again. As far as I recall, that day His Football Majesty Tom Brady crushed Washington with two passing Touchdowns, as well as helping a lot in the subsequent playoff games, so that Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl in the end;

Moving on to today: As for the RedSkins(+3) Spread line offered, I have a different opinion. In my tune-ups for today I prepared a complex mix:

- The offered spread by the agencies is outside of the top two leading probabilities according to the Model;

- No matter whether RedSkins relied upon the Quarterback roles of Jayden Daniels or even Marcus Mariota when needed to substitute # 5, the very evident 3 or 4 preferred tactical RedSkins' patterns on the pitch are pretty clear.
However, that's very clear for the opponent's Coach as well, so a double-edged sword is possible here and that's why in order to clear my trading plan in that paragraph, Tampa Bay's errors on the pitch vs Dallas were re-analyzed;
Why? The Cowboys were put into my Rubicon 2.0 sub-Project for a reason;
The moments when the Buccaneers lost stability and under exactly what conditions that may happen, are clear to some extent after what is spotted during the pre-season and main season so far;

- Also included in the mix are some Propositions markets for McLaurin (Props regarding receiving, of course) and Daniels (regarding attempts). If you follow and study that team, you know what parameters are needed to specifically describe Terry & Jayden's play, so there are a few Propositions around, where the Risk/Reward Ratio is more than acceptable;

- Under the influence of some re-testing in the last hours, some Take Profit / Stop Loss points were moved; Re-analysing Dan Quinn's decisions pointed out something;

- The unique ability of the new 2024/25 RedSkins lineup to play unpredictably in the final minutes in some clashes, and sometimes the pre-match odds mean nothing. So if a strong signal appears (no noise), then urgent hedging is therefore necessary long before the Risk reaches an unacceptable level;

- And so on.

I'll be happy to read your points of view.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Fri Sep 27, 2024 7:46 pm

Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum'48 right now,

The live Model alerted me to a few things:
- See the similarities between the defenses of Borussia and Bayer'04;
- See the similarities today vs Bochum'48 and Borussia vs Mainz'05 (May 2023);
- More and more variables stabilize in the first half and now in the second;
- Look at the contemporary organizational skills of the Borussia midfield in terms of powering the attacking department. Compare these with Bayer'04 Midfield/Attack;
- Re-evaluation very quick after the first half today (Borussia vs Bochum);
- Think again of the Achilles heel of Borussia today (the Defensive Dept) and re-estimate again;
- The most probable moves by Sahin / Zeidler according to your observations so far;
- The initial and final re-evaluation after the first half of all of the above in your live Model;
- Will Borussia achieve something similar to what they did against Mainz'05 in 2023? Or will it resurrect like Bayer'04 vs Wolfsburg a few days ago? Again detailed Midfield/Attack comparison, as stated above;
- I will keep a close eye on Borussia's Defensive department after the 60th minute today. This will generate stability for whatever the outcome ultimately is; Ryerson, and Schlotterbeck are not pretty well today, and Emre Can can't cover all the errors;

Any Modelers here?

Deutsche Bundesliga, Holstein Kiel vs Borussia Dortmund, second half in progress,

What's been going on with Borussia's Defensive Department lately?
Although goals were expected to be conceded vs Bayer'04 according to the Model's forecasts, no one clear trigger was activated to alert us to the high probability of three goals being conceded within the first 19 minutes a few days ago.

During the first half vs Holstein Kiel, from what I noticed on the video feed, Nico Schlotterbeck and Julian Ryerson were again very suboptimal on the pitch, and Emre Can had to perform more tasks.
In other words, the old pattern is back in effect (why did that happen again, Mr. Nuri Şahin?), so around the 10th minute, today's tune-ups happily triggered the correct likelihoods. In addition, large amounts are being accepted by the agencies in these markets, if you know what are you fighting for.

Let's see what happens from the 68th minute afterward...

Does anyone here model and closely follow Borussia here?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:44 am

My selection as we speak would be Panathinaikos, Olympiacos, Monaco, being the clear favourites for the final four, with Fenerbahce, Red Star, Bayern and Paris fighting for the remaining seat.

If Euroleague was to end today, you d hit the Jackpot.

The NFL 2024/25 Grand Finale, Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles has finished with a score of 22:40,

I'm pretty sure all the Colleagues, i.e. the Modelers, gathered thousands and thousands and thousands of sheets of Data & Stats before that clash to process and build appropriate tune-ups for today so I won't add any further information here in that thread today.

Let me share an unconventional hypothesis that helped me the following:
(1)To model the Super Bowl clash pre-match and the main probabilities versus the offered odds;
(2) To shape my trading plan before today's game - choosing appropriate Entry Market Points, Stop Loss Points, Take Profit Points, choosing and rationale of specific Risk/Reward Ratios for today according to the last calculations and forecast by the Model and so forth.

Although I have watched every possible video signal from the NFL 2024/25 so far from the preseason and the start of the season to the playoffs, these long days of the last month or two I have re-watched every NFL 2024/25 game to gather additional impressions about all the Teams, Players and Coaches involved in, in order to discover additional nuances that I hadn't paid attention to before.

In the end, based on what I saw in my preparation for the SuperBowl markets, I decided to take a non-standard approach - through the Soccer analogy, appropriated here due to created mind brainstorming tasks Target∈{(X+Xprime)+(Y+Yprime)+Z}, for today's modeling purposes only:

The "X" component subtask - I perceive the KC Chiefs as the greatest Milan ever under Arrigo Sacchi - here I am referring to Coach Andy Reid's unique approach to seeking to balance unbalanced Departments, which has yielded 80 percent of the Chiefs' traditional winning games thus far.

Sacchi's Milan - the strongest Defensive Department in their League, built by Carlo Ancelotti, Franco Baresi, Paolo Maldini, Alessandro Costacurta and so on.
The Andy Reid's KC Chiefs' Defensive Dept year-by-year? Generally said, they have an exceptional Defensive Dept in the NFL, if not the strongest.

Sacchi's Milan - Ruud Gullit, Marco Van Basten, and Frank Rijkaard made the difference, helped by midfielders such as Carlo Ancelotti (but he helped also in the defense!), Roberto Donadoni etc. Usually 1:0 or minimal similar success, in the most economical way, despite the truly monstrous strength of the team. That economical style is not the best for passionate Soccer observers, but Sacchi knows - it pays off with longevity in terms of a Top-Notch and successful Milan.
The Andy Reid's KC Chiefs' year-by-year - the Tight End Travis Kelce, the Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and the unique Kicker Harrison Butker made the difference, helped by Special Teams Dept. Usually very minimal success, in the most economical way, despite the truly monstrous strength of the team. That economical style is not the best for passionate Football observers, but Reid knows - it pays off with longevity in terms of a Top-Notch and successful KC Chiefs.

Arrigo Sacchi's Milan reached the N-number of major finals in Soccer.
Andy Reid's KC Chiefs reached the N-number of major finals in Football.
Also, for the purpose of the "X prime" component analysis, Carlo Ancelotti reached the N-number of major finals in Soccer.

When Arrigo Sacchi's Milan loses a single match, it's on the main TV news.
When Andy Reid's Kansas City loses a single match, it's on the main TV news.

Additionally, when Arrigo Sacchi's Milan suffered a major loss due to a general failure of their Defensive Department, it was not just on the main TV news, it's a worldwide breaking news story - vs Napoli, vs Olympique de Marseille etc.
Additionally, when Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs suffered a major loss due to a general failure of their Defensive Department, it was not just on the main TV news, it's a worldwide breaking news story - 0:24 vs Philadelphia Eagles after the first half today in the Super Bowl LIX, and 22:40 in the end.

The "X prime" component subtask - a general personal assessment on my part of some similarities between Andy Reid's decisions on the fly and those of Carlo Ancelotti as Real Madrid Coach, including the very rare occasions such as very poor defensive decisions and the lost overall balance between the Departments on the pitch - for example, Ancelotti's poor defense versus Barcelona and Reid's strange tactical decisions vs the Buffalo Bills in the regular season, lost by 21:30 not only due to unstoppable Quarterback Josh Allen via his 262 Passing YDS and a passingTD + a rushing TD, but also I spotted bad coaching decisions by Reid, etc.

The subtask of the component "Y" - in my opinion, the Philadelphia Eagles as a monolithic team perform very similarly to Diego Simeone's Atlético de Madrid - I spotted strong defense and very moderate desire for heavy attack - below the level of acceptable reasonable risk, but sometimes they like to attack hard, but not in a style that could threaten their defensive capabilities (unlike Carlo Ancelotti's Real, who placed three dedicated defenders versus Barcelona to maximize the attacking style and conceded 5 goals (in addition of the 4 goals conceded in the previous match vs Barcelona), this risk is unthinkable under Diego Simeone, but Atlético de Madrid and Philadelphia Eagles respectively missed some victories within the season due to overthinking the defense).

The "Y prime" component subtask - in order to make my custom Model much more accurate, I decided to rework the 2024/25 Philadelphia Eagles forecast via a better version of the 2024/25 Atlético de Madrid, I mean adding two options: Álvaro Morata in the attacking role to model some similarities with Saquon Barkley, as well as Diego Godín in the defensive role in order to improve the pre-evaluation of the Eagles' Special Teams Dept when they helped the defense.

The subtask of the component "Z" - the preliminary assessment and construction of probabilities for all hypotheses outside the array of the ordinary probabilities and events seen in the NFL 2024/25, here are the Eagles' monstrous victories vs the RedSkins in the Conference Championship round, the probabilities of another monstrous victory vs the Chiefs, the probability of a collapse of the KC Chiefs' Defensive Department, and so on, but here are also calculated the probabilities of events of the same magnitude, but in the opposite way, for example, the percentage probability of the Eagles conceding a big loss today, the percentage probability that Saquon Barkley will break the Super Bowl rushing yards record today (Washington RedSkins running back Timmy Smith rushed for 204 YDS in a Super Bowl vs Broncos a long time ago), etc., etc.

I m impressed by the analogies and the imagination enabled in your analysis. Very stochastic, something the machines will not learn any time soon.

From my side, I understood that odds in the MoneyLine were not real and fair. I will explain why:

1. All the celebrity planet was for Kansas. This created a positive momentum for Kansas odds to drop, as a lot of dump money went for them.
2. Trumps remarks right before the game was for Kansas too, this brought even more dump money for them.
3. Kansas coming from 2 trophies in a row were considered as the natural favourite. Also, they played in 5 out of the 6 last Super Bowls since 2020.
4. Philadelphia's last final was in 2018. They had things to prove, and the desire of the new blood in contrast of the spoiled by the media (and social media) stars.

With these in mind, I believe the 52/48 odds weren't real. Maybe they should be 45/55 or something in this vicinity.

What do you think of that?

500k per bet. What is that outlet? I would like to see his eyes blinking.

Smells like a scam. Yeah 500k, why not 3 millions? If something look too good to be true its a rip off. At 1.3 when real odds are 1.8 maybe...

blackjack wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:47 pm

500k per bet. What is that outlet? I would like to see his eyes blinking.

Pay close attention. He is speaking about an Outlaw, not an Outlet. Wondering who is that ''Jackson'', never heard of him before.

Grant wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 3:59 pm

Smells like a scam. Yeah 500k, why not 3 millions? If something look too good to be true its a rip off.

Unlike other so called ''famous bettors'', Voulgaris has a real betting record and past. It seems to me that he has a way to quantify and measure everything and his way is usually correct and pays out real money. Not long ago when he bought CD Castellón he made a statement that circulated a lot, saying the team has 53% chance to win the league. Bookmakers' models were showing other things and therefore they underestimated the team. It was real value. In the end, his team won the league.

Other than that, it worths mentioning that he owes a lot to his father who took him to Vegas and encouraged him to go pro in poker. I am not saying we should do the same to our sons, but teaching a teenager poker, has far bigger value than scratching b@lls with play station.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 18, 2025 4:55 am

...
It seems to me that he has a way to quantify and measure everything and his way is usually correct and pays out real money. Not long ago when he bought CD Castellón he made a statement that circulated a lot, saying the team has 53% chance to win the league. Bookmakers' models were showing other things and therefore they underestimated the team. It was real value. In the end, his team won the league.
...

The roots of the real idea for which that Forum topic was created.
The first step before taking any action is to calculate the real probabilities of everything in this Life, using our own genuine Method that we have created, staying away from the conventional wisdom that puts us in the rut of mediocrity.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:43 am

The roots of the real idea for which that Forum topic was created.
The first step before taking any action is to calculate the real probabilities of everything in this Life, using our own genuine Method that we have created, staying away from the conventional wisdom that puts us in the rut of mediocrity.

Voulgaris goes several steps ahead, mentioning that he has a quantifying formula that helps him evaluate a player before acquiring him for his team. It is not a surprise that he has a great hit ratio as most of the players he brings in are excellent. Wondering where else is his using his formulas. This is definitely a guy to watch and put him in a Hall of Fame. Again... unlike other so called ''legendary bettors'' with no real betting record and skin in the game.

Let me remind you this guy was working for the Mavericks in NBA.

One of the best features of Flat Racing is the ability to reduce many of the hundreds of observed Variables and focus on compiling an overall fundamental and technical assessment of the Jockeys/Tracks&Surfaces/Horses/Trainers you are following.
From this point on, compiling the real probability interval on your part and converting it into fair odds for the appropriate markets (in order to compare them with the oddsmakers' odds) is reduced in time.
Naturally, it is important to develop a relatively adequate, time-tested forecasting Model, but it is even more important to regularly improve the know-how for estimating its hundreds of parameters (although you can NEVER achieve perfection).

Santa Anita/ R1/7F Claim: the Legendary Frankie Dettori is goin' to start next few minutes via Mr. Leisure, let's see what happens.
I spotted that when Dettori is short-priced below X.XX by oddsmakers, the assessment of whether or not hypothetical value exists for his Win at all is based neither on Dettori's most recent period (11.7647 S/R) nor on the most recent annual S/R of 16.44144, or 20.45662 respectively in the long term.
Similarly, the Model recommends quite a few different Methods for pre-race building of hypothetical Value not only for Win, but also for Place, A vs. B, and so forth.

Your video analysis of each race, the Jockey's control, and your own speed assessment of each furlong of the track are very useful in my opinion.