Arbusers

Addendum: despite Dettori's start for R1 being announced earlier today, he was no runner in the end, so SA/R1 does not count towards the overall Statistics.

Addendum 2: In addition to Stats processing that feeds the forecasting Model, the FM is also partially aided by custom Graphics (I mean EMA1 vs EMA2, i.e. GoldenCross vs DeathCross and other ideas), that's why when Lanfranco's odds are long-priced by oddsmakers, some of the Wins/Place/AvsB are overestimated before the race. But among the general problems here is the right pre-selection of appropriate parameters for building the Graphs for every occasion, as well as working much better in two-digit Starting Prices for Dettori on FlatRaces compared to one-digit, the reason is unknown at the moment. The last caught Valuable odds was during SantaAnita/Race8 via A Fleet Ride (at a perfect SP level) a few days ago, but those tune-ups didn't generate any signal in the next races and I didn't understand why. Not to mention the specifical short SP below X.XX, when quite a different Method is useful, but at the level of X.XX the Model detects % value if the condition of Y is covered, but very often Y is not covered, and other problems.

Soccer, Zambia Ladies scored vs Malawi Ladies and the match was suddenly suspended for no reason given, I have no video signal, what happened to these teams a while ago? Thanks.

Well, Derby de România: FC Steaua București (FCSB) vs FC Dinamo București starts in a few hours

In my opinion, for some reason, the exact outcome of that derby depends largely on the possible creative decisions of Željko Kopić, while Elias Charalambous' tactical approaches are well-known (remember his Golden Treble vs Răzvan Lucescu's PAOK in October'24 and twice in February'25 within the UEFA Europa League competition).

I spotted that despite some rare suboptimal interventions by Ștefan Târnovanu, if the FCSB Defensive Department is optimally set up that day, most of the threats are successfully blocked, but not all of these ones - do you remember the FCSB team under Nicolae Dică?
I'm also fully aware of the changing nuances of David Miculescu and Daniel Bîrligea's current approach to the specifics of every game they're involved in.

Again, when you compile your own odds on markets such as BTTS, Asian HandiCap and so on, in order to compare them to the odds offered by the odds compilers, in addition to what was said above in that opinion, take into account not only the in-depth specifics of the starting line-up for Dinamo București, but also whether Željko Kopić will overcome his traditional overcaution, which is not a traditional characteristic of the historically high-flying Dinamo team, and whether he will very early attack tactically the underperforming Steaua players, as well as the probability intervals of such clashes.
If that happens early, you can reduce the weight of the ratings for clashes of Dinamo vs Farul Constanța and FC Botoșani to an appropriate level.

Additionally, some Asians are offering valuable pct today.

Your opinions?

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 23, 2025 3:44 pm

...
In my opinion, for some reason, the exact outcome of that derby depends largely on the possible creative decisions of Željko Kopić
...
but also whether Željko Kopić will overcome his traditional overcaution, which is not a traditional characteristic of the historically high-flying Dinamo
...

While I opened an additional market position after Stipe Perica's very logical goal (Dinamo București's very offensive performance in the 1st half so far is as forecasted), seconds later the FCSB equalized the score, so BTTS 1stHalf positions won.
My Model suggested reinvesting the relevant percentage of current profit in new live AH points, based on unstable defensive positions and a vivid midfield and sharp attack for both Teams...
Let's see what happens...

Although Leeds United FC vs WBA produced the very logical BTTS 1st half according to the pre-analysis, I am puzzled why LUFC only relied on one outfield pure forward plus three hidden offensive players and did not change the overall scheme of play, circa ten minutes to go.
Your ideas on why this is?

Omonia Nicosia vs Pafos is goin' to start in a few minutes,

I'm amazed that this is such an underrated derby.

The key tune-ups, incorporated in my trading plan are based on:
(1) Starting line-ups by Anastasiou & Carcedo;
(2) In my opinion, those are the hottest-form Cypriot elite Soccer teams in the last conditional custom Stats period (compared to the AEK Larnaca & Aris Limassol's ELO);
(3) Derby #4 between those teams from December '24 to the present day;
(4) The pre-analysis component for derby #4, based on the very recent UEFA Conference League clashes (i.e. derbies #2 and #3) should be rethought a little differently for obvious reasons;
(5) Derby #1's Statistics (domestic competition) were also processed in a specific order into today's Model, taking into account some in-depth observations over the past three months;
(6) Others.

Does anyone model those? I'd love to read your opinions.

Rapid București vs FCSB at the moment,

Hard-to-see new game nuances, which hypothetically would affect some submarkets, were noticed on the pitch after the red card shown minutes ago. Additionally, Rapid strives for more possession and to occupy certain areas, versus Steaua's predefined opportunities to launch effectively much sharper attacks from nowhere after lulling the opponent's vigilance.
This is the basis on which I've built my opinions and probabilities in the relevant markets.

What is your opinion on what is happening right now in Giuleşti?

The Ha'al derby in Week 25, Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. Maccabi Haifa is about to start in a few minutes,

(1) I think a reasonable correction in some market positions is valuable compared to the Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. Maccabi Haifa's derby for the State Cup days ago;
(2) Be'er Sheva is performing very well overall except for small fluctuations when they faced XXX factors;
(2) Haifa has some of the hottest recent Stats parameters when they are playing away, but I decided to adjust their overall ELO with an appropriate coefficient when they are visiting the current leader;
(3) One of the key moments here will be whether both teams will adopt the tactical approach they showed on February 27th from the very start. I think the likelihood of that is different than it was a few days ago, but who knows?
(4) I look forward to seeing the exact implementation of some necessary changes to the Defensive Dept (i.e. securing measures) for Haifa;
(5) This is too weird for a strong leader, but Be'er Sheva is very vulnerable (i.e. unbalanced relationships between Departments in many matches so far) in general before the late substitutions, it seems that only Maccabi Tel Aviv twice and Maccabi BR were able to take advantage of this;

Let's see what happens.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 03, 2025 6:03 pm

The Ha'al derby in Week 25, Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. Maccabi Haifa
...

Finished minutes ago and was probably the best enjoyable and quality game of the season in this league so far with exceptional quality performance for both teams under the cool-blooded refereeing of Sapir Berman - I wondered exactly how the referee would cool the tension on the pitch in the first half, when the Greens' #44 was brought down in the middle of the pitch, and a few seconds later the Reds wanted a penalty. No conflict on the pitch was conceded, and the case was fixed.

Post-match verdict: most of the things in the Model's forecasts were very relevant (the value positions placed pre-match and to some during the game).
Not to mention the exceptional Stats material and personal impressions gathered during this game, close to a certain extent to the preliminary analysis.

However, one big error was noticed in the pre-match forecasts - the exact number of goals scored and the great ability of a tradable event.
No existing Model is even close to perfect, so fine re-tunings will be considered.

Any Modelers' opinions about that League/Match?

Kecskeméti TE vs Videoton(Fehérvár) starts in a few hours,

Is there any reliable pre-match info for this match, explaining those odds? My calculations for implied probabilities differ significantly from those published by the odds compilers.

Is something weird going on here or am I delusional?

arb12 wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 07, 2025 5:05 pm

Kecskeméti TE vs Videoton(Fehérvár) starts in a few hours,

Is there any reliable pre-match info for this match, explaining those odds? My calculations for implied probabilities differ significantly from those published by the odds compilers.

Is something weird going on here or am I delusional?

In my opinion, the significant difference between these two teams is not only indicated in their custom-built ELO, but also in their personalized Statistics within the Championship so far, and their temporary form /starting lineups/ injuries, etc before this match, are not enough to distribute such initially offered odds across the markets they participated in a few hours ago (BTTS, the AH lines, 1x2, the O/U lines, and so on, and so forth).

From the live video signal:
The 1stHalf impressions - as once Victor Hugo said: "God created the Cat so that People would have a Tiger to pet at home."
The time interval between scoring the very early 1st and the 2nd (the second was disallowed by VAR) goals - the Fehérvár team hinted at the manner of attacking in a very slow, and pseudo-confident pace through the central zone, while the Kecskeméti team quickly retreated from the center zone and positioned himself compactly in the defense (performed several times), thus they're creating the feeling in the opponent of a false Favorite.
Strangely, the violet team's Attacking Dept encountered no resistance in its flank attacks.
Furthermore, the behavior of the whites' Defensive Department seemed to me like they wanted to make sure that after conceding the ridiculous first goal and after VAR canceled the second easy goal, the agencies' pre-match favorite would score again and that happened too easily circa the 41st minute.
The managing of the Videoton's attacks in the 1stHalf was in the "Paper Tiger"-style for unknown reasons (again, I'm familiar with the true strength of that team).
So, in the 1stHalf the KTE team enjoyed the Tiger at home.

Most of the things I expected to happen today in my pre-match analysis logically happened, but only in the 2ndHalf.
I have no precise explanations for either the offered implied probabilities i.e. the pre-match odds by the odds compilers, or the behavior on the pitch in the first half.
I'm under the impression, that the gauleiter permitted something.

BTW, while watching Kristian Šekularac's performance for Videoton, I wonder if any elder Forum Members have watched / had personal impressions of Dragoslav Šekularac's play? If so, please, share your impressions here in the Forum.

Sometimes selection of games outside of the main focus of odds compilers generates a good likelihood of grabbing some value.
For example in one of today's Matrices are input APOEL vs Omonia (APOEL comes in the battle for Nicosia after several very recent losses, while Omonia overcame Pafos days ago in Derby # 4), Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague (both the teams have the current best short-term form in CZ), Inhulets Petrove vs Rukh Lviv (remember exactly through what tactics Inhulets defeated Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (which was managed by Mr. Yuriy Vernydub!!!) on March 2nd after the barbarians' airstrike postponed the March 1st match) and Hermannstadt vs Rapid București (the Romanian teams are seriously offered by some Asians and somehow some underrated details made this Championship very attractive for compiling your own odds versus offered ones).

I'd love to read the opinions of dedicated Modelers here.

The French Ligue One, Le Havre team,
Their last ten games tend to be in the forecasted by the Model Asian Handicaps within the Model implied Confidence Interval, say above 80 percent.
Le Havre just overturned Lyon away (22 down,31 up,46 up), but I'm pretty unsure whether a huge additional investment is preferable for the 2ndHalf today or not.
Your point of view?

Addendum: I also input into the calculation the results ∈ {the Matrix members that striving to avoid relegation} such as the Nantes victory vs the Lille and others.

The WTA Miami Open, Emma Răducanu vs. Amanda Anisimova has started very interestingly, what a clash between the new generation of Stars!

Despite the huge lack of time lately for in-depth modeling specifically of this beautiful kind of Sport, from time to time I introduce for processing appropriately selected Statistical parameters as well as personal impressions of the game of some players for the purposes of my own fundamental analysis.

Trying to form an opinion on the correct probabilities' range for today's game, I specifically used a pure experimental kind of Model here (currently in Alpha status), but mixing newly generated ideas with some of my old ideas (from Models in pre-Beta and Beta status), for instance trying to evaluate a pre-selected pair of players within a Matrix (both chosen within this one due to covering specific criteria I seek) and further forecasting every single member of the Matrix, some examples of my practices were {Nadal & Federer}, {Troicki & Tipsarević}, {Čilić & Nishikori}, {Karlović & Isner}, {Menéndez Maceiras & Víctor Estrella Burgos} and so on.
Bear in mind that the types of Matrices built on {Nadal & Federer} and similars, might contain more M x N elements, it is harder to evaluate the bigger array of elements more precisely on your part and after the final calculations, it's way harder to find a hypothetical value against the publicly offered pre-match odds, compared to those Matrices built on {Su-Wei Hsieh & Kimiko Date Krumm} and similars, with a possibility of fewer K x L elements (easier to evaluate and easier to minimize the inevitable errors inside) and after the final calculations, its easier to find a hypothetical value pre-match, if it exists.

Especially for the Miami Open 2025 (not only for today), I experimented with these:
I re-tuned the long-started Matrix {Leylah Fernandez & Emma Răducanu}, which started to fill in somewhere in 2021 from the famous US Open, but improved by those:
- Added 2018 Wimbledon data, due to obvious reasons;
- Truncated 2023 Emma Răducanu's Graphics and built forecasts upon 2023 custom extrapolations plus regular 2024/25 Graphics, insisted by some custom-tuned EMAs.
That helped to some extent to build some custom expectations for both Fernandez and Răducanu prior to their matches at Miami Open 2025 so far; Leylah is out of the board now (no pre-match value was found for Leylah's appearances at Miami 2025 according to this Method), but Emma vs Anisimova is a very curious game? Why?
- Emma's pre-match value was revealed before all of her matches so far at Miami 2025, but there is a question: Was Emma's calculated probability of victory against Kessler REAL, assuming the higher-ranked McCartney retired in the second set?
- I have some incomplete data in a custom Matrix built on {Sofia Kenin & Amanda Anisimova}. Regardless of some unestimated parameters, after the experimental processing of {Sofia Kenin & Amanda Anisimova} & {Leylah Fernandez & Emma Răducanu}, it seems to me that Anisimova's short-term/medium-term status is at a stationary point, while Răducanu's short-term/medium-term status is described as a currently indicated inflection point, that helped to place pre-match position, supported by abovementioned rationales.

Any Modelers' alternative Points of View?