BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:07 pm

arbusers wrote:
Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:01 am
Very interesting post but I have the question of the million.

I know it works very well to trade in Euroleague and NBA when games and opponents are tight, but which team would you be long first? So the question for me is to identify which team will get into the court with high testosterone and clear mind to get the initial points difference from the opponent. This I can't answer my self. And I m sure most basketball traders have the same question. What is left to be done, is simply guess who will take the initial points difference and some times this guess is wrong and makes you close the trade with a stop loss.
I personally decide how to react, provided that my own triggers arise.
I calculate very quickly some things, based on my experience, and many of my errors (thousands) and many of my wins (also thousands) constantly shape the improvement of my "fuzzy logic".
Naturally, these degrees of freedom of my decisions through this "fuzzy logic" are limited within the preset trading plan, risk management, and money management. Maybe that approach in a Beta stage is an error, that causes limited gains in the market, I'm still looking for the Way.


arbusers wrote:
Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:01 am

As for Itoudis, he is the #1 coach in Europe and beyond, second to none. One of the things I admire in Itoudis is the way he handles 3 pointers with his players. It seems to me that he is passing a certain psychology to his players and makes them being very good at 3 pointers even if their previous record is bad. There must be a job secret there, we will know in some years from now. Also, have a look at Nick Calathes. He is more stable than ever, a player you can trust more under Itoudis, much more the other coach star called Saras.
Agree 100%.
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6212
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:09 am

Yesterday night we had an iconic example of the problem that I previously described with the Olympiacos V Fenerbahce game. Olympiacos left no space for breathing to Fener and that was NOT the game to trade. No chance to bet in an upset, no chance to bet in a come back.
If the opening bet was for Fener, the trader would be left with 2 choices:
a. Let the bet run till the end (disaster).
b. Lay the bet when stop loss is met (taking a small loss).

On the other hand if the opening bet was for Olympiacos, the trader would again have 2 choices:
a. Let the bet run till the end (triumph).
b. Lay the bet when profit expectation is met (taking a smaller profit).

You need to know basketball in depth to identify the correct position. You also need to know both teams in detail to be correct.

Tough job.

PS: (If I find the time I will post for the other game of the night...Bucks V Warriors).
bluedragon-2
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 4
Posts: 6
Joined: Thu May 27, 2021 7:53 am

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:26 am

arbusers wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:09 am
Yesterday night we had an iconic example of the problem that I previously described with the Olympiacos V Fenerbahce game. Olympiacos left no space for breathing to Fener and that was NOT the game to trade. No chance to bet in an upset, no chance to bet in a come back.
If the opening bet was for Fener, the trader would be left with 2 choices:
a. Let the bet run till the end (disaster).
b. Lay the bet when stop loss is met (taking a small loss).

On the other hand if the opening bet was for Olympiacos, the trader would again have 2 choices:
a. Let the bet run till the end (triumph).
b. Lay the bet when profit expectation is met (taking a smaller profit).

You need to know basketball in depth to identify the correct position. You also need to know both teams in detail to be correct.

Tough job.

PS: (If I find the time I will post for the other game of the night...Bucks V Warriors).

Looking forward to this!

From a mathematical standpoint is trading points easier than winners if you have a skew from the closing line of pinnacle in the hopes it returns to the mean?
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:03 am

bluedragon-2 wrote:
Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:26 am

From a mathematical standpoint is trading points easier than winners if you have a skew from the closing line of pinnacle in the hopes it returns to the mean?


@ Bluedragon-2,
Is your exact question this - which is the more valuable strategy if skewed pre-match odds occur? Trading ins/outs against pure value bets?

First, I want to talk about my wrong preliminary assessment yesterday. It gave me the wrong impression of skewed odds. My errors here were two:
- I underestimated the news about some of Fenerbahçe's capable injured players.
- I couldn't imagine that a team managed by Itoudis was capable of such a psychological shock and total lack of resistance too early.
In summary, the consequence of the aforementioned errors was, that my calculated pre-match odds very close to Evens were wrong. That odds prediction was a general error in the short run, caused by the momentum. So, proper risk and money management could lead you to profit points in the very long run. Another must is to analyze and learn from your errors! No room for Ego here in the business. Every error is your friend in the long run, I mean the error is something like an investment in knowledge.

Now to your question.
Provided that you define the "distortion" in the pre-odds accurately, these two approaches in your question are permissible if the value is existing. But different short-term and long-term risks, different market volumes, required for your activity, various long-term and short-term gains related to the given level of risks you take, and other consequences will arise due to the nature of the straight-value market positions and the trading positions approaches. Just adapt them to your style and take advantage of them. Backtest those similar situations thousands of times and decide for yourself. Many times a given ratio of both methods is most suitable.
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Dec 17, 2022 4:03 pm

Any news from Football Australia on the Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory case from a few hours ago? How about grading this event by different agencies?
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:03 pm

Has anyone watched the Primavera Coppa Italia event, Internazionale U19 vs Hellas Verona U19, which finished minutes ago?
My question is this: did the performances of both teams correspond to the nine goals scored? Additional impressions of the quality of play on the pitch? The line over 2.75 goals was an acceptable case before the match, but I need further qualitative perceptions from observers regarding this event for the backtest later.
Thank you.
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:40 pm

A very impressive night in EuroLeague basketball.

Real's late lifesaving attack vs Barça and the overtime later, the late lack of stability for Barcelona's team and so on.
Chus' style is not as refined as Laso's one. On the other hand, the strange manner of pseudo-defense ordered by Šaras in the last quarter and in the extra time made all the visitors' players nervous. Both teams were definitely far from their best performance. The observation of today's game and the backtest may extract additional useful raw information about Real and Barça, for example, some possible behavior under pressure. Also, once appropriate filters are applied, both teams will be clearer to understand as input data in the probability model.

Much more impressive was the thunderous comeback of the PAO team versus Žalgiris in the 3rd and 4th quarters, and despite the large distribution of final points in favor of the home team, Radonjić still cannot adapt perfectly to the reality of Panathinaikos. Observing his work for several months now, it seems to me that the new coach of PAO is again and again constantly tryin' to change the team's behavior so quickly and abruptly, like Don Quixote's battle against the windmills.
Here additional backtests are more than mandatory! The new information extracted from observing the PAO vs Žalgiris Kaunas game is almost endless and I'm pretty sure that most of this data is not sustainable in the long term, but is extremely useful in a very short time horizon due to the specific game behavior practiced by the Greeks.
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jan 29, 2023 12:16 pm

What an incredible first 30 minutes for the Sassuolo team away vs AC Milan. Let's see Pioli's response (mainly the stability of the defensive department), but opening up some additional positions in some handicap markets looks very good from now on.
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Feb 11, 2023 7:06 pm

Anyone from Belgrade?
What exactly is happening now? I have no video from Belgrade. At the moment, the super-favorite Partizan as a host is trailing by 0:4... I don't find logic (injuries, red cards, etc.).
Thank you.
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Feb 12, 2023 11:39 pm

St. Valentine has made sure that all people in love are free to dedicate themselves to only each other on Valentine's Day without thinking about the Eagles vs Chiefs. How exactly? The Super Bowl LVII is goin' to start within minutes. Therefore on Valentine's Eve, all the football emotions will have subsided.

Now seriously.
The NFL really is a great league. When I've got enough time I process some pieces of NFL data and build some models. This project is very experimental and built very, very slowly from scratch due to some hypothetical hidden benefits down the road if it happens. I believe this experimental toolkit is likely much different than other existing data-driven NFL "prediction" models (of course, no one will talk openly about their system and model details and direct comparisons aren't possible).

Two rare occurrences within a month attracted my attention. I'm referring to the amazing outcomes of the clashes LA Chargers @ Jax Jaguars and Indy Colts @ Minnesota. In the very near future, those two matches will be separated into additional projects for in-depth analysis. I have some projects about calculating some basic turnaround probabilities in some major sports, but here in American football, I can't apply this the same way because of the different fundamentals.
But the winning comebacks from 0:33 to 39:36 (Vikings) and from 0:27 to 31:30 (Jaguars) are simply stunning. From the point of view of the Soccer game, they sound to me like Everton vs Wimbledon's comeback from 0:2 to 3:2 (last round, Everton's magical rescue in 1994) or even Royal Antwerp vs Levski Sofia for the UEFA Cup in 1989. At the beginning of the 91st minute, the score in Belgium was 1:3. In the 97th it was 4:3 (not to mention that additional Antwerp's goal after the 91st minute was also disallowed by the referee!).

I'd love to read your opinions on the very recent cases of the LA Chargers @ Jax Jaguars and the Indy Colts @ Minnesota Vikings. I really don't like the radio silence outside the USA for those stunning football games!
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Feb 13, 2023 2:12 am

I wonder if Butker's missed field goal in the first quarter at 7:7 will be fatal for the Kansas Chiefs in the end, given the close level of play at the moment and the odds before the game? A long set of such data would give us the likely answer converted to odds, but today…
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6212
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:53 am

I believe many Europeans avoid the NFL due to lack of knowledge of the game.
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:33 pm

Marinakis' Nott'm Forest vs Man City minutes ago, almost all data ratings and live Stats were against the host team pre-match and during the in-play mode.

Apparently, I need to learn some new lessons to strengthen short-term valuation and risk management. In the long run, everything is fine.

On the face of it, one of Nottingham's most underrated keys is new signing Keylor Navas, as a savior in some cases.

Your opinions?
junoreactor
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 7
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:51 am

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:16 pm

arb12 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:33 pm
Marinakis' Nott'm Forest vs Man City minutes ago, almost all data ratings and live Stats were against the host team pre-match and during the in-play mode.

Apparently, I need to learn some new lessons to strengthen short-term valuation and risk management. In the long run, everything is fine.

On the face of it, one of Nottingham's most underrated keys is new signing Keylor Navas, as a savior in some cases.

Your opinions?
Nothing to analyse too deeply about this match in my opinion. City had a massive ball possession, missed several great chances to lead 2-0 and I believe Nottingham scored on the only chance they got in the whole match. Luck factor.

If you play the same match ten times, City would win eight times at least.
User avatar
arb12
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 23
Posts: 1008
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:55 pm

Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:54 pm

junoreactor wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:16 pm
arb12 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:33 pm
Marinakis' Nott'm Forest vs Man City minutes ago, almost all data ratings and live Stats were against the host team pre-match and during the in-play mode.

Apparently, I need to learn some new lessons to strengthen short-term valuation and risk management. In the long run, everything is fine.

On the face of it, one of Nottingham's most underrated keys is new signing Keylor Navas, as a savior in some cases.

Your opinions?
Nothing to analyse too deeply about this match in my opinion. City had a massive ball possession, missed several great chances to lead 2-0 and I believe Nottingham scored on the only chance they got in the whole match. Luck factor.

If you play the same match ten times, City would win eight times at least.


Very true, Junoreactor. Thanks for your opinion.

8 out of 10, really. But here I mean the estimation of probabilities for short-term factors (invaluable in game mode). Most of the time this gives me big profits except in cases like today. One of my big errors today was the wrong weighting factor assigned to Navas, my big error considering I've been closely following his current form since circa 2014 (Real Madrid under Carlo Ancelotti's governance). And apparently, my misjudgment of the Navas factor was incorporated into the partial misjudgment of the current tactical battle today (in-play mode) and other errors on my part.

In short, the "luck factor" you mentioned can be decomposed into some true or false probabilities during a game, based on long-term observations. That's one of the aspects here.

Return to “Value betting talk”