Arbusers

The EFL Cup 2023 final between Man Utd and N'castle is coming up very soon.

So, in preparing my odds and business plan for that event, I've got a hard task. It's about the defensive department of the Newcastle team.
Nick Pope will miss the final due to a red card, and the second goalkeeper Dubravka isn't allowed to participate here. I just don't know how to pre-estimate the current physical and psychological condition of the third and fourth N'castle goalkeepers Loris Karius & Mark Gillespie. I've got very bright impressions of them in the past, but I've no idea about the contemporary situation. On the other hand, the often applied workaround in these cases, such as a very basic estimate that needs to be further evaluated (e.g., past averages as input for further evaluations) here can destroy all the defensive department's evaluations and therefore cause a distorted view of the interaction between departments in the team.
I'm seeking a reliable solution here.

Your ideas?

ATP, Rio de Janeiro. Does anyone know the reason why Nicolas Jarry was so much better placed in terms of pre-match odds vs Pedro Martinez? Now it's not 2018 (Jarry's year)... And yes, Jarry is playing very well right now (1st, 2nd set). My aim is to discover my error in assessment before the match.
Thank you.

Euroleague Basketball:

Although Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's team is not stable at all, why did this collapse vs Alba Berlin's team happen? My question is for those who watched that game. I'm just collecting observers' opinions here, I have neither participated in CRV-ALBA markets nor watched that match.

Valencia Basket vs Olympiacos.
Amazingly, but the huge value in terms of odds was seen here before the match. Not to mention after the 1st and especially after the second quarter in in-play mode.

In addition, I'd like to report the following:
The value of Olympiacos odds, when Vezenkov's temporary sporting form is not so optimal, has been gradually disappearing recently.
Therefore now Georgios Bartzokas' current decision in a given match and his tactical orders are much more vital, especially where in-play mode. Here I'm not referring to the hypothetical value anymore, the agencies almost destroyed it, here I'm referring to the trade decision during the Euroleague matches.


Did anyone participate in markets regarding the NBA's Kings @ Clippers thriller? I personally couldn't catch a reliable signal from the Statistics at 131:145 in the 4th quarter and spotted only an underestimation by the Favorite until the end of regular time. I think the LA Clippers team almost certainly could have held on for the win with 4 minutes and 25 seconds left.
Additionally, this rain of points wasn't predicted by my model.
Apparently fine-tuning the model is needed on my part now, but when exactly to implement it is the question. In my view, games like this come around once every decade or so. I can't remember 176:175 at all so far.

I'll be grateful for your opinions and advice here.

Well, right now there is a very strong signal emerging in the Leicester vs Arsenal match in one of the main markets regarding this event. The discrepancies are visible from space. Not applicable to the 1X2 market.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:20 pm

Euroleague Basketball:

Although Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's team is not stable at all, why did this collapse vs Alba Berlin's team happen? My question is for those who watched that game. I'm just collecting observers' opinions here, I have neither participated in CRV-ALBA markets nor watched that match.

Just watched, didn't participate so not familiar with a potential opportunities.
Collapse started at the beginning of the 4th q but you could smell it in the air from the very beginning. Strong entry in the match by the home side, +10 in the 1st q. Bottom away team, it is ideal scenario for underestimation by Balkan home teams.
Fans emotional emptied after the national cup weekend and win over Partizan. Nedovic and Vildoza combined 2/15 for 3pts, with the awful shoot selections in the last q. No timely reaction by the coach Ivanovic, Lo was onfire and thats it.

dataofsport wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:28 am

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:20 pm

Euroleague Basketball:

Although Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's team is not stable at all, why did this collapse vs Alba Berlin's team happen? My question is for those who watched that game. I'm just collecting observers' opinions here, I have neither participated in CRV-ALBA markets nor watched that match.

Just watched, didn't participate so not familiar with a potential opportunities.
Collapse started at the beginning of the 4th q but you could smell it in the air from the very beginning. Strong entry in the match by the home side, +10 in the 1st q. Bottom away team, it is ideal scenario for underestimation by Balkan home teams.
Fans emotional emptied after the national cup weekend and win over Partizan. Nedovic and Vildoza combined 2/15 for 3pts, with the awful shoot selections in the last q. No timely reaction by the coach Ivanovic, Lo was onfire and thats it.

Thanks @ Dataofsport,

And some additional questions, if I may.
I see that you are familiar with Balkan basketball, why the hell didn't PAO Athens keep Nemanja Nedović (who left for CRV Belgrade) instead of building the team's further development on him and why did they take a big risk with Dejan Radonjić as a head coach? He is not really as adaptable to the Hellenic basketball reality as Željko Obradović. In fact, these two facts have triggered a huge value against the PAO team in some cases so far. For example PAO vs Partizan in November 2022 or PAO vs Olympiakos in December 2022 (absurd pre-match odds considering the actual current state of these teams in that month).

My questions in simulation models are those:
- Likelihood of future team development if PAO 2022 coach Georgios Vovoras had been given the chance to continue in the 2022/2023 season as well as Nedović. Or has this team's ceiling been reached?
- Likelihood of some development of the team in the 2022/2023 season if Radonjić had been given the chance to work with Nedović?
- What's the likelihood of Panathinaikos' steady appearance till the end of the current season under Christos Serelis' management?


Also, I think some changes are coming to Crvena Zvezda. The likelihood of the appearance of the duo Radonjić - Nedović in CRV and the development of the hypothetical sports development of the team in the near future, especially against fast-growing Obradović's Partizan, and also in the Euroleague?

In my opinion, fundamental analysis and modeling, generating some probabilities, along with precise data processing, puts us a lap or two ahead of the market.

After the artwork of Philip Billing, there are currently many triggers regarding Arsenal vs B'mouth.

Why did Betfair disappear during many of today's big games?

Very annoying. After endless minutes, several agencies keep the A1 Ethniki match Aris Thessaloniki vs. Peristeri Athens in a state of 59:67 and the odds are frozen.
Can anyone provide actual information? Thank you.

Addendum:
This strange market state appeared circa 7 minutes before the end of the 4th quarter initially in the big soft and sharp agencies as well as the brokerages for perhaps endless minutes, the published odds about 1.1 in favor of Peristeri's team for so long time.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:55 pm

Very annoying. After endless minutes, several agencies keep the A1 Ethniki match Aris Thessaloniki vs. Peristeri Athens in a state of 59:67 and the odds are frozen.
Can anyone provide actual information? Thank you.

Addendum:
This strange market state appeared circa 7 minutes before the end of the 4th quarter initially in the big soft and sharp agencies as well as the brokerages for perhaps endless minutes, the published odds about 1.1 in favor of Peristeri's team for so long time.

The referees demanded the venue to be evacuated due to the slogans against them. The police initially refused because at the same time PAOK hooligans were returning home from Toumba stadium. In the end the police evacuated the venue and the game finished with Peristeri winning.
A typical situation in Thessaloniki, where hooligans from all teams of the city are doing their best to prove they are more stupid than what people believe.

Be careful, some quality services are more interruptable lately.
This happens from time to time, but on March 4, Betfair's dedicated maintenance report site didn't report the Exchange crash during the incident.
Today some Pinnacle systems underwent scheduled short-term maintenance and in addition, DST (maybe for server time purposes) was implemented in some countries. I was amazed that Pinny's special status page said all systems were OK and operational, etc.
Ok, but circa an hour ago (during overtime of the A1 Ethniki clash Karditsas vs Aris and also circa at the start of NBA's Brooklyn Nets@Nuggets) some Pinny systems again had an additional short-term outage today. Again "All systems OK, no incidents reported on March 12th blah blah".
Bear in mind what hypothetically will happen in the future when powerhouses like Betfair and Pinnacle degrade the quality of service without a word on their sites, which has not been seen before as far as I can remember. Store operative and funded accounts in alternate locations, should this occur, for further trading/hedging purposes.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:46 pm

Bear in mind what hypothetically will happen in the future when powerhouses like Betfair and Pinnacle degrade the quality of service without a word on their sites, which has not been seen before as far as I can remember. Store operative and funded accounts in alternate locations, should this occur, for further trading/hedging purposes.

An arber or a trader follows a very specific operating procedure and once this procedure confirmed as succesfull it is very difficult to switch to something else. These downtimes are always a pain in the @ss and whenever happening they cause a big loss of potential profits. The substitutes are not that successful compared to the starting team. Not to mention the dangers for those who wait to lock an even bigger profit minutes before kick off.

Excellent liquidity and opportunities in Miami right now, just look at the strength of Romania: Andreescu vs Raducanu 3rd set right now, odds close to Evens for a long time.
In addition, eyes are open for pre-determined conditions if they occur to other Romanians:
Bogdan (2nd set), Cirstea (Tiebreak 1st set).

EuroLeague Basketball,
Partizan Belgrade vs PAO Athens just finished a few minutes ago.

A BIG WARNING TO THE ROOKIES IN THE BUSINESS: never ever trust live-score services of any kind! I don't know exactly how many live score core suppliers there are, but the exchanges and the bookies are their big clients.

Very often the published current basketball time is wrong and occasionally the published current score is wrong.

Bearing in mind that in the fourth quarter, Željko Obradović's team (pre-match heavy Favourites) had to overcome a minimum of 8 points to reach the Overtime and 9 to win, as well as the constant change of the lead in the final minutes of this clash, the bogus three points in favor of PAO in their last attack is more than outrageous. Given these circumstances in the fourth quarter in Belgrade, this is unacceptable! Imagine how many inexperienced people in business could trust this "service" and place a very large stake in the market.

Not to mention that the wrong live score service is a supplier to at least one of the biggest agencies in the world...

Thus, the clash of Vissel Kobe vs. Yokohama was so instructive a few minutes ago, I'm thankful for the great lessons I learned today. Here I am referring to some low-ranking circumstances that matter in the end. For example, the inefficient use of Andres Iniesta by Yoshida's side. And many others, of course.