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How do you handle these kinds of situations?

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ouzoun
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon May 22, 2023 11:06 am

You are all very good theoreticians, but in European basket there are 2 words eliminating everything. Euroleague Mafia.
Real Madrid should not be at the final 4, we all know it, and even if Llull lose the final shot, something else would happen within the next 3 remaining seconds.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 30, 2023 6:36 am

I was watching the 7th game for the NBA semifinals MIAvBOS having a strategy in my mind that in the end didn't work.
The 10 points lead is a psychological barrier and early in the 2nd Quarter when Miami advanced with 13 points I started building my position against them. I was expecting a thriller game like every game at this stage deserves to be.
Late at the 3rd quarter when the difference went down to 7 points I closed a small part of my position being very positive that we are going to a thriller and I will get paid for my time and efforts. But the 4th Quarter came with the collapse of Boston and when it went up to 15 points my stop loss started ringing and I immediately closed all positions with a small loss.
In general my strategy for Euroleague and the NBA works, but it will always be interrupted by a losing game. 2 steps forward, 1 back.

Other than that, MIA is a great surprise, they prove Giannis to be correct and he was wrongfully sedated by those who know nothing about the sport and sportsmanship. There must be a serious psychological work behind MIA, and I am wondering how hard did they work for a case when it is not their day with the 3 points shoots. This will be tested in the finals, I m sure.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 30, 2023 4:46 pm

arbusers wrote:
Tue May 30, 2023 6:36 am
I was watching the 7th game for the NBA semifinals MIAvBOS having a strategy in my mind that in the end didn't work.
The 10 points lead is a psychological barrier and early in the 2nd Quarter when Miami advanced with 13 points I started building my position against them. I was expecting a thriller game like every game at this stage deserves to be.
Late at the 3rd quarter when the difference went down to 7 points I closed a small part of my position being very positive that we are going to a thriller and I will get paid for my time and efforts. But the 4th Quarter came with the collapse of Boston and when it went up to 15 points my stop loss started ringing and I immediately closed all positions with a small loss.
In general my strategy for Euroleague and the NBA works, but it will always be interrupted by a losing game. 2 steps forward, 1 back.

Other than that, MIA is a great surprise, they prove Giannis to be correct and he was wrongfully sedated by those who know nothing about the sport and sportsmanship. There must be a serious psychological work behind MIA, and I am wondering how hard did they work for a case when it is not their day with the 3 points shoots. This will be tested in the finals, I m sure.


@ Arbusers,
Thanks for sharing your opinion.
I understand your logical intention regarding the + EV accumulation when the two-digits-point lead is in effect. You obviously have your time-proven and relatively uncomplicated know-how here. Congrats!

However, I use very complicated fuzzy logic, based on several components:
- On my own-created Stats indicators;
- On what I spot at the current moment on the market (in the past I'd practiced intensively several exciting kinds of sports, including Basketball and Soccer and therefore the deep understanding of the sporting processes driving them is exceptionally useful);
- On the current Coaching staffs' tactics, on the current players' Stats and physical and psychological conditions;
- And based on more and more things and computations.
All these generated some triggers, the constant processing is very exhausting, but I love very much that activity! I like to have a very large number of variables to handle, each market case is likely to be unique no matter how many times it has been seen before. Can you imagine Juha Kankkunen or Stéphane Peterhansel using an automatic transmission, eliminating the specific cases where a manual transmission provides much more control? And yes, that kind of transmission has its price, in terms of time effort, usability, tiredness and complexity. I paid that price, but the joy is irreplaceable!
When trying some simplifications in the model, the results aren't so good at all. For example - NCAAB main tournament excluding March Madness, when the main Data are relatively clear.
That's the reason I couldn't comment like you in short my trading positions here in the Play-Offs. I should write a novel containing thousands of arguments for my positions here.

Again, congrats on your time-proven and shortened approach to trading! I have to learn a lot here.

When it comes to the value pre-match and value in-play positions in that Eastern Conference Final series, let me write some words.
According to my criteria and generated triggers, I had got three main positions here:
- One loss, pre-match positions in the Miami Heat's favor in the 6th game vs Celtics; Loss because of a 0.2 sec shot before the end.
- Two Profits: pre-match positions for Miami before match number one in Boston, and a huge cumulative position in Heat's favor before match number seven and also at the beginning of match number seven in Boston, when the Celtics scored their 9th point and when they scored their 11th point.
All of them were accepted at desired odds.
Not only the computations of the likelihood prolong tend of the Stats of 150:0 for the lack of turnarounds in the NBA Play-Offs when the initial result in the series is 3:0, but also some probabilities calculated, based on some unique approaches on Spoelstra's side, spotted so far. And remember, Pat Riley at the moment is supporting him, nevertheless his current weaknesses during the current season and the awful start in October 2022.
One of the most interesting things here in the series Heat vs Celtics is the manner, in which Spoelstra managed the first quarter and the predicted likelihood of improvement of Miami's 1Q appearance in match number seven and the influence of that in the end. WOW!

Naturally, the NBA 2023 Final vs Nikola Jokić's Denver Nuggets is goin' to be an object of other calculations and hypotheses.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 30, 2023 6:07 pm

Some comments on your last post.

1. I will avoid trading the first game of the final series of the NBA. I need an acclimatising period.
2. Every sport is unique and should have a different approach. I noticed in football after the 75th minutes a pattern of panic when placing bets. These last years with the new rules and the extra times, this went back to the 78th minute. This is the minute that open positions start closing in panic, and thus creating more value as we are nearing the final whistle.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 30, 2023 9:36 pm

arbusers wrote:
Tue May 30, 2023 6:36 am
... I was expecting a thriller game like every game at this stage deserves to be.
...
... my stop loss started ringing and I immediately closed all positions with a small loss.
...

Very good capital-protecting behavior, but let me mention another possibility that is affordable in similar cases when you perfectly know your markets and want some experiments. After serious analysis, based on your experience, you could route part of your "closing-for-a-small-loss" hedging positions to the long-term Value positions, backed by the Probability Theory. Here I mean those precise clinical positions, selected by you to not be hedged. If you group some events with +EV with the same characteristics in a very big group of those events with the (almost) same characteristics and compute their Kelly-based stakes, in the very long run, you could be (hypothetically) much more profitable provided that:
- Your experience, Logic and Stats properly estimate that every item of the examined event belongs exactly to the targeted group of events Θ that have the selected by you characteristics (θ1, θ2, θ3, ..., θn-1, θn).
- No faulty handling in the money and risk management.
- You could afford a reasonable negative result due to Black Swan by Prof. Taleb. Here the Kelly-like stakes, much lower than the Full Kelly approach, are pretty OK.
- Negative short-term result is very possible.
- Constant reassessment of all the variables. For example, the end of the spotted by you pattern or a big change of any kind. That triggers switching to pure Trading or looking for a similar value-positions market.
- The proper Value computation is the basis of everything.

And naturally, the core initial estimation of Trading positions vs Value positions, also Net Present Value computations for every approach, etc, etc...

After those aforementioned steps, some events will be selected for trading, some for Value positions or a mixed approach, but here various weighting factors and time to trade with no market noise must be clear and so on.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 30, 2023 9:39 pm

arbusers wrote:
Tue May 30, 2023 6:07 pm
Some comments on your last post.

1. I will avoid trading the first game of the final series of the NBA. I need an acclimatising period.
2. Every sport is unique and should have a different approach. I noticed in football after the 75th minutes a pattern of panic when placing bets. These last years with the new rules and the extra times, this went back to the 78th minute. This is the minute that open positions start closing in panic, and thus creating more value as we are nearing the final whistle.

Thanks for the comment.

When it comes to point 1 of your posting, I accepted the calculated by me risk in the very first match of the Heat@Celtics series, backed by my hypotheses, and much lower than the risk accepted in match number seven.
About point 2, when a such market strategy is approved, I personally target some teams across the world, managed by some Spanish and Argentinean coaches with very specific coaching philosophies, as well as some of the members of the "English Football League Championship", which perfectly suits that you've described. Not to mention on some Balkan teams across premier or subpremier divisions. All these are accelerating in terms of Asian Handicap after 80'th minute in let's say, in at least 7 or 8 from 10 cases for an interval of XXX matches before the model alerts that the Asian Handicap pattern is changing.

Thanks again for the advices!
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Jun 10, 2023 6:41 am

I find it extremely difficult to trade these final series. All games are so much tied and the teams do not allow opponents to lead a wide score difference. For example, yesterday's game had a 10+ points difference at the end of the 4th quarter, leaving me no space to manoeuvre. Anyway, I enjoy the games.
To me, DEN is the best team and they will not lose the championship. 3-1 leaves no space. DEN is copying MIL 2 years ago. This copy strikes a lot when I see Murray playing like Middleton before the injuries. But for sure, Murray is a revelation.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Jun 10, 2023 7:08 pm

The Grand Finale begins.

The full strength of both teams at the end of the 2022/2023 season is clear. Some of the most important touches that carry huge weight in my pre-analysis today:
- The current sporting form of Kevin De Bruyne. In my opinion, he is the engine of the Man City team, his performance on the pitch is much more important than others' ones. The computed probability of his neutralization.
- Some guesses on the behavior of Milanese's very tight defenders in the fierce Champions League play-offs. A much classier defensive approach than theirs in the group-stage matches. Naturally, their strength vs City's attack strength, etc.
- Again, will Inzaghi re-read the Catenaccio-style defense books from Helenio Herrera and Mourinho? Remember Barça vs Inter semis under Mourinho and Pep.
- Guardiola's interpretation of Mazzone's defense tactics if City is ahead and if the remaining time is not endless. Remember City vs United days ago and the huge risks for City in the end.

And so on.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Jun 10, 2023 7:16 pm

Addendum: some possible triggers regarding Marcelo Brozović. Let's see what happens.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Jun 10, 2023 8:00 pm

arbusers wrote:
Sat Jun 10, 2023 6:41 am
I find it extremely difficult to trade these final series. All games are so much tied and the teams do not allow opponents to lead a wide score difference. For example, yesterday's game had a 10+ points difference at the end of the 4th quarter, leaving me no space to manoeuvre. Anyway, I enjoy the games.
To me, DEN is the best team and they will not lose the championship. 3-1 leaves no space. DEN is copying MIL 2 years ago. This copy strikes a lot when I see Murray playing like Middleton before the injuries. But for sure, Murray is a revelation.
I totally agree that the Denver Nuggets team is the heavy favorite in this series, but I personally have some problems with interpreting the data in the final series, partly due to the huge classic difference between the two teams in the regular season and now in the title battle. Therefore, I cannot estimate 100 percent correctly the exact level of value potentially appearing in the odds. I aim to evaluate properly the point spread markets. If the miracle happens and the streak is extended further, more valuable data will be collected to aid in further ATS analysis. I don't see any value in ML markets.
And naturally, if the value in ATS comes up, because of the relationship between ATS odds and ML odds, ML can be attacked in some way.
In general, enjoying the games too.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Jun 12, 2023 8:50 am

Yesterday I decided to watch the Greek finals Olympiacos V Panathinaikos. No money to be made there too, as Olympiacos is 2 classes above Panathinaikos this season.

I would like to mention that I expect the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup (starting 25th of August) to be a major trading event. Surely bigger than last Eurobasket.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Jun 15, 2023 8:55 pm

What kind of nonsense is going on in the Olympic Indoor Hall right now? Nowadays, no one can rely on a full-time National Derby classic game to be televised/streamed…
After all, intelligent people want to enjoy top-notch Basketball, and modern pseudo-fans should not be in the hall at all.
Would it be possible for the national authorities to require every visitor to pass a psychological fitness test, plus a mandatory course on the History of the Olympic Truce? And if the visitors break the code written by the Oracle of Delphi (and accepted by King Ifitos of Elis, Kings Lykourgos of Sparta and Cleisthenes of Pisa), then the visitors must be barred from the sporting halls forever.
I know exactly how Margaret Thatcher fought off sporting hooligans through the gendarmerie...
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Jul 04, 2023 6:34 pm

Do you remember that notable EPL clash N'castle vs Arsenal from 0:4 to 4:4 a few years ago?
Almost the same occasion a few minutes ago in EURO Under 19, Norway from 5:0 to 5:4 vs Greece. Due to my errors and the lack of good modeling here, I didn't dare to turn attention to triggers different from AH (-0.5) and Over 2.5... Let's see what is coming in that tournament.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:55 pm

ATP Wimbledon, Andy Murray vs Stefanos Tsitsipas is coming up very soon.

If this match is played in 2017 or 2022, a clearer direction of the gaming behavior in terms of percentage probability can be introduced as a variable in the model.

Murray's ambition and experience versus his health and strength are much clearer today and pre-estimated as a percentage probability and are in opposite directions.
I personally wonder how exactly to judge the influence of the "distraction factor" (Paula Badosa) on Tsitsipas' behavior on the pitch.
The poor performance versus Nicolas Jarry (Halle), Yannick Hanfmann (Mallorca), Richard Gasquet (Stuttgart), Dušan Lajović recently...

As for Grigor Dimitrov's performance in the game, the infinite "distractions" are very easy to predict and include in the modeling of his performance and the manual compilation of projected odds from the model, but when it comes to Tsitsipas (still ATP 5 rank) this is unclear and safety margin is required.

Nevertheless, I think the initial pre-match odds offered by the agencies for the Murray-Tsitsipas clash are incorrect, but Tsitsipas' behavior on the pitch should be watched closely for further actions on the markets.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Jul 22, 2023 12:45 am

ITF Ladies' tournament in Olomouc, the Semifinals are startin' in a few hours. Lea Bošković vs Sara Čakarević.

Here betfair-value-betting-t9259/94714#p94714
in my reply to a user in this thread, I mentioned that I've done some statistical modeling on Sara Čakarević's performance in games.

A few more words after she reached the Semifinals in Olomouc.

Her last 5 months in terms of current athletic form have been beautiful for a player who currently resides in the Top 600, but her sporting potential is actually very much higher. From March 2023 until now, she is playing various elements of tennis much better than in 2021, and her current psychological state on the court is among the main factors when competing against players outside the Top 150.
The tournament in Heraklion (reaching the Final) hinted at this, but with the exception of one game there (the Semifinal), all published odds in her favor were truncated in terms of published pre-match value. There was a negative value there. Also, the agencies' published pre-match odds when she is Favorite are terrible.
The gift of agencies in terms of incorporated value pre-match started in the Santa Margherita di Pula tournament (remember the odds vs Zavatska in the Final and also the Semifinal) and is still spotted now in the Olomouc tournament.

However, in my opinion, the published odds for the Semifinal are very minimally overvalued and perhaps the last gift from the agencies in her favor and regardless of Čakarević's rather good athletic form, I wonder if that minimal overprice will cover properly the risk of her playing condition vs the good statistics of Lea Bošković on clay for 2023... The match starts in a few hours...

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