Arbusers

ATP Estoril. Pablo Cuevas vs Fernando Verdasco is going to start. Not every day we can watch two masters - veterans, clay surface specialists. Both the players, mentioned above and Tommy Robredo in their appearances produce a specific set of approaches, known for years. The most intriguing thing is the tactics chosen by them, when they play each other, alongside their fitness condition that day. Again, clay plus those three veterans may produce predefined entry/exit market points due to their predefined sporting playing habits and some fitness-specific data regarding them.

For those, digging on England and Wales' ECB Cricket County Championship, a rare opportunity appears. World superstars Cheteshwar Pujara and Mohammad Rizwan joined the Sussex team several days ago. In my view, the quality of that team is below the skills level of both the players.
Have in mind the initial loss and bad prediction for Sussex's position in the point table at the end of the season. See usual odds for them. It's possible to build an overall estimation of those two cricketers so far, and future estimations of their integration for Sussex at every match from now on. Pujara already scored 201 runs in the second innings vs Derbyshire and the loss was avoided, while Rizwan's full potential as a Batsman on the pitch is not shown so far, but he achieved four catches as a Wicketkeeper in Derbyshire's first Innings.
The next match vs Durham is starting in several hours.

Adrián Menéndez Maceiras is among those Spaniards, residing out of Top positions, but predictable when it comes not only to clay surfaces, but hard ones too. In addition, he historically plays well in Mexico (tournaments won and runner-up). Therefore his achievement in the Morelos challenger tournament so far was awaited by some probabilities in the model. The combination of age, condition, and motivation is monitored here, but Maceiras definitely is much better than the current ATP Ranking imply. Let's say circa ATP Rank 150 if the monitored conditions are favorable at that moment. The general problem for the estimations of that player is fewer played matches from 2020 onward. But in the previous round, he won vs top-seeded Escobedo, Pinnacle offered the odds above 4 prematch for Maceiras.
Currently is the third set in the Semi-final, Adrián Menéndez Maceiras is again the underdog prematch according to the agencies.

Volleyball Superliga Brasil, Final.

At the end of the regular season, both the Cruzeiro and Minas teams finished in a superior way. I was under the impression, that the Cruzeiro team takes a close look at the possibility to lose some sets in their winning matches to avoid current Champions Funvic/Natal in the Play-Offs stage if the Minas team decides the same. In the end, that option didn't apply.

I wonder why the agencies graded Cruzeiro/SADA team as a much bigger favorite pre-match. According to my observations so far, that team and the Minas/FIAT team, they've both almost equal sporting potential.
Despite the fact, that the points ratios are F/A +1.154 (Minas) vs +1.195 (Cruzeiro), and sets ratios are F/A +3.5 (Minas) vs +4.77 (Cruzeiro), the implied probability, suggested by the published odds don't correspond to the real one.
For instance, they both achieved one win each other in the regular stage (8th and 19th rounds). The result of 3:2 in the first leg in the final (after 1:2 after the 3rd set) doesn't correspond to the initial odds pre-match.

Suppose, the agencies formed the odds before the first leg and before the second leg due to some psychological conditions after the first leg, the money flow, and maybe other factors within Brasil, known for them. Especially for the match today, I'm goin' to watch the quality of the performance of the blockers and winning blocks. And Wallace's performance vs the Minas team.

The second outage for the BF Exchange in the last hours is in effect, you'd better consider hedge operations immediately at other agencies if that is appropriate for your trading plan or if there is a possible danger of unmatched positions prior to the outage harming you.

NBA Play-Offs, Bucks@Celtics is going to kick off soon.
The absurd trend of published odds in the Milwaukee team's favor, which tended at some time to touch 2.9 EU/ 190 American or something, at last reversed logically. The point spread market is in closer look also. Pre-match trade so far, plus some predefined entry points if selected conditions arise, in the much more liquidity in-play markets, is the classical approach according to the business plan for that event.

From what I saw in the first quarter, Udoka simply trapped Bucks' coaching staff, plus unstoppable Brown and almost unsuccessful Antetokounmpo, almost all his shots produced no points. Awaiting Bucks and Celtics' staff decisions and their implementations.

Apparently, the series is going to be leveled 1:1, if the visitors during the second half can't remember 37 years old Chris Paul's 14 successful shots from 14 attempts, for Suns@Pelicans a few days ago. The minimal added value in Boston's odds disappeared after the first attempt for retracement at the beginning of the second quarter of that game.

Antetokounmpo's awakening in the third quarter (successful shots to the attempts, from circa 1/10 to circa 8/17 or something, for short time) moved up Boston's odds by several hundredths, and the predicted by the bookies points spread was shortened. Later the effect disappeared. Now 10/25, four points behind Brown (10/15), but too late. Six minutes to go.

Addendum. Sorry, some stats on the fly are not precise, I make many things at the same moment. But the trends and conclusions are correct.

NBA Play-Offs. Warriors@Grizzlies at the moment.
In the second leg, the Memphis team started again like a rocket vs GSW. The first market entries are related to the risk calculated. Awaiting the Warriors' tactical response. In my view, the trailing stops are preferable here, a bit earlier, prior to the calculated hypothetical optimal conditions.

Suns@Mavericks now. If the Point Spread is lower than +1.5 (Phoenix Suns) at the first minutes of the 4th quarter, in my opinion, it's worth opening new entries, but attention if Luka Dončić accelerates afterward. His personal stats data at the moment are allowing that entry at acceptable risk.

NBA Play-Off, Heat@76ers is going to start in minutes.
After some pre-analysis, among the possible approaches here are:
Point spread market is in focus, but very quickly has to be assessed the correlation between Herro, Butler, and Adebayo. Their partnership in the first two matches of the series in Miami was basic for some observations and building the plan for entry/exit. The relative isolation for two of these three players in the 3rd leg caused a base for some spotted things in Philadelphia.
Further, the Moneyline market may be attacked by predefined basic positions, but having in mind Embiid's influence. Every new position is possible if Rivers and Spoelstra take some action and the assessment for Reward/Risk is OK.

NBA Play-Offs, Celtics@Bucks has just started. Very precious published pre-match odds, if they're seen as long-haul ones. One of the most important decision-makers for my positions here will be the battle of Udoka vs Antetokounmpo. Bucks' player is almost unstoppable lately (only he may stop himself) and in my view, Udoka may try some of the non-standard Gregg Popovich's style decisions. If that arises, then after quick further reassessment of the situation, very valuable market positions are possible.

Eastern Conference final vs Miami is moving away for Milwaukee. In my view, the retreat for them started at the lead of 24:20 in the Bucks' favor, when the success rate of three-pointers simply collapsed till the end of the second quarter, at the minimal points difference from the Celtics.
Budenholzer again ceded the initiative. Now have to be estimated the probability of risky Milwaukee attacks to eliminate the negative score vs the Boston team's stability estimation.

Another NBA Play-Off, Grizzlies@GSW is going to start.
The Memphis team is paid off a long time ago for those observers, thinking in a different way. Every Grizzlies' appearance in the Play-Offs may generate some amount due to the wrong correlation between the sporting potential and published odds, spotted many times in the regular season and in the Play-Offs so far.
Especially for the 6th match in the series, I'm curious to see Jenkins' defensive approach, and further to enter here if the risk level is optimal.