Arbusers

T20 FairBreakTournament. Falcons vs Spirit at the semifinal in Dubai at the moment. Very good performance for Danielle Wyatt so far, over 160 Strike Rate at 16th Over. Steam flow chasing positions are preferred for the Falcons team in my view so far, but taking into account the specificity of her partnership with Athapaththu so far, the probability of achieving some defendable par score before the end of the Death Overs Phase is shaped at the moment. Interestingly, there is only one wicket that has fallen so far, taken from Sophie Ecclestone. The partnership between Wyatt/Bates has to be estimated in a proper way in the next Overs till the 20st Over.

Marizanne Kapp (RSA) is entering now. The probability of a very competitive par score is raising in my view at the moment. Suppose that circa 85 percent win probability for the Falcon win is basic at the partnership Kapp/Wyatt. Now the bowling estimate for the Falcons is needed to be performed, before the Spirit team's batting effort will be in effect.

Tomorrow will be held the Bulgarian Soccer Cup final, the Eternal derby Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia. Shortening the odds in Levski's favor vs Alan Pardew's ideas have to be observed and properly estimated from the opening of the markets days ago till the Kick-Off time. On the other hand, Pardew's influence seems to be limited (the peculiarities of Bulgarian soccer do not tolerate the expertise of proven experts for a long time). Circa 24 hours before the match, it seems like the Goals Under market is most valuable, but in my view, the initial lineups after their announcement have to be very quickly estimated prior to further positions on the markets.
In short - In the next 24 hours to the Kick-Off time, predefined entry points are sought, plus the right estimations about the initial lineups.
In the third place, Alan Pardew's initial approach at the beginning of the match may shape some ideas for the market positions, but have in mind, that Bulgaria is not England in terms of coach influence's implementations on the pitch.

Minimum value, Hellenic Basketball at the moment.
If the Iraklis team starts extremely at the beginning of the third quarter vs PAO OPAP, it's worth opening some additional positions. 41:41 at the moment and some entries here are welcomed.

If PAO holds further in the match 30 percent success rate regarding three-pointers, and 70 percent regarding two-pointers, plus if the additional condition appears, I mean the Spread line +6 points or something for the Thessaloniki team if the stability of PAO is the same level at that moment, an additional entry is possible. Currently, the major lines are plus 12 points.

FA Cup, final. Seems like the Chelsea team struggles to defend and relies on sporadic attacks and having in mind mainly the second-half deciding strike. Therefore some key personal battles on the pitch have to be estimated and to be projected with some probabilities there, but personally, I'm expecting some Klopp's anticipating decisions and Tuchel's reaction, for further estimations.

Wondering about the next substitutions, aimed to properly estimations of the Chelsea and Liverpool's power on the pitch, awaiting the Extra time. Only four substitutions, made so far, are talking about the tactics. Stop the further market entries prior to the substitutions.

The conditional observed partnership assessment Vezenkov - Dorsey, if exceeds predefined by a long time estimated threshold, may break the bookies' estimations pre-match. I mean Olympiacos - Anadolu Efes at the moment - Euroleague Basketball Final Four Teams Tournament. I suppose if some personal indicators are slightly low for Vezenkov or Dorsey, maximum at the third quarter of that match you may risk some positions, provided that the Point Spread Line is below two points at the moment of the market positions.
On the other hand, if Olympiacos Basketball leads at a given moment, and one of those two players has very low indicators at the moment, additional assessment is needed before trusting any trigger.

NBA Semifinal, i.e. Eastern Conference Final.

Miami Heat@Boston Celtics just started.
From what I saw in the first two legs of that series, seems like the spirit of the unforgettable 2012 Play-Offs series - Celtics vs Heat is coming again, no matter that Dwyane Wade and LeBron James are not available here like in 2012, but Spoelstra is here again.
Some minimal facts from the large pre-analysis. These are goin' to be carefully assessed, described below in the posting.
In-depth assessment of the big difference between both the teams' development. On one hand, Spoelstra upgrades some of Pat Riley's ideas, but de facto he evolves the Miami team for 25 years so far in the Heat's Coaching Staff. He is connected to all three NBA titles won so far, once as Riley's assistant and twice as Head Coach. In short - slow and steady evolution is spotted here for 25 years under his management.
On the other hand, as far as I know, that season is the first one for Ime Udoka as a Head Coach. He is a Gregg Popovich student. Unlike the Miami Heat's stability(0.646 winning percentage in the regular season), after the awful in my opinion first half of the regular season for Boston, he built the current stable top team for less than a year(0.622 winning percentage in the regular season).
In short - you have to assess the slowly and steadily evolving top-notch MH team vs skyrocketing built for no-time BC team.

In my opinion, Spoelstra has more jockers in his hand and his tactics (successful or not) in any given match of the series will be the initial basis for the events on the pitch, performed by both the teams.
When it comes to Udoka, in my opinion in the second match in the series he used one of the 76'ers(0.622 again) weapons - to mitigate some key partnerships on the pitch for Miami.
Another danger for Spoelstra - Buttler's performance effect is impossible to replace, and hypothetical poor form or neutralized by Celtics will harm Miami for sure. Milwaukee (another 0.622) experienced this with Antetokounmpo vs Boston. Celtics are more flexible than the Heat team in that case and more players are interchangeable, if Miami neutralizes some of them.

Especially for the third match of the series, the effect of Kyle Lowry's appearance has to be included in the equation.

Naturally, the super-fast estimations on-the-fly regarding initial lineups, the current stats, and the tactics from both the coaching staffs are needed.

The stats for Tatum and Smart are so weak so far. That info may combine with the spread market if the Spread line restores under 7 points or something, depending on the risk tolerance and the monitored conditions.

Roland Garros Major ATP Tournament, Clay surface. There are thousands of factors to be estimated here, but I have to mention the fitness comparisons between Nadal, Djokovic, Tsitsipas, and Alcaraz.
Let's say, Nadal's clay performance is out of doubt, but the minimal influence of the Age factor, a much bigger influence of the Health/Injury factor during the competitions, and a motivation factor result in producing an initial basic probability at the start of every game and further has to be managed with some risks and other factors when Nadal move in in-play mode.

Alcaraz has skyrocketed so far in 2022, but the player has to estimate properly the tension regarding expectations to him, plus the Rome Clay Tournament surprizing cancel. On the other hand, three clay surface tournaments won so far in 2022, plus Miami (hard surface). Here arose some points for initial basic entries regarding his matches in France.

Tsitsipas, two finals (Monte Carlo won) and one semi-final on clay surface in 2022. The worrying facts are - meltdown when simply having to close the match against Dimitrov in Rome (Tie-Break for the match saved him), the defeats vs Safiulin, residing outside of the ATP Top 100 (Marseille), and vs Brooksby (Indian Wells). Properly estimating here by your side is important.

For me, Djokovic's pre-assessment is a big challenge. Let me explain. Did you remember Nicolas Anelka's contribution to the Real Madrid Soccer Team at the end of the 99/00 season? All the season he seemed like he is resting and not fit, plus the scandals, but when the crucial matches came into effect in Spring 2000, he was among the best. One of the reasons was his available power at the end of the season, due to lack of tiredness, unlike the other major players on the pitch.
A similar assessment may consider when Djokovich appears. He was banned from the Australian Open and US tournament further, resulting in a lack of matches, lack of practice needed for him, and his form went down. Early defeats vs Vesely and Davidovich Fokina. In Belgrade ATP (clay surface) versus Djere, Kecmanović, Khachanov, if you had seen carefully, and later in the final match, his form was awful. The odds were out of order, but that was the agencies' problem, not the sharp players' one, which benefitted (trading and classical betting depending on the situation - match market, set market, game market, etc). Later in Rome, he won easy, no set lost.
Later carefully the player, before building her/his entry/exit points regarding Djokovic, can manage his project- fitness and tiredness for Djokovic and not only major odds, but set, game, point, etc markets may be managed properly if the trigger appears. In the long run, in the further 2022 tournaments, similar management may apply if appropriate, if the lack of tiredness vs health fit ratio is good.

Medvedev's class is out of doubt, but in 2022 he appears only once on the clay surface and lost vs 75th seeded Gasquet (Geneva). Personally will make further assessments about him in Paris, in play, prior to making some entry points.

Above I mentioned only some aspects of the fitness factor, nothin' more. In fact, there are thousands of factors, not to mention the technical ones. Remember Adrián Menéndez Maceiras's performance in Mexico (both in the individual and in the doubles tournaments).

New pretenders and "surprises" in Paris:
Here could be a written a very, very long technical and fundamental material, a Ph.D.Thesis-like one. In short, trying some things, but there is no guarantee at all.

Just now the smart money is welcomed at EPL (at the half-time: Citi - Villa 0:1, Liverpool - Wolves 1:1 in the clash for 1st place, not to mention battles for 17th place to avoid relegation, and maybe for the fourth place Spurs vs Gunners). But the dynamics of the odds and some hard to estimate for no time probabilities require a precaution: your main capital must NOT be put here under fire. Let's follow a basic rule in finance: only a reasonable percentage of capital should be invested in short-term positions. Don't jeopardize a big part of a long-time built capital for short-time purpose in the last EPL round, if the risk assessment is not what it seems. Sharks are here and awaiting you.

If you watch now Gilles Simon and Lorenzo Musetti, almost simultaneously they're tuning in a similar manner the graphical lines vs Carreno Busta and Tsitsipas respectively. Several bottoms happened there. A first partial hedge is recommended now, and some new entries/exits later in the 5th set in both the matches, at a predefined by you level of Reward/Risk ratio.

NBA, 7th leg, the decider for the Eastern Conference title is going to start soon.
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, same long series as 2012. Brilliant basketball and want never end that series, but the rules giving advantage to the winner of 7th match.
Some basic points to the business plan to enter that match (The Moneyline market mainly) are built according to the pre-analysis. In short: Regarding Technical analysis and Stats processing so far, are computed the probabilities for a major attack in terms of points spread of every team in quarters 1 to 3, and another probability computed for the same in the 4th part if some predefined conditions happen. The game behavior of both the teams at that time is the next component to further assessment, and that way immediately odds compiling is needed, based on the written above, and that results in every further market position added/closed.
Additionally, the major published Points Spread line (+3 points for Miami) may be attacked at the appropriate time. In my opinion, sooner in the match than later is much more probable, the game conditions to match the predefined criteria by the model, for that market position.
Again, like previous clashes of that series, Spoelstra's tactics and their successful or not successful implementations by Miami Heat's players will be the leading components in some assessments and compiling on the fly, while Udoka and Celtics' ones will be assigned a little less weight, according to my view. There are some possible pitfalls here, for instance, the very fast initial assessment regarding starting lineups may not be so accurate, provided that the early news insists on more missing key players for the Miami team, and additionally the general assessment regarding replacement players and the major indicators for the Miami team (and Celtics respectively, if some injured players are replaced in starting lineup).

Enjoyed the Roland Garros match Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng. Very impressive sporting behavior from the Chinese player. I mean mainly her mental characteristics, after the medical time-out, no matter that her opponent is ranked as the WTA number one. Additionally, her sporting behavior is very good.
In my view, her sporting and mental characteristics have some similarities to Leylah Fernandez's ones. That might be useful to construct some points in future matches. Unlike Fernandez, I spotted her mainly in many ITF tournaments and as far as I remember, her first win in ATP was in Palermo last year, residing somewhere in the Top 150 or Top 200 at this time. She was so low ranked due to her preferences for the ITFs mainly.
The next several Zheng's appearances will show us clearly if reaching the 4th round at Roland Garros was a temporary success or a steady trend, but the mentality today and many sporting elements mastered in her technical arsenal at that young age (in Palermo ATP last year I didn't spot that) is a good base for the future progress. Therefore the estimations and plans for market entries/exits in her future appearances are similar to some known sporting behaviors on the pitch, observed so far during the years. Here I don't mean the technical Stats in her appearances. They have to be estimated additionally for more precise market entries.