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How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 31, 2022 4:57 pm

The Hellenic Basketball Play-Offs, KAE Larisa vs PAO OPAP, the second leg of the Semifinal series is playing now. Pre-analysis pinpointed a possible trigger consisting of several conditions, one of them is current spread below 10 points, second condition - Nemanja Nedović out of the pitch when you place the opening position, third - the game is neither in the first nor in the last quarter of the game. And several other less important, but required conditions exist according to my pre-analysis. If that moment happens, in my view, the probability of several very successful open/exit positions against the current spread is above 60 percent.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 31, 2022 5:17 pm

Apparently, my pre-analysis underestimated Larisa's initial skyrocketing. A valuable lesson to learn. :)
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue May 31, 2022 6:01 pm

The quality of Larisa's defense vs the PAO slow version attack is a possible pair of pre-assessment situations during the final quarter. The second most probably to happen today pair of situations, which must be estimated before some market positions, is the quality of Larisa's defense vs very explosive PAO, but the current lineups on the pitch and their Stats during the final quarter are required to be estimated for no time.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:40 am

Spanish Basketball. The second match from the Semifinal series FCB vs CJB is playing now. At Nou Palau Blaugrana, the Joventut Badalona team won the first two quarters by one point every quarter. That info, plus the current major Stats provides huge triggers in Moneyline and Spread markets. Nikola Mirotić has much more effective 2 pointers, than three-pointers at the moment.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:37 pm

Series decider, ABA Adriatic League, Final. At the half-time Crvena Zvezda vs Partizan Belgrade.
Due to Željko Obradović's decision to accent the defense quality during the second quarter, Partizan missed some possibilities in the attack. Nevertheless, the value for Partizan in that half is much more due to neutralizing some errors in defense, spotted in the first two games of that series.
At the end of the second quarter, the initially priced pre-match spread line between 5 and 5.5 points, has moved to 3.5 points in Crvena Zvezda's favor. Additionally, the Moneyline odds are much closer to pre-match odds than the real odds in my view. These current values simply not reflected the game in the first two quarters and some wrong-priced markets are closed and paid. Later in the half-time interval seems like some agencies tend to publish the real odds, but no value there. For instance, the Spread line of 1.5 points was offered for a moment and later disappeared.
If further additional market entries are considered, then see closely further decisions of Obradović and Dejan Radonjić. Second, hypothetically Punter and Lessort's quality appearances for Partizan and Luka Mitrović's acceleration for Crvena Zvezda have to be estimated properly. And see for every later moment if the quality analysis regarding Partizan's defense shows some changes.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Jun 07, 2022 4:24 pm

Youngster Dalibor Svrčina minutes ago beat Andrej Martin in Bratislava Challenger. My question is what is the deep logic behind published pre-match odds against Martin, a clay surface specialist known for years?
Rationale: I know for the previous win in Zadar Challenger recently (the same odds), but the experience difference and lack of some info for injuries and lack of other specific info from Slovakia today puzzled me about these odds. Thanks in advance.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:36 pm

The second "youth" for Gilles Simon from May 2022 onwards (especially the French Open) is combined with some interesting Stats for him so far. When 37 yo Simon has a perfect physical condition on the same match day, you may watch him on the pitch, to reassess the quality analysis and combine it with the Technical one. Many moments during his matches have entry/exit points at a very acceptable Reward/Risk Ratio. Your opinions? :)
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:24 am

Simon, Mordric, Ronaldo, they all fall to the same category. When the crash comes, it is abrupt.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:24 pm

After Adriatic League's 5 matches series Final, Crvena Zvezda Belgrade and Partizan Belgrade are in the domestic SuperLeague Semifinals, versus Mega Basket and FMP respectively. Starting from today, my approach is to accumulate some additional Stats data and their Tactics approaches. Then I'm goin' to try to reassess them properly if somehow new hidden approaches appear from the players and both the coaches Dejan Radonjić and Željko Obradović, aiming to be prepared myself and to compose a quality business plan for the Superleague Final Series. Hypothetically, the data and the Stats regardin' FMP and Mega also may be useful at some stage in the Semifinal series, and why not in the Final series (very low probability).
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:50 pm

The FMP Beograd team qualified for the Final without any played game of the Series. Just announced. Anyone from Belgrade to enlighten the case?
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:37 pm

The Hellenic Championship Final, Olympiacos vs PAO series starts today.

I tried to reassess Panathinaikos and Olympiacos's performances and Stats. Euroleague Basketball and the domestic championships were quite long tournaments and both the teams' strengths and weaknesses were enlightened. In my approach, some selected by me major data and Stats were saved and accumulated, while another group of data and Stats by my discretion were weighted in a selected time intervals - more recent ones, more weight for these. Third group of data and stats are no longer valid in my view.

When it comes to value betting for the match today, my system triggered several probable scenarios with no clear advantage for any. That's why I'm goin' to restrain that way of business today and my plan will require trading in-play mostly. The reason for that is that mainly the Larisa team showed me some weaknesses in my system when the Semifinal series vs PAO was in effect. Several times back-tested the data (I mean the Larisa's wins 74:62 and 84:77 vs PAO), and additionally watched them again, and thankfully both the teams showed me my errors in the quality estimation of some aspects of the gameplay. Additionally, when I have much more time, I'll start checkings if these kinds of errors affected my past results when it comes to the Basketball positions.

The predefined points for market entries and exits and the desired risk ratios are loaded for the Piraeus clash today. While the Olympiacos team - coach and players, is relatively clear, there are some questionable factors for me today, before opening a position. For instance, Nemanja Nedović - a very fast assessment, the current sporting form and his behavior on the pitch, and the desired tactics of the PAO coaching staff and their implementation on the pitch, are needed.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Jun 11, 2022 7:03 pm

Is that match a real one or a masquerade? Slow pace from both the teams, and the PAO team is practically absent - 14 percent two-pointers and ZERO three-pointers, but the passion of the game in the green team is absent today? And Olympiacos's players seem like they are early informed for the lack of resistance? And that disgusting ad of Novibet every several seconds...
No market positions, if the clash is not real. The above is for the first quarter of the game.

Luckily, the second quarter seems like it is played by both the teams and better pace, but... these are not PAO and OLY definitely.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:14 pm

An excellent finish score for the Larisa team away vs KAE Promitheas Patras in the opener match in the series. The second half was very pleasant. I think Larisa in their current peak of the sporting form (two wins vs PAO in the Semifinal series and good tactics today vs Promitheas) is equivalent to stronger AEK and Kolossos Rodou teams.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jun 12, 2022 7:51 pm

I am wondering if you could provide analysis on demand, let's say a couple of days before the actual event, and then see what your performance would be?
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:39 pm

Actually, several years ago in some moments, I considered some things, like tipster on some platforms and so on, but realized that's not for me. I'm a very mediocre "tipster" for a single, concrete event. For instance, in terms of the so-called prediction mindset, two of the matches in the Semifinal series Larisa vs Panathinaikos would be a big failure for me. Why? I'm imperfect and the "I know that I know nothing" principle is helping my mind to spot new things every day. If I was selling tips, my hypothetical users would be losers at those events.

Instead of the above, my goal is via the Probability Theory (various technical data, selected by me), via mostly individual pure sporting observations, via risk management and proper money management, of course, to be ahead when it comes to a group of events, in the long run. Here I'm pretty well and tend to master 7-8 or more sports, year by year. That's why I don't need to sell anything, nor to publish my exact market positions and cause harm to myself.

Nevertheless, from time to time, in some topics, I drop some things for future matches, but without my exact market positions, to prevent harm to my positions in the agencies. For instance, I love cricket, and the same day or a few minutes before some match, or during the same match in-play, I write some thoughts on the topic. If someone read my IPL topic ("IPL 2022"), may spot some pre-analysis and on-the-fly analysis when the game is in the in-play mode, which is very useful for compiling own odds/probabilities and for building a plan to enter or exit the market.
Another example. Some days ago, during the first T20 cricket match of the series India vs South Africa, in my other Cricket topic ("For the love of the game"), somewhere between the innings break and the beginning of South Africa's batting part of the game, I published the exact strategy of my next market entries. The events I was waiting for, based on my pre-analysis, based on the current tactics and the current form of David Miller and other players from both the teams, took place almost that way.
Naturally, I couldn't afford to publish my risk and money management, and the exact market positions in the agencies. Neither to reveal my long-time building algorithm. Neither to publish clear betting advice - if I was wrong? That happens. Only my money has to be lost in that case, not other people's money.
As far as I remember, that market was circa 70 - 80 million on the exchanges.

I'm happy to share ideas with others in that clever forum. :)

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