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How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jun 12, 2022 9:52 pm

I forgot to write in the previous post that the starting lineups and the tactics of the coaches are extremely important for my model.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Jul 10, 2022 12:46 pm

ATP Wimbledon, The Final is going to start soon.
In order to provide good reward/risk ratios, the pre-analysis surprisingly return several scenarios. Surprisingly, one of the safest investments here according to the initial predefined conditions, the model suggests an initial pre-match entry point in the spread/set market, combined with further trading entries, when several predefined conditions are covered. To my surprise, if most of these are covered (let's say the probability is very high), the first exit points are suggested before the second set ends.
For the variables, inputted in the model above, very high weights are assigned to several factors. Among them are the following:
- the psychological resilience and provocative behavior of one of the opponents;
- tactical mastering in the runtime, plus current physical condition, assigned to the other opponent;
- plenty of various other variables, and most of them are much lower weighted for simplicity reasons in the computative model.
If the predefined weights are slightly different, the pre-analysis return similar exits, but the predefined points for later entries/exits differ. That is to secure the same acceptable R/R Ratio.
If the desired R/R parameter is different, several additional scenarios are possible and the computational task is more complex. In my view, in these various cases, if the Risk parameter doesn't exceed the predefined point, the investor may switch to a kind of cold trading mode.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:17 pm

Superliga Romania. Due to the fact, that the accumulated data in the new season so far isn't enough to build very stable conclusions, some teams have been carefully selected through some observations. For example, there are teams, that at the current stage perform on-pitch behavior, convenient for a given market. For example, probabilistic pre-match handicap scenarios and relevant in-play markets can be constructed for the FCSB and Hermannstadt teams.

The FCSB team's behavior is unstable for their class. After starting line-up annunciation, a quick assumption is needed as to what the possibilities are today when it comes to the defensive dept, mainly in the left and central-left defensive zones.
Only in the last match vs the Mioveni team, the mentioned problem case was relatively mitigated. I'm so sorry for the FCSB team and for the soccer lovers, that top-notch defenders like Miodrag Belodedici aren't available nowadays.
Among the factors, that needed to be estimated is also the lack of the efficiency of the big percent possession for FCSB. I often spot passive behavior from the FCSB players, when the team has a majority of players in the current zone vs the opponent's players. And so forth. The reading and the implementation of the current tactical approach and the mentioned above problems, have to be used for the fast building of some probability scenarios and to act accordingly. For the very next interval of games, I await the first win for FCSB in the domestic Championship.

For the composition of the strategy regarding Hermannstadt's game behavior, I mainly rely on a few factors, selected by me. In the current period, a very big weight is assigned to the behavior and the degree of synchronization of the defenders under the leadership of the goalkeeper Plamen Iliev. Among the pitfalls here are the situations, when Iliev doesn't react at all to very quick shots against H'stadt. Luckily for him, almost no serious damage was done this way. When estimating possible Handicap line pre-match, you have to count that.
When the estimation of Hermannstadt's defensive quality and sync here is achieved, the next assigned weighting factor for me is the estimation of the quality performance of the middle-range and long-range passes in some quicker attacks for H'stadt. And so on.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:07 pm

What goes on behind the scenes of the Man United team? Their performance on the field is well below their potential. This is among those rare cases where the technical part of the analysis is on hold but can be restarted at any moment if the top players and coaching staff start to perform well, the fundamental part of the analysis contains some unknown components and you should also guess and decode these components and their overall influence. Risk management varies from a few manageable states to many "uncontrollable" conditions. The processing of the current data without guessing the background hidden info about Man Utd in every given time interval may cause a sudden acceleration or break part of the quality of the analysis.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:35 pm

I think we now hear the noise before Ronaldo's departure.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Aug 15, 2022 7:35 am

arbusers wrote:
Sat Aug 13, 2022 6:35 pm
I think we now hear the noise before Ronaldo's departure.

There should be negotiations between teems and managers for his departure. NDA agreements are protecting the value of the asset. Prepare for his next jump, the name of the game.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:04 pm

Today's action by Elon Musk. A very complicated case. On the one hand, this could lead to an additional psychological burden and strain on the Man United squad/management. This must somehow be properly evaluated and used in future probability calculations /odds, if appropriate. On the other hand, was this action a test of how the "MANU.N" value will react? I mean today's peak. Or early preparation for something else?
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:48 pm

So,
Can we think that Jesse Marsch's influence on Leeds is very stable, or are future peaks possible? Three rounds so far and there's no big Leeds data sample under his governance. The Major League Soccer and the both European RedBulls are other stories, but his modus operandi has been very expressional so far, so very quick extrapolations are needed to determine Leeds' true value at the very early start of Marsch's tenure.
I have in mind in-depth quality analysis and transforming that into some probabilities in the next rounds, bearing in mind the risks of analyzing Leeds' interim performance before the accumulated data from the field has clarified the real picture. Among the inputs here (mostly non-quantitative) are Marsch's work style so far in his career and Leeds' temporary quality in every detail. The risks here are mainly related to misjudging the transformations from Bielsa's manner to Marsch's vision.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Mon Sep 12, 2022 6:02 pm

Romanian Superliga, the FCSB vs Voluntari clash is goin' to start.
So, after a brilliant first half away to West Ham, I think it's time for the FCSB team to attack for their second Superliga win in their eighth attempt so far. Despite good performances in the European tournaments so far, their first win in the Romanian Superliga was a nightmare at the home ground against bottom fish Chindia Târgoviște, from 0:2 to 3:2 at the end.
From my point of view, the left flank of the attacking department will do their best for the winning attempt, but I'm so puzzled by the childish behavior of the defenders. After the clash against the Mioveni away, it finally seems that the left defensive zone is now relatively in order, but the glitchy defensive decisions moved mainly to the right zone in very delicate moments of the games afterward.
FCSB's wasted high possession percentage in the last seven games and low goal-scoring efficiency are threats to the title-contending team and the players opening positions with them in the markets as well.
However, I think there are some good signals for their success tonight, but my advice is to use earlier than usual predefined hedging positions if the Betano-sponsored team shows the usual dangerous characteristics of wasting almost everything.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Nov 22, 2022 12:32 pm

The 2022 FIFA World Cup.

From what I've seen so far, I have urgently taken the following actions:
- Improving risk management (not only in relation to the rumors of the Qatar/Ecuador case);
- Actions to improve the odds calculation model, here I mean regularly adding 10 - 15 minutes of extra time after the 45th minute and after the 90th minute.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Nov 22, 2022 3:04 pm

WC 2022. Denmark vs Tunisia.

I witnessed a beautiful turnaround at Soccer Corner Market: from 6:3 for Denmark to 6:8 with only 25 percent possession for Tunisia at that time! At this point, I mean the initial minutes of the second half.
Pinny rated these two moments with a coefficient of approximately 10 and 1.7 for Tunisia respectively.
"The owls are not what they seem" ( the "Twin Peaks" film tagline).
As user Ex-hft says very often, "there's a lot of food for thought here".

Apparently, some probabilistic models are not what they seem…
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:05 am

Option for additional evaluation to be handled in your model. Additional motivational factors for some members of the Swiss team and staff, especially against Serbia. These factors are not related to sports at all.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:00 pm

Are there live streams from the spidercams in sports? I think it is an extremely useful tool for decomposing coaching tactics and their implementation, the different angles of seeing in depth what is happening on the pitch, and analyzing many useful things.
Thanks.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:52 am

EuroLeague Basketball, Olympiacos vs Fenerbahçe soon.

Apparently, due to the blockbuster coach like Itoudis, the Fenerbahçe team is on the jazz again. I haven't seen that team play that well since Obradović left, but Itoudis is building something this season.

I think the published pre-match odds are probably skewed, but the real opportunity may be in in-game trading. I'm pretty sure Itoudis will try some tactical trick to lure Bartzokas, but I don't know when. So, depending on the reaction of the Olympiakos' coach and the current time of the match, many market situations can arise.
On the other hand, if Bartzokas orders the Olympiakos team to put much more pressure on the opposition team proactively, other good market points will emerge regardless of Itoudis' initial moves. At that point, the trading must be quick.

And so on and so forth, many predefined triggers are probable here, based on pre-analysis. Let's see what happens.
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?

Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:01 am

Very interesting post but I have the question of the million.

I know it works very well to trade in Euroleague and NBA when games and opponents are tight, but which team would you be long first? So the question for me is to identify which team will get into the court with high testosterone and clear mind to get the initial points difference from the opponent. This I can't answer my self. And I m sure most basketball traders have the same question. What is left to be done, is simply guess who will take the initial points difference and some times this guess is wrong and makes you close the trade with a stop loss.

As for Itoudis, he is the #1 coach in Europe and beyond, second to none. One of the things I admire in Itoudis is the way he handles 3 pointers with his players. It seems to me that he is passing a certain psychology to his players and makes them being very good at 3 pointers even if their previous record is bad. There must be a job secret there, we will know in some years from now. Also, have a look at Nick Calathes. He is more stable than ever, a player you can trust more under Itoudis, much more the other coach star called Saras.

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