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How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

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How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:20 am

It's no coincidence that Asian Handicap betting comprises the term "handicap." This well-known form of spread betting is used when the abilities of one of the competing teams are weaker than those of the other. Consequently, the probability that this team will win the meeting is lower. Asian Handicap betting acts as a leveler, a counterbalancing solution. Bookmakers add points to an account of a weaker team to even things out. It means that a stronger team must win by more goals for a bet on them to win. It also implies that it's more probable to win betting on an underdog.

This type of betting eliminates the chance of a draw in a match, reducing the number of outcomes from three (as in 1X2 wagering) to two. Bettors have a near 50% winning probability for either bet. There are three types of Asian Handicap: Half goal (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, etc), Whole goal (1.0, 2.0, etc), and Quarter goal (0.25, 0.75, etc). When the Asian Handicap result is a draw (which can happen in Whole Goal Handicap), your bet is returned no matter which team you backed. Handicap betting options are called "lines." Click on arbusers Asian Handicap calculator to determine each line's outcomes and potential profits for each line. Asian Handicaps are used mainly, but not only in football. Basketball and netball also witness large points totals, catering to Asian total betting markets. Cricket and rugby have the potential for draws, although, since they are rarer, the Asian Handicap form of betting isn't required in these sports. This clever system originated in the 1990s in Indonesia, and that is where the "Asian" in its name comes from.

Now that we know what Asian Handicap betting is, let's get to the winning part!

1. Discover where to bet safely
For starters, prior to betting with the Asian Handicap, ensure to find the right website to bet with. Talk out your options on arbusers, forum the largest community of pro bettors world wide. That already makes you a winner, considering many who fail painfully in the very first step of this enterprise. Have no doubt, the best Asian Handicap options will be given by Asian bookmakers, or asia style bookmakers. Alternatively, a betting platform like Mollybet would do the job for you.

2. Get familiar with the Asian Handicap
To succeed in the Asian Handicap, get familiar with the odds and lines and how they change. The leading betting sites build the Asian Handicap lines with a similar approach—by calculating the expected goals for each team and setting the starting lines and odds on this foundation. Once bettors start putting money on Asian Handicaps, the bookmakers move the odds following the volume. If many bettors are backing the favorite, this might cause a better price for the underdog, potentially even changing the main line.

3. Follow the stats (or the alert services)
You could do a bookmaker's job to calculate the real odds but most probably this will require tons of effort and time. Alternatively, you could use an alert service like BetBurger to see when a bookmaker makes a mistake and then exploit it.

4. Be the first to hear about the team news
This will not work. Simply because most bettors are in the end of the news chain. Unless you are an insider having a direct and credible information from a team, following news will not help you. This is what most bettors do, and that is why they are long term losers.

5. Opposing styles break-down
Since you are here to win, you want to analyze all that may matter. The opposing styles is one of these factors—which, by the way, may easily get unnoticed by less experienced bettors.
The styles of opposing teams can significantly affect the outcome of matches, and it's true for most sports. Some teams consider opponents with a particular style to appear tough to defeat. However, they can simultaneously do exceptionally well against teams that embody another style. Asian Handicap is based on building a picture of how a game will unfold. Study the styles of each team to approach these dynamics smartly.

6. It's all about psychology
While your psychological condition will affect your betting, we will look into this matter on another occasion. In this paragraph, we want to underline how much impact the team's motivation and mental state have on the match. It's not an objective or easily trackable characteristic of the team, but it's worth looking at closer, especially if the stakes are high.
The mental part of the game is essential. Teams with confidence or on a winning streak perform better. If there is pressure and the overall atmosphere is off, it will negatively influence performance. A lot of effort is put into effectively working out the mental state of teams and individual players. Have it in mind when betting with the Asian Handicap in football. This invisible factor has a significant impact on your very visible wins.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:21 pm

What's the point of this thread?

Surely people on a betting forum would already know that you need an account on a betting website in order to place bets?

If you begin way #4 with "This will not work.", this causes me to question the thread title. Shouldn't it be "Five Effective Ways and a Useless One" then?

Since I don't just want to be rude, I thought I should share at least some useful information of my own, though I presume that everyone would know this anyway:

Asian handicap is a way of handicap betting that has only two outcomes. We call it "Asian" to distinguish it from European handicap, which has a draw outcome too. (In AH, this either is not possible, if the line is ±x.5, or replaced with a push like DNB if the line is ±x.0, or replaced with a half-push if the line is ±x.25 or ±x.75)

Asian handicap odds are set by a computer from parameters decided by a human trader. The easiest way is to have an expected value for each team and treat the two score counts as Poisson distributed - this gives you a Skellam distribution. There's also more complex ways to favor in the higher probability of a tie, though frankly a Skellam distribution should suffice.

Usually, the vig is slightly better on the main line, while equal on all the non-main lines. (However, the vig tends to be worse on higher odds for risk management reasons.)

To calculate middle lines (.25 and .75), you can use the same formula as for O/U lines. +0.75 means (roughly) "half on +0.5, half on +1.0", meaning that it's a full win if they draw and a half-loss if they lose by one goal. Since the "half push" outcome is a loss, +0.75 is exactly equivalent to putting half the stake on +0.5 and half on +1.0. Therefore, fair odds for +0.75 and -0.25 are exactly the average of the odds for, respectively, +0.5 and +1.0, and -0.5 and ±0.0.

However, the opposite is true for -0.75 and +0.25. There, the half push outcome is a win (-0.75 = loss at draw, half-win at odds for the whole bet at win by 1 goal, win by win at 2+ goals). So to analyze that, you either have to consider it as setting the potential profit amounts equal, or by just inverting it - taking the odds you have for e.g. -1.0 and -0.5, converting into odds for +1.0 and +0.5, taking the average as +0.75, and then converting back into -0.75.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Sat Jul 23, 2022 6:20 pm

Thank you @Mirage
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:51 pm

Now that we understand what is Asian handicap, all that is left is to understand how to win 😂

One thing that I’m curious about: does anybody have an example of “understanding opposing styles”? I understand how to model whether a team is strong or weak, does it tend to score a lot or concede a lot. But how would you use the fact that one team likes to move the ball around a lot, vs another team which relies on strong defense and few, strong attacks, for example?
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:19 pm

Wait a sec. One most valueable paragraph here and denied? Basically you say that being the first ones about team news is pointless? This is the most riddiculous thing I heard about ages, It doesnt matter what you bet, match odds, overs/unders, corners, favs/dogs, chicken fights or dogs in cages, doesnt matter at all. It all matters how fast you can get team's info. I make steady money in exchanges since ages, mostly what I see are lumps waiting to get matched AFTER me who can get access to the info in the first place. Stats? Man, dont make me laugh. Its all about having access to team's info, nothing else. Mostly you got 3-5 mins before odds crash (considering extreme low limits pre-ko these days), so if you dont have access to firs info, you are done.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:30 pm

First of all, I want to apologize to the original poster of the current topic and to the site admin for flooding the topic. In my view, the problem, hinted by the user Ex-hft is very serious from the scientific point of view.
ex-hft wrote:
Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:51 pm
One thing that I’m curious about: does anybody have an example of “understanding opposing styles”? I understand how to model whether a team is strong or weak, does it tend to score a lot or concede a lot. But how would you use the fact that one team likes to move the ball around a lot, vs another team which relies on strong defense and few, strong attacks, for example?
@Ex-hft,
Let me hint you some of my ideas, used in the practice.
It's very important what exactly is the observed case.
Do you remember Greece's appearance under Otto Rehhagel's management in the UEFA Euro 2004? Backtest it. That was a Masterpiece of its purest kind.
Do you remember Bulgaria's appearance in the Mondial 1994? Especially the clashes against the Germany and Argentina teams? Backtest it. Have to stress, that Bulgaria's appearance in the FIFA World Cup 1994 and the tactics, chosen by the Bulgarian coaching staff (Dimitar Penev and Krasimir Borisov) in every Bulgarian match, in every Bulgaria's appearance at the Mondial USA'94 was very strange, and 28 years later I'm so curious what rationale was chosen by them, and why for every matchday's given current tactical approach was chosen by them in every FIFA Mondial'94 appearance of the Bulgaria team. I can't decompose their on-pitch tactics and their mind... Even master tactician like Johan Cruyff wasn't able to guess their tactics in his analysis... These classic cases, written above, were when it comes to the predefined by the agencies so-called Underdogs. Were they real Underdogs?
Now I want to hint to you about Italy's appearance under Dino Zoff's management. The Italy team is usually considered the Favorites pre-match. Very often they were under 40 percent ball possession and two or three shots on the target for all the match-time. But as far as I remember, in the final match of the UEFA EURO 2000 vs France, their possession was something like 60 or 65 percent. Backtest that.
When it comes to contemporary cases, please observe the cases of several clashes very recently:
- The second leg of the PAOK Thessaloniki vs Levski Sofia clash;
- The second leg of the Olympiacos Piraeus vs Maccabi Haifa clash;
Today's matches in Korean K1 League, just finished:
- The first half of the clash Ulsan Hyundai vs Gangwon;
- Pohang Steelers vs Seoul.
Hopefully, that info will be valuable for your future work.
And last, but not least, see some Argentinean cases, for instance, the Atlético Tucumán team's behavior when they're visitors last rounds. Especially vs Club Atlético Independiente and River Plate away. You'll notice some very interesting things.
Also, decompose the Rosario Central team's behavior under Carlos Tevez's governance. There are some stunning ideas, especially later in the given match runtime.
Wish you a lot of profits. :)
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:17 am

A lot of food for thought here, thank you.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:18 pm

ex-hft wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:17 am
A lot of food for thought here, thank you.
@ Ex-hft,
I may hint to you a little bit further about some of my approaches, based on my observations if you are confused about the ideas, hinted in these soccer matches, described above in my previous post. However, try to research them for yourself on a very deep level, every additional viewpoint contributes a lot to the forum.

- Greece at UEFA EURO 2004: Among the basics of the team was the transformation of Rehhagel's approach. Research his work at the helm of the Werder Bremen and Kaiserslautern teams. Later make a comparison between Werder/K'lautern and Greece before Rehhagel's appearance in the Greek team's governance. Why was the management style adopted to the new conditions and where exactly were the changes? How exactly Rehhagel has managed the Greek team's evolution and the basics of their progress during that tournament? Were the pre-match odds skewed at some stages? Were they underdogs?
- Bulgaria at FIFA Mondial 1994: That's just crazy, but almost every night in the USA there were wild parties in the Bulgarian camp, while Berti Vogts, Alfio Basile, and other coaches of Bulgaria's opponents did hard training. Bulgarians' performance was very pretty unstable and unpredictable - results like 0:3, 4:0, Amazing 2:0 vs Argentine, 1:1, Stunning 2:1 vs Germany, 1:2, 0:4, most yellow and most red cards are given to that team, the Semifinal was achieved and bronze medals were achieved, and a negative goals difference at the end. But a genius like Hristo Stoichkov and a strong defense in some of the key matches makes the difference. Were there reliable possibilities to construct some probabilities pre-match? Were they underdogs and when?
- The second leg in Thessaloniki, the coach Stanimir Stoilov strived to build the Levski defensive end-line far away from their own goalkeeper, while other team's departments press the PAOK's players in their zone. Have in mind, that all the week prior to the match, Asian Handicap moved mainly in the interval from PAOK (-1) to PAOK (-1,25) goals.
By the way, I remember that Radomir Antić built Atlético de Madrid's defensive line 35 meters away from his own goalkeeper, but that team was a strong favorite!
- The opposite case, when a very strong favorite team has an economical and very efficient style, is a double-edged sword.
They practice an energy-saving style, but observation is necessary for the player to notice the increased probability of unusual failures against outsiders. Italy and Brazil against weaker opponents have demonstrated this many times so far and it has mostly resulted in unusual draws. Noticing unusual game behavior allows us to construct highly probable scenarios and act accordingly in some markets.
- After the easily scored goal, the favorite Ulsan Hyundai became unrecognizable by the end of the first half and avoided conceding a minimum of 7 or 8 goals. Style change was amazing. Due to some non-quantitative indicators, the computed probability for a goal ahead in the home's favor was in my risk tolerance interval.
- Goalless Olympiacos's possession dominance vs Maccabi's strong attacks, especially the model spotted after the 60th minute.
- Atlético Tucumán several hours ago vs Newell's, again a very few shooting on the target and ball possession between 25 to 45 percent at some moments, won 2:0.
- Different examples happen every day around the world.
- In my view, a very good basic pre-test, aimin' to construct some probabilities is to test and decompose of the team, practicing similar to "tiki-taka"-style (Bayern under Guardiola's management may be a good model), vs team, practicing very strong soccer, mainly conservative-oriented, supremacy in the defense dept, and so on (Aris Thessaloniki under Héctor Cúper's governance may be a good model).

After processing all the info, and trying to reduce the possible cases to a few probabilistic scenarios, the further step is to determine the probabilities for all the scenarios, compute the odds, and build a business plan.
In my approach, the Handicap assessments are not built initially by themselves, they are among the secondary results after the end of the main task.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:15 am

arb12 wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:18 pm
ex-hft wrote:
Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:17 am
A lot of food for thought here, thank you.
@ Ex-hft,
I may hint to you a little bit further about some of my approaches, based on my observations if you are confused about the ideas, hinted in these soccer matches, described above in my previous post. However, try to research them for yourself on a very deep level, every additional viewpoint contributes a lot to the forum.

- Greece at UEFA EURO 2004: Among the basics of the team was the transformation of Rehhagel's approach. Research his work at the helm of the Werder Bremen and Kaiserslautern teams. Later make a comparison between Werder/K'lautern and Greece before Rehhagel's appearance in the Greek team's governance. Why was the management style adopted to the new conditions and where exactly were the changes? How exactly Rehhagel has managed the Greek team's evolution and the basics of their progress during that tournament? Were the pre-match odds skewed at some stages? Were they underdogs?
- Bulgaria at FIFA Mondial 1994: That's just crazy, but almost every night in the USA there were wild parties in the Bulgarian camp, while Berti Vogts, Alfio Basile, and other coaches of Bulgaria's opponents did hard training. Bulgarians' performance was very pretty unstable and unpredictable - results like 0:3, 4:0, Amazing 2:0 vs Argentine, 1:1, Stunning 2:1 vs Germany, 1:2, 0:4, most yellow and most red cards are given to that team, the Semifinal was achieved and bronze medals were achieved, and a negative goals difference at the end. But a genius like Hristo Stoichkov and a strong defense in some of the key matches makes the difference. Were there reliable possibilities to construct some probabilities pre-match? Were they underdogs and when?
- The second leg in Thessaloniki, the coach Stanimir Stoilov strived to build the Levski defensive end-line far away from their own goalkeeper, while other team's departments press the PAOK's players in their zone. Have in mind, that all the week prior to the match, Asian Handicap moved mainly in the interval from PAOK (-1) to PAOK (-1,25) goals.
By the way, I remember that Radomir Antić built Atlético de Madrid's defensive line 35 meters away from his own goalkeeper, but that team was a strong favorite!
- The opposite case, when a very strong favorite team has an economical and very efficient style, is a double-edged sword.
They practice an energy-saving style, but observation is necessary for the player to notice the increased probability of unusual failures against outsiders. Italy and Brazil against weaker opponents have demonstrated this many times so far and it has mostly resulted in unusual draws. Noticing unusual game behavior allows us to construct highly probable scenarios and act accordingly in some markets.
- After the easily scored goal, the favorite Ulsan Hyundai became unrecognizable by the end of the first half and avoided conceding a minimum of 7 or 8 goals. Style change was amazing. Due to some non-quantitative indicators, the computed probability for a goal ahead in the home's favor was in my risk tolerance interval.
- Goalless Olympiacos's possession dominance vs Maccabi's strong attacks, especially the model spotted after the 60th minute.
- Atlético Tucumán several hours ago vs Newell's, again a very few shooting on the target and ball possession between 25 to 45 percent at some moments, won 2:0.
- Different examples happen every day around the world.
- In my view, a very good basic pre-test, aimin' to construct some probabilities is to test and decompose of the team, practicing similar to "tiki-taka"-style (Bayern under Guardiola's management may be a good model), vs team, practicing very strong soccer, mainly conservative-oriented, supremacy in the defense dept, and so on (Aris Thessaloniki under Héctor Cúper's governance may be a good model).

After processing all the info, and trying to reduce the possible cases to a few probabilistic scenarios, the further step is to determine the probabilities for all the scenarios, compute the odds, and build a business plan.
In my approach, the Handicap assessments are not built initially by themselves, they are among the secondary results after the end of the main task.

This has become a very interesting thread! Much appreciated.
If my predictions were structured this way (a transition model between game states and the probabilities of such, based on team style and skill), I would focus exclusively on inplay.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:07 pm

ex-hft wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:15 am
This has become a very interesting thread! Much appreciated.
If my predictions were structured this way (a transition model between game states and the probabilities of such, based on team style and skill), I would focus exclusively on inplay.
@ Ex-hft,
In fact, what is named by you a "transition" model, is very much more complicated and combines selected aspects of both modes: in-play and pre-game, and various techniques according to the plan, including stats data, math, analysis of sporting tactics, decompositions of strategies, some additional info, some other components, including improved self-made metrics. In the long run, that approach performs pretty well in Cricket, Soccer, Basketball, Tennis and some others. However, in the short run, that model, when it comes to the selected group of events, performs better than various other approaches but it is still far away from a perfect performance. Among the main tasks for me in recent years are: simplifying my model without losing efficiency and improving productivity in the short term.

From what I understand, you practice a completely different approach. I'd love to hear some very general words and indirect hints about your approach, if appropriate. Naturally, don't reveal the methods you use, and don't jeopardize your business.
Thanks in advance.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:04 am

arb12 wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:07 pm
ex-hft wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:15 am
This has become a very interesting thread! Much appreciated.
If my predictions were structured this way (a transition model between game states and the probabilities of such, based on team style and skill), I would focus exclusively on inplay.
@ Ex-hft,
In fact, what is named by you a "transition" model, is very much more complicated and combines selected aspects of both modes: in-play and pre-game, and various techniques according to the plan, including stats data, math, analysis of sporting tactics, decompositions of strategies, some additional info, some other components, including improved self-made metrics. In the long run, that approach performs pretty well in Cricket, Soccer, Basketball, Tennis and some others. However, in the short run, that model, when it comes to the selected group of events, performs better than various other approaches but it is still far away from a perfect performance. Among the main tasks for me in recent years are: simplifying my model without losing efficiency and improving productivity in the short term.

From what I understand, you practice a completely different approach. I'd love to hear some very general words and indirect hints about your approach, if appropriate. Naturally, don't reveal the methods you use, and don't jeopardize your business.
Thanks in advance.
My goal is to cover as many leagues as possible, and eventually as many sports as possible.
Therefore, I only use what I can quantify, and try to look for features that are as broadly applicable as possible.

My basic approach is similar to the 538 model (Google “538 soccer prediction model”), and I am now moving towards an approach which computes a similar SPI based on neural networks. This means that the SPI is a vector and can predict different aspects of how the team plays - including the encoding of “style” - but not explicitly.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:54 pm

@ Ex-hft,
Thank you for sharing it.
Even the genius Mr. Jim Makos used a very simple strategy based on FiveThirtyEight a few years ago. However, you build some things on a very different level. I really appreciate all the constructive points of view on the forum.
All the best in your research and projects. :)
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Tue Aug 02, 2022 5:28 pm

arb12 wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:54 pm
@ Ex-hft,
Thank you for sharing it.
Even the genius Mr. Jim Makos used a very simple strategy based on FiveThirtyEight a few years ago. However, you build some things on a very different level. I really appreciate all the constructive points of view on the forum.
All the best in your research and projects. :)
Likewise, it’s very nice to have these discussions.
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Re: How to Win Asian Handicap Betting? Six Effective Ways

Fri Jan 17, 2025 4:30 pm

arb12 wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:54 pm
@ Ex-hft,
Thank you for sharing it.
Even the genius Mr. Jim Makos used a very simple strategy based on FiveThirtyEight a few years ago. However, you build some things on a very different level. I really appreciate all the constructive points of view on the forum.
All the best in your research and projects. :)
Oh, the memories. Yep, that was indeed a very simple strategy that would have worked, if 538's model could beat the crowd's wisdom, aka closing odds. It may have been that I quit tracking the model's performance too soon and a bigger sample could have led to another conclusion. But I'd be surprised if that was the case for anything available for free.

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