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I don't get it

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Re: I don't get it

Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:35 am

DaanK wrote:
arb12 wrote: Hello,
I believe you are on your semi-pro way, seeking for slow profit and steady gaining experience, and eventually aiming to switch full pro mode some day.
Good thing in your story is that you have no deadline. 
Not too good things-you know the arbing environment is worsened last years. Bookies tend to tolerate recreational players. There are big guys with financial/statistical background and HFT infrastructure, big amounts and fast bots. Big persons with specific inner info. Etc. Simply observe the last years events.
I've seen in-play arbs let's say lasting from milliseconds to a half of a second (rarely more)  in specific circumstances during the games. I'm talking for big and reliable bookies and exchanges only. Those well armed pros through bots and API access will beat you. Not to mention in-house bots in exchanges.
Well, you may also give a try combination prematch(lower margin) and in-play(higher margin) arbing. Prematch good arbing games by you and bookies limits are coming.
A hint only-you may pursue value betting and trading/hedging approaches if you are a math/statistics guy. But you have to observe and compare lots of patterns and data and to react quickly. If you have minimum a decade observations, you may spot when the big picture is not the same.

Yes, I am starting to study finance later this year, and I like my statistics. I have some trading experience, and I have some algorithms running on the stock market. I do not have any intentions on making programs that will do some hft betting or such. I just want to have it on the sides, getting some arb bets in, maybe 1-5 a day should be plenty for a steady account growth. 

It shouldn't be a problem if the hft guys are winning from me. But about the patterns that I need to discover: when arbing or value betting you only need a arb/valuebet seeker/software to find the opportunities, right? What are the patterns that need to be discoverd, and where are the patterns for? Because the arb/valulebet opertunity is already found by some piece of software.

Thanks in advance!
Everyone has the software you've mentioned - the players and the bookies. Big boys have expensive and fast bots. Arbs may disappear for no time. That's why classical arbing is not what it used to be.

Give a try to value betting and trading.
You've a financial and statistics background. That's very good.
Probably you're familiar with the probability theory and statistical analysis of big samples of various data.
Hint for you - similar to financial firms, you may have positions based on fundamental and technical analysis. Value betting is like fundamental one. Trends and data processing may help to your technical one.
The observations must give you data sample as big as possible. Combined with  deeper understanding in terms of sports game, you will notice many patterns. Data patterns and pure sporting patterns will give you the base for value and trade decisions.
Last edited by arb12 on Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I don't get it

Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:04 am

DaanK wrote: That should be better I think! Having a limit of bookies (5-10) with a bit more capital should give a great head start indeed. Are these limitations coming really fast? Or are they most of the times after the bonuses are given?

Also I have had a thought about another thing: Arb finding software has for example 50 bookies that are supported. When I am arbing prematch, and thus a faster account closure, I will go through all the bookies within a year (for example). After that I need to be really creative to make more accounts on the bookies sites. Any tips about multiaccounting?

Thanks in advance!
As stated in this thread, today there are many reasons to choose value betting over arbing. When I started out, arbing was still possible and my accounts got limited only after the bonuses were given, but that was 5 years ago, so things might have changed. Actually, I started out value betting for the first 100 bets or so. It was great and there were good profits. As soon as I encountered the first small losing streak taking away only a little amount of my profits, I switched to arbing as it was mentally easier to cope with. In retrospective, it would have been much better just to continue value betting as I later found out that I had paid high "insurance fees" to those accounts that would not limit me, the sharp books. So I was left with lots of limited accounts that had all given profits. Approximately 50% of those profits went into my pocket while the rest were deficit at the sharp books. The sharps must really have loved arbers.

The mental challenge of dealing with the ups and downs in your bankroll, is the most difficult aspect of value betting I think.

As for multi accounting, I don't have any tips as I have not been doing this. I am sure there are other members who can comment on this matter.
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Re: I don't get it

Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:21 am

Perfectly said - let's assume value betting is more intelligent arbing without paying insurance fees to the losing positions. Mastering the losing streaks and drawdowns and good value choice are required.

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