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I need help understanding value betting

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
4l
4lexy4

Re: I need help understanding value betting

Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:55 am

sory but big leagues with big payouts on sharps, just cant have so big yield. FACT, AMEN
Tipfro
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:34 am

There are still some books available without the 5% tax.

Also some values out there at books with 5%-tax, but they are tough to find.

Meanwhile I know what it means, when one say you need balls of steel while valuebetting.

After 80 bets -15% yield and ROI: 90%. I know it is a ridicoulos sample size, but it is really hard to believe in valuebetting (with an alert software) after such a start.
4l
4lexy4

Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:22 am

uffffff 80 bets and you are still in minus???? Look like your strategy dont work at all
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:58 pm

showMeDaMoney wrote: My Testing

- 1 solid week of bets
- 100 bets
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
- Only major events, no little leagues, juniors
- Bets that only have an edge
- Proper bets with bookmaker at those odds, not fantasy paper bets.
- Discipline

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Perhaps 100 bets is not really enough, from what I understand you can easily lose money some months. But then some months you will land on top.
Hi please allow me to ask some questions :

1. What is the amount of total bankroll you started with?
2. How many Bookies do you use to achieve this result?

Look forward. Thank you.
Lu
Luca

Re: I need help understanding value betting

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:47 pm

Briefly on your questions.
1. What is the amount of total bankroll you started with?
- The bigger your bankroll, the better.1% of 1000 euros is 10 euros, 1% of 10000 euros is 100 euros
2. How many Bookies do you use to achieve this result?
- for normal value betting - as much as possible, with some of them having priority (bet365; Bwin; WillHill; Betfair sportsbook; Ladbrokes; Unibet)
- for specialized value betting Pinnacle + Asian big (Sbobet; Dfabet: 188bet) are enough
Lu
Luca

Re: I need help understanding value betting

Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:50 pm

Sorry, now i see that the question is to showMeDaMoney.I thought you were asking basically about value betting.Again, Sorry!
patan
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:34 pm

Hello,I was trying to find a topic about this but I couldn't. 
When I am value betting there are some times that I lose a bet because of a goal scored after 90 minutes.
So is it better to leave the bet until the end or close the bet when you can have stake + 50% of the winning bet?
kustef
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:08 pm

simply just dont look for when goals were scored just note result to your statics (lose,win void,lose half, won half..).. also is important to check if you beat the closing lines.. nothing else.. if you got value let it run..
patan
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:34 pm

Thanks,you are right but I forgot to mention than most of my bets are live.
So even live bets do you think is better to let it run?
kustef wrote: simply just dont look for when goals were scored just note result to your statics (lose,win void,lose half, won half..).. also is important to check if you beat the closing lines.. nothing else.. if you got value let it run..
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:57 am

i think yes.. i do so ..somethimes goal at extra time will kill you sometimes help you.. if you betting value bets in long term will be profit on your side
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:06 pm

@patan there is a tendancy in most humans to focus the attention on losses and missed opportunities more than it is worth. I can only encourage you, as kustef mentions, to strive for objectivity through your own statistics. Sometimes a notion can be true, but in far most cases it is not.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:58 pm

Psychologists Kahneman and Tversky have shown that the pain of financial loss is more than twice as intense as the pleasure of an equivalent gain. There are some psychological states that must be mustered from a smart bettor.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Tue Sep 29, 2020 2:33 pm

arbusers wrote: Psychologists Kahneman and Tversky have shown that the pain of financial loss is more than twice as intense as the pleasure of an equivalent gain. There are some psychological states that must be mustered from a smart bettor.
I can confirm it...every time I do a mistake on arbing I can have an extra loss or an extra gain. When the second one occours, let's say +100, I'm quite indifferent but when I have a 100 loss it's frustrating.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Tue Sep 29, 2020 2:35 pm

...even if it's natural that on the long period they compensate themself.
patan
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Tue Sep 29, 2020 2:46 pm

Thank you all for your advices.
Vidablue I think you are right.Maybe if i close the bet earlier i will have some profits and reduce the variance but as you said in the long run probably I will also have reduced profits.
Arbusers actually I was reading this article about the psychology 2-3 days ago and it is very useful.

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