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Isn't the arb game dead?

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dealer wins
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:30 pm

Theres not the liquidity on Betfair to make more, in fact liquidity been decreasing over the last few years, even though I have expanded to Betdaq , Matchbook etc
Never trust a goose!!!
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:25 am

We could write an encyclopedia here, but very quickly, the pre-game arbitrage as we know it died some years ago. What is left is in-play arbitrage that still looks very strong.
I recall some years ago a thread about arbing with Pinnacle and Betfair only and the fierce attack on it from those who were practicing it.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:02 am

There are rare bookies in some low rate countries where pre-game is still strong.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:22 pm

arbusers wrote: We could write an encyclopedia here, but very quickly, the pre-game arbitrage as we know it died some years ago. What is left is in-play arbitrage that still looks very strong.
I recall some years ago a thread about arbing with Pinnacle and Betfair only and the fierce attack on it from those who were practicing it.
What do you mean by "the fierce attack on it from those who were practicing it." ?

I too, find it hard to believe that someone could still arb without a softbook. He may have some secret sauce, but it must be trading and not true arbing.
ju
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:58 pm

arbusers wrote: We could write an encyclopedia here, but very quickly, the pre-game arbitrage as we know it died some years ago. What is left is in-play arbitrage that still looks very strong.
no ,no, dealerwins is making big money from pre-market arbs, no decreases in profit for over 10 years he claims and still
same earnings now, I think remarkable and all without ever using more than one i.d I believe

as i said he is unique, I stopped pre-match arbing many years ago, this guy is very top arber.
Last edited by justanarber on Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:26 am

First time responding.

Thought I would just chime in on the topic "Isn't arbing dead".

I started arbing last March and when I saw the promise in it, I dropped out of university to pursue it full time. It is still very much alive and in my first year I 2x/3x'd what my most successful friends (lawyers/doctors) were making. I think if you are finding it difficult you should reevaluate your strategy (although I know arbing sportsbooks in Australia can be difficult with their limitations on live betting). I have had a lot of success trading niche-country specific books and looking at sport specific to that country (because books tend to have higher limits on country specific sport) so that could be a good place to start. If you want some advice I would be happy to give you some tips but no expert so don't expect too much.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:57 am

dealer wins wrote: Why would I possibly want to lie lol
There are many reasons why people would lie. A common reason must be the sensation of an ego boost, even if it is based on false premises.

People question why you're making the same now as 10 years ago? While some people find a strategy that works, then leavíng when conditions get tough, others are constantly trying to evolve in order to keep up with changing market conditions. It seems you're accepting being banned from every sportsbook and that has left you with time to learn the mecanisms of sharp markets instead of wasting time on a less educational process trying to dodge book limitations.

So you probably have been improving your skills with the same pace as the markets have become efficient, and therefore you're making the same now as in previous years. Have you had the same knowledge 10 years ago as you have today, you would naturally have made much more back then.

The fact that you're arbing and not value betting is a result of the personal style you've developed. I am guessing that you take bets where you have learned to predict the prematch odds movements and cover these bets at a later stage before game start. That's a sort of arbing. You could have chosen to value bet, but that would have required time, study and risk in order to learn to pick your winners. Instead you've chosen to refine your arbing techniques.

Thank you for an interesting story which make sense - at least to me it does. Based on this, I find no reason not to believe you.
Last edited by VidaBlue on Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:27 pm

What an interesting a fantastic post.

And you are right, I stick to the one way of betting I know well, that works (At the moment lol) and pays the bills.
Never trust a goose!!!
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justanarber

Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:27 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
dealer wins wrote: Why would I possibly want to lie lol
There are many reasons why people would lie. A common reason must be the sensation of an ego boost, even if it is based on false premises.

People question why you're making the same now as 10 years ago? While some people find a strategy that works, then leavíng when conditions get tough, others are constantly trying to evolve in order to keep up with changing market conditions. It seems you're accepting being banned from every sportsbook and that has left you with time to learn the mecanisms of sharp markets instead of wasting time on a less educational process trying to dodge book limitations.

So you probably have been improving your skills with the same pace as the markets have become efficient, and therefore you're making the same now as in previous years. Have you had the same knowledge 10 years ago as you have today, you would naturally have made much more back then.

The fact that you're arbing and not value betting is a result of the personal style you've developed. I am guessing that you take bets where you have learned to predict the prematch odds movements and cover these bets at a later stage before game start. That's a sort of arbing. You could have chosen to value bet, but that would have required time, study and risk in order to learn to pick your winners. Instead you've chosen to refine your arbing techniques.

Thank you for an interesting story which make sense - at least to me it does. Based on this, I find no reason not to believe you.
I have looked back on most of dealer wins posts, trying to work out his amazing secret, he is banned/limited from all sportsbooks in uk,
he frowns quite strongly on anyone who has used more than one i.d and claims to have used only one i.d in his arbing career so I'm afraid
the conclusion you've come to cannot be accurate vidablue as dealerwins with no soft bookmakers would have to use betfair exchange
extensively and would have paid massive amounts in premium charge but none of his posts ever talk about paying this.

It will remain a secret of how after over 10 years this remarkable guy maintains his profits on pre-match arbing whilst being banned from all
sportsbooks and only ever using one i.d.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:55 pm

We are all here to make money, and keep abreast of the industry and protect ourselves against potentially rogue sites and payment processors etc.  No one has ever, or will ever post their winning system, but we all post general tips and info which help each other with basic betting, and avoiding scam books etc.

As for premium charges,  I am getting close to them, so have recently opened a fair exchange account via my Pinnacle agent Premium Tradings (Which I am happy for them to confirm here publically) which I am using for any matches with a large potential green market. 

Everyone has their way of making a living, and I wish everyone success today, tomorrow and for as long as you bet/gamble/trade
Never trust a goose!!!
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:01 pm

dealer wins wrote: We are all here to make money, and keep abreast of the industry and protect ourselves against potentially rogue sites and payment processors etc.  No one has ever, or will ever post their winning system, but we all post general tips and info which help each other with basic betting, and avoiding scam books etc.

As for premium charges,  I am getting close to them, so have recently opened a fair exchange account via my Pinnacle agent Premium Tradings (Which I am happy for them to confirm here publically) which I am using for any matches with a large potential green market. 

Everyone has their way of making a living, and I wish everyone success today, tomorrow and for as long as you bet/gamble/trade
How could I contact you? PMs not allowed here?
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:16 pm

justanarber wrote: I have looked back on most of dealer wins posts, trying to work out his amazing secret, he is banned/limited from all sportsbooks in uk,
he frowns quite strongly on anyone who has used more than one i.d and claims to have used only one i.d in his arbing career so I'm afraid
the conclusion you've come to cannot be accurate vidablue as dealerwins with no soft bookmakers would have to use betfair exchange
extensively and would have paid massive amounts in premium charge but none of his posts ever talk about paying this.

It will remain a secret of how after over 10 years this remarkable guy maintains his profits on pre-match arbing whilst being banned from all
sportsbooks and only ever using one i.d.
I have not looked back on dealerwins' posts. I consider myself completely unbiased and only reasoning on what is written in this thread and here I cannot find arguments to why that wouldn't be true. On the other hand, I am quite puzzled by your arguments. They make no sense to me:
"he would have to pay massive amounts in premium charge" - well, pay the charge and keep the rest or avoid it by staying below the limit for that charge. What about the other three (pinn, mb and betdaq). They don't do payouts?
"trying to work out his amazing secret" - of course the intelligent forum member would never give away secrets. This is give and take up to a certain limit. You may give advices, encouragements and contribute in technical discussions, but it would be foolish to leave hints that would reveal your secrets. Noone should do that.
"he frowns quite strongly on anyone who has used more than one i.d" - so do I. Multi-accounting is responsible for many of the extra hassles that bookmakers have to impose on us. It makes it worse for everyone. In addition, spending one's energy on dodging the bookmakers in order to execute the usual strategy does not evolve you as a sports bettor. Probably dealerwins has accumulated wealth by now, not in the form of money, but in the form of skill that is invaluable to him in continuing to do what he does while everyone else is complaining about the increase in bookmaker restrictions.
ju
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:23 pm

dealer wins wrote: As for premium charges,  I am getting close to them, so have recently opened a fair exchange account via my Pinnacle agent Premium Tradings (Which I am happy for them to confirm here publically) which I am using for any matches with a large potential green market. 
is that legal to use fair exchange from the UK?  don't you have to use a vpn to hide your location? I thought this type of deceit
was against your morals? it's very surprising using your methods that £50k+ profits for over 10 years is only now in PC territory?
ju
justanarber

Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:28 pm

VidaBlue wrote:
justanarber wrote: I have looked back on most of dealer wins posts, trying to work out his amazing secret, he is banned/limited from all sportsbooks in uk,
he frowns quite strongly on anyone who has used more than one i.d and claims to have used only one i.d in his arbing career so I'm afraid
the conclusion you've come to cannot be accurate vidablue as dealerwins with no soft bookmakers would have to use betfair exchange
extensively and would have paid massive amounts in premium charge but none of his posts ever talk about paying this.

It will remain a secret of how after over 10 years this remarkable guy maintains his profits on pre-match arbing whilst being banned from all
sportsbooks and only ever using one i.d.
"he frowns quite strongly on anyone who has used more than one i.d" - so do I. Multi-accounting is responsible for many of the extra hassles that bookmakers have to impose on us. It makes it worse for everyone. In addition, spending one's energy on dodging the bookmakers in order to execute the usual strategy does not evolve you as a sports bettor. Probably dealerwins has accumulated wealth by now, not in the form of money
it's all about money, one i.d, 1000 i.d's, it's all about money, there is no other way to accumulate "wealth" in this business.

100% of us on here are greedy "money driven" guys, no point in lying to the forum or ourselves
Last edited by justanarber on Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:38 pm

justanarber wrote:
is that legal to use fair exchange from the UK?  don't you have to use a vpn to hide your location? I thought this type of deceit
was against your morals? it's very surprising using your methods that £50k+ profits for over 10 years is only now in PC territory?
Use it with a vpn, why not, thats the whole purpose of agents, to save us from stupid governments that restrict our betting .
Never trust a goose!!!

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