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Messages - Shawn2k

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1
Value betting talk / Re: Breakeven after 1000 valuebets
« on: Yesterday at 02:13:32 PM »
I'm curious, and sorry to go a bit off-topic, but what made you guys move from poker to betting? Is poker too hard nowadays?

Pokercompanies have become a lot more greedy over the years. That's the short version. Also as Braca93 said, the game has evolved dramatically the last 10 years. 10x harder now than before.

2
Value betting talk / Re: Breakeven after 1000 valuebets
« on: February 12, 2019, 10:15:10 AM »
Bet365 move their lines quicker in the big leagues, but you will find valuebets there.

I'm also from poker. As you probably know a breakeven (and negative) stretch for 100K hands happends even for very good (i.e +5bb\100 hands) players... Patience is extremely important.

3
Value betting talk / Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« on: February 11, 2019, 02:05:16 PM »
Yeah, but what if you're betting at the asians or exchanges? Not easy to beat Pinnacle juicefree line at that exact moment....  ;)

4
Value betting talk / Re: Breakeven after 1000 valuebets
« on: February 11, 2019, 01:26:20 PM »
Hi Braca93,

Personally I would say 1000 bets is not enough to expect EV = Result. Yes, it's reasonable to expect being up after 1000 bets with +5% compared to Pinnacle juicefree closing line, but variance can still have a huge impact. 5% +\- from EV is probably normal. The good thing is that it could turn around at any point. Theoretically it's the same chance for running 5% above EV, as 5% under.

I would have started to look at different odds rangers, different leagues and sport - See if you find any pattern where you win and\or not. This could also be misleading, since you may have few bets in the different ranges, but it's worth following.

The best thing is that you will learn more and more if you continue your work. Theoretical understanding + Experience are a golden combination here as everywhere else  :)

5
Value betting talk / Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« on: February 08, 2019, 11:45:16 PM »
I agree with you. The ideal thing would be having Betfair's closing line I guess, but as far as I know there is no tracking of this?

6
Value betting talk / Re: Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« on: February 08, 2019, 11:35:48 AM »
Yes, thanks, forgot to write that. This is with flat staking.

7
Value betting talk / Theoretical measurement of Valuebets
« on: February 08, 2019, 10:06:20 AM »
Hi,

I've got some Excel sheets, and trying to find the theoretical value longterm, which should be a decent measurement if Pinnacle's juice free closing line are close to the truth.

Let's say we got thousand bets. To find value, we should first find value of each bet. My thinking is that we have to find a number, or factor, for each bet. Let's say we got a few bets like these:
* We got 2,20 vs Pinnacle 2,10 (again, juicefree). This would give us 2,20/2,10 = 1,0476
* We got 3,95 vs Pinnacle 4,20 - Gives us 3,95/4,20 = 0,9405

To find total value, we should add these factors and divide on total number of bets. In this example; 1,0476 + 0,9405 = 1,988 / 2 = 0,994

In this example our total value is negative. 99,4% is what we should expect to get from our bets.

Do anyone think this is the wrong way to look at it, our should it work as measurement over large samples?


Any thoughts appreciated,
Shawn

8
Bookies discussion / Re: royrichie not accesible
« on: January 14, 2019, 09:39:28 AM »
It's incredible that MGA can't do anything. I mean, how on earth can we trust a company if that's how it works?

As long as they get their license money they're happy I guess.

9
Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: January 11, 2019, 06:41:25 PM »
is anybody here who has atleast 10k bets on pinnacle with profit around 3-5%? Betting via his own bot?


Hello Arbusers & Friends,

my project is known by arbusers and he motivated me to join that thread which I love to do now as start into the new year - thanks for that.

I did follow that thread for long already, also was giving arbusers some of my samples which he already posted here.

My bot does have accs on misc. bookies - one acc with 9872 bets right now without getting banned/still operational, showing 4,72% ROI over the entire period which is 6+ month now.


Regards
WGFP

Do you have any isolated stats for Pinnacle and\or other asians\exchanges?

10
Bookies discussion / Re: royrichie not accesible
« on: January 09, 2019, 03:34:01 PM »
https://www.askgamblers.com/online-casinos/roy-richie-casino-review/

This seems bad. Is there actually nothing a player can do when having funds on a site like this? MGA could not help? Not anyone? Any info will be appreciated.

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Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: January 07, 2019, 01:33:56 PM »
For how many bets is the downswing lasting? And do you have a ROI for it? Seems extremely brutal.

12
Is this another hint that valuebetting is the way to go (soon)? Obviously not helping if you're already valuebetting these leagues at Pinnacle, but if you're an arber it won't make much sense to arb and losing 5%+\- on Pinnacle bets.

Agree what you say about exchanges, but personally I feel there has been a negative evolvement also there.

13
Bookies discussion / Re: royrichie not accesible
« on: January 07, 2019, 08:42:12 AM »
Ouch.. it sounds bad. Also have money there, so it will hurt if it's gone. They're Malta licensed right?

Do the players have anything they can do if a site just goes down with your money? ...or are they gone?

14
Bookies discussion / Re: royrichie not accesible
« on: January 07, 2019, 08:19:00 AM »
Hi. Have seen the same problem there before at least one time (Maybe two, don't remember); Site down for a day or two.

Hope it's the same this time, but I think it's been down 3 days now, so a bit worried....

15
Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: January 06, 2019, 10:09:32 PM »
Thanks for the updates Arbusers. Very interesting stuff!

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