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Messages - ODDS4STATS

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As you know, Arbusers started a long term research project, AVBI (Arbusers Value Betting Index )  in February 2018. This one year project resulted a very good €13k (€13,164) profit to this day!

After several analyses of this period we fine tuned our ODDS4STATS (aka O4S) value betting strategies and services. Our goal remains to support smart betting and smart gamblers with our unique value betting solutions.

See the results below:


IMPORTANT:
- On the chart above, in tooltips, you see the start and end date of the one year AVBI period (Feb 2018 and Feb 2019)
- The charts show the whole working period of these strategies from Aug 2015 to Feb 2019!
- The information and results below the charts refers also to the period of Aug 2015 - Feb 2019.

All the seven O4S value betting strategy packages are public on odds4stats.com with full details. Check each of them.


Moreover, O4S value betting tools (Value MinerValue Miner+) are FREE!


If you follow us in this topic, we will show you how these value betting strategies work. We will also publish important and useful information about value betting, step by step.

Follow us here or start using O4S value betting strategies on odds4stats.com. We would like you to create better strategies than ours with FREE O4S value betting tools.

Stay tuned.

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Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: January 08, 2019, 02:59:23 PM »
The last 4 O4S tips:

- Kidderminster 3.14 Marathonbet
- Forfar 1.94 Pinnacle
- Dumbarton 2.26 Betfair with 2%
- Club America 2.30 Pinnacle

You can check and see, 3 bets is basebook, and 1 is soft.
We have a unique and self-developed mathematical formula.

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Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: January 08, 2019, 06:17:08 AM »
Thank you Arbusers this post. We would like to emphasize, how objective Arbusers's analyses and thoughts are.

Some important thoughts:

At the beginning of February 2018, our target was an average monthly yield of 5-6%, which, based on the preliminary estimates, meant about 50% profit compared to the investment. Of course, the costs should also be taken into account here, but since the plan was completed successfully by the end of the year, we can be satisfied.

At the same time (as Arbusers and we also wrote earlier) after raising the stakes, we had 1 positive month and then 2 negative ones, which had a very strong effect on the final result, unfortunately negatively.

Reality for the future remains a 5-6% monthly yield, what we can beat the base and soft bookies with, using our strategies. The amount of our data is representative, so we still believe in quantitative analysis that guarantees realistic and sustainable returns.

In addition, it is also important to say, that the stakes can be raise significantly. We just have to catch the right time for the raise (or for the entry point). Hard task.

Good news, that the day is very close when ODDS4STATS will provide much more assistance to ODDS4STATS users than ever before. Stay tuned!



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Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: December 20, 2018, 11:59:15 AM »
We want to remain factual: the current Marathonbet account, used by ODDS4STATS, is beyond the 1000 placed bet. This account has been alive since the beginning of 2018 and has generated a yield of 7.64% from the beginnings, which of course means more payments. Arbusers can confirm it.

Again, we add that we avoid arbitrage with our bets.

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Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: November 28, 2018, 10:53:30 AM »
Thank you for your response and positive feedback to our post!

Yes, indeed, there are others in the AVBI index portfolio. Arbusers can confirm it if ODDS4STATS represents a big fraction of the index or not.

We are sure that it was not the greed that lead us to the decision we brought. In spite of the large number of available data, we did not model precisely enough, but we also included the intuition of the decision, which should not be used for a specifically math-based analysis.

We learned from it. As we have done before, we will still be objective and remain calm even when it comes to bet-handling. We're based on numbers, not on the intuition.

As far as Marathonbet is concerned, by our experience, there are 2 tricks that we suggest to pay attention to at this office. One is fixed bets. The other is to avoid the arbitrage position.

2484 events, 10-11 bets/day: Yes, thanks to our many years of thorough collection and data validation, we have a huge sample data. At ODDS4STATS our approach is that the result of a strategy is representative only when we reach at least 500 bets in that strategy.

We think, that beating the soft bookies is not rocket science (everyone knows what bookies we are talking about). However, to override base offices requires much higher qualifications. We will also be writing about our experience, information and ODDS4STATS related methodology.

Thanks again for the inspirational professional feedback!

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Value betting talk / Re: The Arbusers Value Betting Index
« on: November 26, 2018, 04:36:50 PM »
We, the ODDS4STATS team think, that it's time to leave a comment on the AVBI forum.
 
Our thoughts have two main goals:
- Sharing with you the changes, experiences and important conclusions of the past period.
- Give you an insight into how the ODDS4STATS odds strategy creation works.

 
First of all, it is worth knowing:
The mission of ODDS4STATS is to offer top tips and tip-strategies for our users to be successful in sports betting, based on our bigdata, validated accurately and with high-level maths, analyzes and strategies.
 
1. The AVBI portfolio and the lessons of the past 1 year:
 
From the launch of the AVBI portfolio, ODDS4STATS performed very well over the Q1-Q3 of this year. The numbers showed the results themselves, so we did not have to comment on Arbusers' regular reports. In this period from February to September, during the 2484 events, Arbusers' unit charts showed a 9.89% yield. This was, of course, an awesome period. But we do not want to talk about this period now. But the next one, having very important conclusions.

From the beginning of September, until the end of October, we ran into a very strong downswing. We are adding, we expected, and even we waited for the fall, but not to such an extent. This period, after about 1000 events, showed -7.74% yield on Arbusers' unit chart!

This negative period has led us to find the mistakes and focus on our strongest, most promising strategy.

It is worth knowing again, that the ODDS4STATS team has consistently processed data for years. Database is analyzed and verified record by record. We analyze short- and long-term basis as well and this way we forecast the results for the future. Some of our strategies have proven for more than 3 years that we have been on track, we are on the rigth way.

2. The main problems and conclusions, of the past period

2/1. One of the main problems of the past period is that Marathonbet - and several other soft bookies - have rearranged their market activity so far. One of the most important changes is that they do not give very early and very high odds.
 
Yes, Marathonbet, I know now many people shake their heads. But based on our calculations and algorithms, we can work at high quality level with Marathonbet data. However, this office has surprisingly high liquidity opportunities in a high reputation market. Reasonable game and no limit! The Arbusers can confirm this.

The change in Marathonbet has had a strong effect on our performance, since we could make 20-30% of our bets earlier to Marathonbet's events. At this time it is only 5% now!
A similar problem is the termination of WilliamHill's "Boost odds" promotion, which did not help us as well.

We would add that it is very important to know that ODDS4STATS does not want to beat soft book offices, but base offices. Fortunately, because of our enormous and very accurate quality odds database, our possibilities seem endless.

2/2. Another thing that everyone should be very careful to keep in mind when working with a large database!
 
There was no strong drop in yield for months that we waited for with the Arbusers colleague to have the right entry point to raise our bets. After the long wait, we tought that the start of the new season by mid-July will be fine to raise our bets.

It was predicted that there was going to be a downturn, but this period came about 1.5 months later than the we tought.

It is a very important lesson and a conclusion that before deciding to raise, you have to predefine the extent of possible downturn (eg. 250 events with -10% yield or 500 events with -7.5%), thus reducing any losses. But experience says that we can not be prepared for all extremes, because the extreme records will be also beaten again and again - do not have illusions. However, we did not wait for the accurate drop - we made a mistake! Do not make this mistake!
 
And where are we going now?
 
We have analyzed and have been thinking a lot about market changes, and we have taken the right steps to be aligned to the bookmakers' changes. It was enough to fine tune, we did not have to radically modify our previous strategies. After the refinements, the results are appropriate again. With these thoughtful steps we decreased the risks, and we are very positive about the future!

We will continue to be constructive, and we will continue to develop. Therefore, and looking at the needs and requests of our users, a very positive progress and development is expected soon in the life of ODDS4STATS. This will bring strong advance to ODDS4STATS users over other sports bettors. Soon we will announce this, stay tuned!

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ODDS4STATS / Re: ODDS4STATS Fundamentals
« on: August 28, 2018, 08:56:13 AM »
Thanks for the valuable thoughts, you wrote a very good example.
It is extremely easy to construct a bad hypothesis from misleading or non-relevant statistical data and deceive ourselves, so I agree.
What we are publishing is a kind of "thought-provoking" so users are able to see "behind the numbers".
We also wonder why the numbers are being what are they and whether it can be explained or not.
Specifically, I'm saying that we have to "lead" the numbers and not the other way around.

I am asking Arbusers to share the statistics of our current collaboration, such as match numbers and ROI. I do not think that this will have to be explained specifically because Arbusers is given an objective opinion and O4S accepts the rating given by Arbusers.

Based on the experiences of the past period, I think we will be giving great help in the future to successfully process the database, we are working on this guide now.


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ODDS4STATS / Re: ODDS4STATS Fundamentals
« on: August 26, 2018, 02:05:50 PM »
I opened an account on O4S. if i'm right we can just check past season and also past matches of recent seasons' valuebet strategies but it doesn't show us future values.

So in team monitor how do you see future games ? Are you checking manually ? Should we do this manually everytime ?

And how will we decide if the match fits our strategiy is value ?

For example: Spain - LaLiga - 2017-2018 - (No Home/Away Team) - Outcome: Home - Odds: 2,7 - 4,50

today there is one match may fit to my strategy "Sevilla - Villarreal" so should i bet on villareal no matter what or should i check if villareal is value or not ?

Again sorry for my english..

Thank you for your interest, you see it very well, we will not show future matches on the O4S according to the filtering.
You need to manually search for the next event after filtering.

How to look for Value?
This can not be described in only 1-2 sentences, so we will write a longer post with many valuable information.

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Links / Re: The World Cup Contest 2018
« on: July 18, 2018, 08:28:31 AM »
Thanks for the opportunity, it was a great competition and congratulations to the first place winner (Zazoo).
I started as the O4S owner under the name issey76 and of course, I wanted to reach the first place, but in the last 5 rounds, I practically did the same bets so I could not take the lead from my opponent.
My strategy was simple, examining the past 3 world cups based on statistics, possibly looking for the most popular results and their probabilities in events.
Some statistics from my own results:

Out of 62 bets, I had 10 correct scores, those would total 93.00 points on Bet365 closing odds, which is exactly equivalent to 50.00% ROI.

I made a huge mistake because unfortunately, I could not place the bet on 2 events, I paid for my fault :)

Thanks for the game, it was fun!

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ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: April 11, 2018, 06:21:24 AM »
Hi,

We have good news for you: ODDS4STATS' odds database has continued to grow. Furthermore, we can say that after listening to subscriber requests, we have made 2 major improvements over the past period.

One is the unique filtering of Pinnacle sports odds in the Value Miner, so with this, 100% of the market leader leagues can be filtered and analyzed.

Another very important development is Value Miner Plus, where you can filter the leagues with just a few clicks, specifying the parameters, such as Home / Away / Draw, odds range, Profit / Payout / Hit rate sorting and date selections.

This development gives a very accurate picture of the transparency of the leagues, especially when you compare the them to each other.

In the following period, we will re-analyze the leagues and teams that we have previously predicted on Arbusers, and we will show you how helpful ODDS4STATS' tools are for pro bettors, gamblers or who want to be, so for you.

Beat the bookies. You can.

ODDS4STATS

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ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 25, 2017, 12:32:07 PM »
Good day,

Took a (very shallow) look at the service and wanted to ask why softs are considered for closing odds. Skimming through these pages I see it has already been brought up.
Nonetheless, I'd rather ask again why is there an option at all, to consider closing odds of those books?
The question takes into consideration the following: A Marathonbet closing odd is meaningless and therefore irrelevant to any statistical analysis and predictions.
Would you consider that to be true?
All this is said because you are selling a service with a very-friendly interface(kudos) intended to save effort(kudos again), which can be quite misleading to some users( as in, a user will run some filters, look at percentages and arrive at conclusions).

Have you considered(would you find it useful?) to provide the functionality to run a set of matches results(any filter) against a basebook closing odds and the same set against a soft book afterwards(since you have the option) and the payout shown would be the difference of payouts between the two( so two bookie filters, base and soft)?
This would provide some measurement of bookies efficiency, rather then a predictor of outcomes(or what's left on the table).

Also, do you have any (at least vague) plans to expand the db to include other types of stats. One aspect would be the temporal, for example, something as simple as time of goal scored?
I understand( and have no clue  :D) what would you measure performance against, but maybe there is no need. One stat type can be run against another. (this, to my mind, is a short jump from what you have as I assume the same infrastructure can be used, though a proper db may hard to get by).
Then end result (stat against stat) could be a percentage, conveniently shown as odd( in various formats).
This could open a door to live-betting, where possibly more wiggle room is to be found.

This Qs may be a bit off of your main goals for the service, they are not meant with any negativity about what you offer.
Cheers

Hello,

Thanks for the thoughts, we're glad you're open to communication. Well, let's just say that the ODDS4STATS team did spend a lot of time to represent this database to the public.
About closing odds and Marathonbet, we know that the most accurate data is the closing odds, there is two things we are very concerned about at ODDS4STATS:

One of that is every match should be under 100% payout, not in arb situation, so there are no unrealistic odds among the data! So, even the Marathonbet is a soft, they can not give an abruptly different odds from the market (btw Marathonbet make mistakes with their opening odds)

The other one is that in many cases the given bookie does not give odds to every match (obviously this is not true for the top leagues);
Example, if Pinnacle does not give odds for a game in Argentine Primer League, then the data would be incomplete, but if we add data from another bookie then we have odds for the event.

Anyway, apart from this, it's a good idea to add a filter for soft and basebook odds, we will consider that. But you also need to know that because of this 100% payout this filter will not have a strong impact on the stats.

And yes, there is more in our pool than HT/FT and scorers minute, but such a development requires a lot of work, and if the market demand it then we will provide it :)

ODDS4STATS

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ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 25, 2017, 10:06:14 AM »
First of all thank you for you for your quick response and i wish you all the best (because i alrealdy see value and  with a few improvements it will be helpfull for the Pro bettor)

The improvements i can see helping me are:
Having a bookmaker filter,as a matter of fact,Pinnacle filter as every other bookmaker shapes their odds according Pinnacle(Pinnacle Lean)

The other one is having the openers,it might be a lot of work for your staff however there are a few crucial things that openers can show the Pro bettor and i will share one of the reasons,to compare the avg deviation between openers and closers and to see how much the league is exploitable,how much edge can i get if follow that league.The more the opening odds move in relation to closing odds the less efficient and therefore more exploitable and bigger edge can be acquired
And the openers are also crucial to another few things that i won t share at the moment.

Regarding your H2H mention i find wiith all due respect appalling that mention because its a very small sample size,so much circunstances that change over time and to be honest as a soccer enthusiast in soccer every game is shaped differently.Thats the only worry i m getting by your responses,i like the proactive approach,the explanations but i hate the references about huge small samples, thinks like h2h or Juventus,Liverpool and so on..i remember at least 3/4 stoppage time goals in 2012/2013 at home by Juve so if they weren t in all of the sudden your so called super sttaetgy goes down the drain.

To recap to test the market efficiency for a league yes,to find a subset of games in a niche league where the bookie might be making a mistake yes but Team strategy or H2H is ridiculous and i will mention the law of  The Law of Large Numbers (note LAW, even you can't argue with a LAW can you?) states that as the number of trials increases the ratio of successes to converges upon the expected ration of success.wll i think 50 matches (team strategy) or H2H 10 matches doesn t fit in that category

Anyway thank you and all the best,just trying to help and give an honest opinion,i might be wrong and i m open to discussion

Hello,

We are grateful for your constructive suggestions, we must think about Pinnacle opening odds, it's a great idea.
We are very open to these kinda discussions and suggestions.

About H2H:
This is the point where we certainly do not agree since there is a 3 points system, it is often best option to give 3 points to each other than play it as a draw ... This is  3 points mathematically instead of 2 points if they would play 2 draws, this is applied to some team pairs and for this, you don't need thousands of data against each other, the numbers never lies :)

Of course, this is not true for all team pairs, but its another advantage for bettors, as long as they know about this ...

ODDS4STATS

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ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 24, 2017, 01:26:25 PM »
Same for me. Good purpose, but when you want to exploit markets it cannot be open markets but small groups who take advantage of it.
You sell this service, but its ordinary "tipster" service which cannot be give value to the costumers. Ok, you can advertise your product by betting on Liverpool you will get 166% ROI!!! Every smart trader knows its bullshit
Im sorry mayby your goals were honest. But u have to ask yourself would you buy that service your own?I wouldnt  bash it down 100% . You can develop your databases better and mayby you will be good competirior to the Betradar or Betgenius

Hello,

Thanks for your comment.
We're glad you see that our goals are good with this service. We want to give an extra to the bettors by using the data and to make them use it well. The ODDS4STATS is a great help, which helps a lot to see clearly between leagues and teams. It's worth to say over and over again that misunderstood data can easily overwhelm inexperienced users and it takes the time to see data sets correctly. What we are delivering is a unique product, but we have to deal wisely with it, it's not a question, we help you in this as well!

The Liverpool is a great example, and as we've said before, high payouts are not sustainable in the long run and to bet against a team it can be a strategy as well.... And do not forget that in the marketing point of view the big teams and big payouts are the best advertising.

Thanks for mentioning with Betradar on the same page, but they are a big company with a big advantage :)


ODDS4STATS

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ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 24, 2017, 01:06:54 PM »
Agree with Malteja here.To apply a technical analysys you have to have a very big sample size and  obviously find a subset of games in a niche league(don t expect to beat he market in EPL or LA liga with this :D ;D)WHERE THE MARKET NOT THE BOOKIES is making mistakes,because if you take the closing odds they are shaped by the market sentiment exclusively.  Anyway for me my conclusion is -i have this information for free in  footballdata and i use it on a regular basis,however your service is more graphic and would save me same times a lot of work.i would buy it for 15-20 and if you complete the bookmakers filter.If you add Openers to the database then we enter in another game and suddenly your 49 is a bargain...

Hello,

Thanks for your thoughts.
That's right, we are looking for a mistake on bookmakers side by comparing the data for short and long term and we think that for reasons that you have mentioned (squad and coaches) it is not really worth filtering for more than 5-6 years, but there are exceptions such as H2H, in this case, it is worth to filter for longer period. Or another example if a strategy shows the same results over the 5 years it only strengthens the hypothesis. But it's important to know that 5 years is the time to look at, see the UEFA coefficient.

We are sure if you create analysis there is no other place where you can do it in such a depth, this is the gap what ODDS4STATS wanted to fill.
In your second post, you are saying that the opening odds would be good as well, then the database would be valuable for you. Obviously, this is your own strategy and part of your thoughts, but please specify why do you think this is necessary, maybe we can help (other users might be interested too).

You are right, it's not necessarily the EPL or La Liga has to be "beaten". There are lots of second and third leagues where there is a serious gap on the shield, it's better to look there.


ODDS4STATS

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ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 23, 2017, 03:58:07 PM »
from the videos i saw i think its quite expensive for what it offers, need more work (more filters to play with).

I have scrapped from oddsportal and made a similar tool presented on one of those videos, i found out that for instance if you layed Braga (portuguese league) for the past 5 seasons (not counting the present one but i'm sure this season it would be profitable) you would get a nice profit (at least 20 units). There are definitely nice steady trends on the market, teams that the market/traders overrate a little bit.

Hi Harmonica,

Thanks for the thoughts!

Yes, we agree, still a lot of work to do, but we would like to point out that data analysis, strategy creation, and the year-to-year comparison of the database mean increasing knowledge for each user who uses the data year after year.
Because if we got data we got everything  :)

On the other hand, we congratulate you on finding your own strategy out of data analysis, indeed this is a great attitude, you will certainly learn a lot from it, you will learn even more when you analyzed 10 or 100 teams and you will see its characteristic's.

The mentioned Portugal League has ended, so let us give you an analysis of the season:

Highest payout at home in the current season: Portugal Primeira Liga

1. Maritimo Funchal 170,18% payout

2. CD Feirense 152,76% payout

3. Vitoria de Setubal 143,06% payout

The worst is LCD Nacional with only 29,41% payout. They have been relegated...

We recommend that you check the same teams for 3 and 5 years because such a high payout can’t be sustained in the long run!

Highest payout at away in the current season: Portugal Primeira Liga

1. Belenenses 186,00% payout


2. Vitoria Guimares 169,47% payout

3. CD Feirense 166,88% % payout


The worst is CD Tondela 18,59% payout.

We suggest that in this case as well to check the last 3 and 5 seasons.

The Primeira matches at home:

ROI at odds range 1.01-2.69 at home in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 205 so it’s the 66,99% of the games.
The payout is 100,74%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 898 so it’s the 64,28% of the games.
The payout is 100,63%

ROI at odds range 2.70-4.99 at home in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 57 so it’s the 18,62% of the games.
The payout is 98,88%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 296 so it’s the 21,18% of the games.
The payout is 98,45%

ROI at odds range 5.00-UP at home in the current season:

A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 44 so it’s the 14,37% of the games.
The payout is 93,07%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 296 so it’s the 21,18% of the games.
The payout is 98,45%

The conclusion is: The bookmakers calculating the Portugal Liga odds correctly.


The Primeira matches away:

ROI at odds range 1.01-2.69 away in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 72 so it’s the 23,52% of the games.
The payout is 96,26%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 380 so it’s the 27,39% of the games.
The payout is 96,92%

ROI at odds range 2.70-4.99 away in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 150 so it’s the 49,01% of the games.
The payout is 109,11%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 617 so it’s the 44,16% of the games.
The payout is 96,94%

ROI at odds range 5.00-UP away in the current season:

A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 84 so it’s the 27,45% of the games.
The payout is 46,87%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 400 so it’s the 28,36% of the games.
The payout is 98,45%


The Conclusion is: The results and the trend show that there is no significant difference between home and away teams if all matches are taken into account. ODDS4STATS does not propose to filter Portuguese Primeira League by odds.
But in any case, it is worth keeping in mind that some teams are able to make profits on the home field every year. Will it be so in 2017-18? Nothing can be guaranteed, but numbers provide great help.
Check out ODDS4STATS :)


ODDS4STATS

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