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Messages - Shawn2k

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1
BetInAsia / Re: About BetInAsia
« on: March 25, 2019, 01:52:13 PM »
Opened an account with BetInAsia through the Arbusers-promotion.

Today requested my first withdrawal with email and got the response that I have to do the KYC first.
Was prepared that this will take 2 or 3 days and sent passport and utility bill immediately.
Verification took 3 (!!!) minutes and after confirming my skrill they sent the money (5 figures).
The whole process took under 20 minutes, that's what I call lightening fast!

As a customer for about a month I can only say the best about them until now.

I have the same experience so far. Top customerservice (This is not the case of all their competitors).

Keep it up BetinAsia!

2
Have you used cashouts in a profitiable way?

"We assure you that this decision has only been taken after careful consideration." -> Thank God.... ::)

3
Neteller / Re: Bank Withdrawals - Currencies
« on: March 15, 2019, 05:28:41 PM »
Yepp, but when you got a Neteller account in something else then EURO, this will cost - Neteller will convert the money from XXX to EURO and take 3% +\- in fees.

I mean, not giving a sound about this in advance..... it's like stealing money - Don't see the difference.
Oh really? Im sorry that I didnt understand this at first. So you got lets say USD account and before sending to the bank they want to convert the money to eur and steal 3%? wtf :D

Here's what it says:
NOTICE:
Local currency bank withdrawals to your country of registration are no longer supported. You can register and withdraw funds to a bank account denominated in EUR.

When my currency is not EURO, the message above means that I can't get my money without converting them at least once, probably twice - Which practically means my money at Neteller and all bookies has dropped like 4-5% in value today.

..So I feel a warning would have been fair play - Or am I to demanding?   ???

4
Neteller / Re: Bank Withdrawals - Currencies
« on: March 15, 2019, 01:40:32 PM »
Yepp, but when you got a Neteller account in something else then EURO, this will cost - Neteller will convert the money from XXX to EURO and take 3% +\- in fees.

I mean, not giving a sound about this in advance..... it's like stealing money - Don't see the difference.

5
Neteller / Re: Bank Withdrawals - Currencies
« on: March 15, 2019, 01:10:27 PM »
I'm not to afraid of the costs in my bank - They are pretty low. Netellers costs on the contrary, they are not so funny to pay. Even with high VIP you still pay almost 3%.

Anyway, I can't understand why I did not get a warning about this. It's not a nice way to treat customers. It's greed, just pure greed.


6
Neteller / Re: Bank Withdrawals - Currencies
« on: March 15, 2019, 12:25:29 PM »
How do I withdraw from Neteller to Transferwise? (Probably a newbie question, but have never used anything else then directly transfers to my bank).

Did anyone get a warning about this change?

7
Neteller / Bank Withdrawals - Currencies
« on: March 15, 2019, 10:14:43 AM »
Hi,

Neteller does not support bank withdrawals to local currencies anymore? Only EURO? This will result in a massive FX fee income for Neteller.

Any other good solutions \ ways to don't convert money and pay 3% +\-....?

8
Value betting talk / Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 11, 2019, 02:02:12 PM »
Then we agree Wolfie, but I think "Chance of Loss at End" is correct, it moves logically at least.

9
Value betting talk / Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 11, 2019, 01:45:35 PM »
It's not that. Just try 10K bets with avg odds 2,00 vs avg odds 10,00 - And you'll probably see what I mean. Use the same ROI. It's completely different results.

Average ending bankroll would over large samples be exactly the same no mather what your avg. odds are - But with this calc it gives less avg. bankroll the higher odds you use (With same winrate\roi). And not just less, big difference. And yes, I've done it many times.

Examples of Avg Ending Bankroll (5% roi, flat stakes, 10k bets);
Avg Odds 5,00: Bankroll increase with 123 Units
Avg Odds 2,00: Bankroll increase with 500 Units
Avg Odds 10,00: Bankroll increase with 55 Units

..... The only line I think is correct at that calc is "Chance of Loss at End", which is the one I wanted, but it would have been great if the others worked as well..

10
Value betting talk / Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 11, 2019, 01:04:00 PM »
Seems like there is a small error in the calc - Or am I the error?

If I use average odds 5,00 compared to 2,00, with the same ROI, bankroll and stacksizes, we get very big differences in "Median End Bankroll", and also "Avg End Bankroll". Makes no sense to me.

Yes, it will have a lot bigger variance, but the end result at average will be the same. (If we bet only at odds 10,50 when 10,00 is the true odds compared to 2,10 with true odds 2,00). 5% EV is 5% EV.

..But seems like "Chance of Loss at End" works, which was the one I was looking for, so still very thankful  :)

11
Value betting talk / Re: Breakeven after 1000 valuebets
« on: March 11, 2019, 10:11:55 AM »
Hi guys, if you see in the other thread I started you can find a tool helping you understand chances of actually not winning at in example 1000 bets, even with good +EV\ROI. It's approx 7% chance of being down after 1000 bets with odds 2,0 and EV +5%. This is something to think about.

Important factors:
* Higher odds -> Varaiance increasing
* Lower EV -> Variance increasing

It's hard to be certain of what kind of EV we got. I think that's one of the main issues. It takes time and money to find out...

12
Value betting talk / Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 11, 2019, 08:19:33 AM »
Maybe this will help sportsbettingcalcs.com/betting-tools#bet_simulator

This is EXACTLY what I'm looking for! Perfect. Very thankful :)

13
Value betting talk / Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 08, 2019, 01:26:48 PM »
Anyone?

What I'm looking for is a tool that can tell things like this;

* Chance of being down after 3000 bets with average odds 3,25 & 3% edge\EV.
* Chance of being down after 1000 bets with average odds 2,52 & 5% edge\EV.

Yes, can do some work myself, but would have been really great if anyone had some info!

14
Value betting talk / Re: Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 05, 2019, 11:59:58 AM »
You'll need the odds and probabilities also, not just EV.

Also worth considering the effects of bankroll growth.

Yes, but could use average odds - Probability should then be: (1 / Avg. odds) * EV.

Anyway... that's if I do it myself, I'm looking for any kind of tool just giving me the chance to write 2-3 numbers down, then it fix the rest..  :)

15
Value betting talk / Tool for EV \ Law of big numbers
« on: March 05, 2019, 09:44:29 AM »
Hi,

Does anyone know about an easy tool to calculate X bets with Y value? I'm talking about the well known theory "Law of big numbers".

If we have 5% EV at 1000 bets (This is just an example), I want to see chances for the different results. Guess this also is interesting for others than me. This is to see how variance can play a big role short term, while we obviously will meet EV at some point.

Could make something in Excel, but saving time would be great!

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