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Messages - mita8888

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Value betting talk / Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« on: December 08, 2019, 03:30:53 AM »
i dont remember the exact time before match but i am sure its more than 4 hr before kick off
if the odds is shift extreme before kickoff, i can understand.

the most strange is the price on pinny drop, then in 30 minutes rise up breaking the previous price before drop

if the price only rise up from a stable price, it looks like a normal move. for me if the price go down, then valuebet scanner popping up opportunity then suddenly the price rise up extremely, this looks like a trap for me (in forex like the big boys doing stop loss hunting)

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Value betting talk / Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« on: December 06, 2019, 02:13:05 PM »
when i place a value bet (especially a big edge recorded from my scanner), i often check oddsportal to compare the odds.
I also see something strange, i cannot post image so i will try to write down the odds history

23.44 = 1.90 (opening)
23:46 = 1.91
06:03 = 1.97
07:29 = 1.95
09:01 = 1.84
09:07 = 1.77 <- value bet occur from my scanner, I place bet on soft side
09:34 = 1.79
09:40 = 1.95
10:01 = 2.04
10:12 = 2.07 <- its far above my placed odds.

I dont remember the exact time before match start, but i am sure its more than 2-3 hours before kick-off
I often see this kind of odds in pinnacle, my bet suddenly become a negative EV if compared to pinnacle

Could somebody explain whats happening?its possible if the soft one making this trap? when they push down the pinnacle odds, all scanner will popping up a value bet, then we as a regular value bettor will happily place a bet on the soft side.
(they can do this and making profit if the match is fixed, or they know something others dont know) right?

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Value betting talk / Re: LIVE match value betting
« on: November 26, 2019, 04:21:34 PM »
thank you for your valuable information
may i know how did you compare live odds between sharp and your locals? if you are not using software, do you compare manually side by side per game?

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Value betting talk / Re: LIVE match value betting
« on: November 25, 2019, 07:05:06 PM »
If there is big drop of odds starting usually from 1st minute of the match (can be later too) and there is no reason for it (any shots on target etc) we could say something strange is happening ..  For example. Match start with odds 1.9 on over 2.5 after 15 minutes there is odd 1.6 but any shots on target any shots on target, so no reason why odds dropping on over.. This indicate a lot of money placed on over 2.5 ..  In this case local bookmakers dont getting stakes on that event like asian bookmakers so they dont have reason to short odds and after 15 minutes you can find much bigger odds at local bookmaker compare to 1.6 at asian bookmaker

So the match are mote likely to going over, right?

MAy i know which softs are you betting on? I just ever try bet365 but only 1 day betburger subscription on weekend

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Value betting talk / Re: LIVE match value betting
« on: November 25, 2019, 05:50:44 PM »
Yes go live its more interesting like pre-match.
You must learn to recognize type of drops at live betting.
1. standarnd drop based on statistics or something happening in match (danger free kick, player injured and no more possibility to substitute etc)
2. match fixing drop and here you need to stake as much as possible .. these bets are really big valuebets after few minutes if you catch them very fast. For example you catch odds 1.8 and later after 10 minutes there is odd 1.5 or lower ..

Not every day can be profitable. I had days where i lost 2000 eur, but overally i have very high ROI 20% and flat ROI 8%  (this because i have bigger stakes on match fixing drops). Iam using local bookmakers.

Could you explain more about match fixing drops?

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Value betting talk / Re: Value Bets Scanner
« on: November 25, 2019, 05:58:58 AM »
out of curosity why do you use the arbs instread of value bets?

Because in theory every arb is a value bet, since one odd shouldn't be too high. Plus I believe I can gather much more data this way and then filter out my own value bets and specific markets.
I think you are spot on.

Most value betting software apply very overall simple value assumptions, and eventually this will be relayed to bots. So the sport bettor's answer in this competition is to apply some sophisticated filtering. Also, betting on a small value bet which would have been a negative arb, combined with the constant underlying uncertainty of who is sharp and who isn't, may in theory lead to long term negative profits. Better to focus on high value, positive arbs.

Well I use only positive arbs of at least 0.50% and I am gathering data to figure out who is sharp and who is not in every market I bet on long term. I was thinking of increasing my minimum % to something like 1% but I think it's more wise to let my upcoming data show if it's the right move or not, unless some more experienced guys tried that already and failed long term. Also keep in mind that I bet on bet365 vs pinnacle, betfair, matchbook, sbobet, betdaq, smarkets, 188bet, dafabet (for now) considering that bet365 will be the soft in most markets.

How much index value are you using right now?

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Value betting talk / LIVE match value betting
« on: November 25, 2019, 05:56:02 AM »
Hello.. currently i am value betting using rebel, my stats are as follows:

Total bets: 3753
TO: $107.496

My best yield is near 10% at one moment
Today’s yield is about 5%, reaching down to my theoretical Ev 3.9% (ev vs place bet, not pinnacle closing)

I may post this in detail if anybody interested

Value betting get me more interesting day by day. So i thought i want to expand and prepare larger bankroll to bet

I need an opinion about LIVE match value betting, since i still have no data,
how much expected bet per week? I can bet 1000+ per month prematch
Does live match value bet yield higher result? (We beat the live odds, there is no pinnacle closing line, the line we bet at that moment is the closing line at that time)

I also have a project to do valuebet on SBO. Only get 100-200bet at the moment
Luckily i live in asia, so i can bet on SBO via agent that give me fix maxbet per match, each agent is different , but maxbet is fix (ex:$200 per match)

Thanks for any kind of suggestion or idea

Ps: my bankroll is about $8000

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Value betting talk / Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« on: November 25, 2019, 02:32:26 AM »
What is the perfect timing to place a bet ?

It is an essential topic and it has been discussed before in this forum and probably will be again.

It has no finite answer. A market closer to match start has higher liquidity and odds are closer to the reality, the true odds. A market long before match start has more inaccurate odds, but that also leads to the possibility for better bargains, since overvalued odds have not been corrected yet. So it really is a kind of paradox. I took my own data for offline betting since start 2017:

Time before match start     ROI (number of bets)
Above 48 hours
9.51% (809)
24-48 hours
16.95% (760)
12-24 hours
3.57% (767)
6-12hours
4.88% (822)
2-6 hours
3.37% (1157)
1-2 hours
4.37% (383)
0-1 hours
12.97% (476)

So it seems that stats are best for betting more than 24 hours to match start and below 1 hour.

These are my thoughts for the type of betting I do at the bookmakers I use:

The high ROI when betting more than 24 hours before, is due to those very overvalued opening odds that wouldn't survive long closer to game start. Many sharps only enter the markets past the 24 hour mark and much value betting software operates on games up to 24 hours to game start, so that's typically where the overvalued odds will get on the move.

24-1 hours is a period of speculation with lots of opinions.

The high ROI very close to game start, is based upon the high volume of factual game changing information during this period, courtsider observations, lineups, field condition, etc. which causes abrupt odds changes and good value opportunities for those who act quickly.

It would be nice to compare this with other users' stats, so please comment, discuss and criticize based on your own experience and theories.

thank you for this data. very appreciate

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