Valuebets

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mtysocks
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mtysocks

Valuebets
« on: May 08, 2013, 05:37:14 PM »

Hi all. I have recently become very interested in valuebets, and just wanted to see what other members think and get some feedback from smarter people than me.

Value betting (as I understand) is when you back an outcome for higher odds than the true chance of that event happening, e.g. backing heads in a coin flip at 2.10 etc.

A few arbing services (i.e. betonvalue, surebet.com, oddsportal) etc. show a section called Valuebets. As I understand it they, take the average of all odds provided, and calculate the bookie overround/margin, to get the percentage chance for each outcome (to 100% book) and highlight odds which are higher in the betting, so it becomes value.

Example: Home 1.40 (71.43%), Draw 3.75 (26.67%), Away 5.00 (20%).
In this example there is an overround of 18.1%.

According to Bet On Value's calculation of working it out, the "true" figures should be:
Home 1.65 (60.47%), Draw 4.43 (22.58%), Away 5.91 (16.93%)

So if I had a filter, where I backed all selections that were say a minimum of 10% better in price: i.e. Home Win was at 1.72 or better...then in the long run I "should" make a profit. I was planning on making lots and lots of little bets on all valuebets that were shown. So if throughout the day 200 valuebets were shown, then I would place bets on all 200 as long as the odds were better. The one other thing I would check would be to see if at least 10 bookmakers had priced up that event so that the average used to calculate the base percentages were fairly accurate.

I hope the above makes sense. Any thoughts would be welcome.
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anormal1992
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Re: Valuebets
« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2013, 06:08:04 PM »

i think you are correct on everything....But i think limits at bookmakers would come fast even in low stakes.......because you will always hit their soft lines. Saying this arbing would be more profitable. I doubt you can find valuebets at pinnacle....Marathon limits may come after the first bet..... And i think marathon is the main book for valuebets. It needs too much patience because even 1 month resulst wouldnt give you a silid answer about valuebets.
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mtysocks
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Re: Valuebets
« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2013, 06:24:44 PM »

I was thinking of using a few bookmakers that dont restrict (if its successful in the long run), i.e. betfair, betdaq, pinnacle and SBObet. I had a quick look on BetonValue and there are quite a few bets (121 to be precise) at the moment that are for events taking place today. If I only bet on those that offer 10% or better odds, I think there are roughly 50 bets that I could bet on. The aim would be to have a high betting bank (in terms of points) so something like a 500 point bank (to be ultra cautious) at the start, and literally bet on anything and everything that is 10% or better. This large bank would also cover long losing runs and variance.

Ive thought about the large number of bets, and I can get a bot that will do all the work but will only work with Betfair or Betdaq. This brings its own question as they charge 5% commission on winning bets, in which case should I aim for 10% or 15% value bets?

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SurebetMonitor
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Re: Valuebets
« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2013, 06:30:16 PM »

Interesting talk and interesting remarks. We have been addressing this subject quite intensely and the results of our work one will be able to see and test soon, when we launch the "sharpbets pro" product...

What one can say openely though... to my experience, and I am certain to the experience of many value hunters some issues are striking and need to be addressed properly, before one decides to come into this quite demanding field.

- staking and selection of bets - many people would agree that valuebetting may lead to ups and downs, the bigger, the less bets you place. Therefore it is absolutely essential to correctly adjust stakes for every valuebet. Also, our tests show that apparently not all of the valuebets shown in the services you listed are really worth playing, nor their hold any true value. The basic rule, that might prevent you from damage and make your efforts sort of worth is sticking to low to moderate stakes (in relation to your total budget) and generally staking more, the more the bet is overvalued, and the more probable it is to win.

- choosing proper bookmakers - one might be shocked, but it is possible to extract value out of Pinnacle Sports, though it is much more difficult than from e.g. 188bet and extracting value from 188bet is much more difficult than from Tobet and this in turn is more complicated than from marathonbet. Anyway, where the value truly lies is I guess most advanced knowledge at this field (apart from the fact, that everyone knows there are tons of it at marathonbet). One might be surprised, but one can find some value also at Pinnacle Sports, especially at early, low-budget, and not-properly adjusted secondary markets or props.

« Last Edit: May 08, 2013, 06:45:59 PM by SurebetMonitor » Logged

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mtysocks
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mtysocks

Re: Valuebets
« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2013, 06:39:48 PM »


and generally staking more, the more the bet is overvalued, and the more probable it is to win.


Hi Surebet

Thank you for the comments. It is actually your Bet Sniper software that sort of gave me the idea. I know I have to wait for that product to become available, but patience when it comes to trying out new things is a thing that I lack!!

Please could you explain what you mean by the above bit of your quote. Are you saying that I should bet more on something that is slightly less value (i.e. 5% value) than a longshot that is 40% value? Is this due to the fav-longshot bias? Also, I always read that you should put more on if there is more value (i.e. Kelly Staking)..but I have never tried it and was only thinking of level stakes.

Also, in your experience, what are the sort of best odds range or max. odds range I should concentrate on based on your experience? Any help is appreciated.
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Porthugz
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Re: Valuebets
« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2013, 07:05:07 AM »

Example: Home 1.40 (71.43%), Draw 3.75 (26.67%), Away 5.00 (20%).
In this example there is an overround of 18.1%.

According to Bet On Value's calculation of working it out, the "true" figures should be:
Home 1.65 (60.47%), Draw 4.43 (22.58%), Away 5.91 (16.93%)

Sorry for digging up this old topic but I think there is something that hasn't been talked about here.

The mathematical approach to this is absolutely correct, you apply the overlay on each odds to find what is the "true odds".

However, I believe that bookies apply the biggest part of their overlay on the favorite most of the time. Don't you agree?

Example: Overlay on Home is 30%, on Draw 15% and on Away 7%

If I'm not making any sense let me know.

Now the million dollar question is: Is there a way to figure the overlay on each selection?
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pescu23
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Re: Valuebets
« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2013, 12:04:50 PM »

Valuebets are a nice profitable way to hit softbookmarker where you are limited.

In my opinion, the most profitables bookies to do this are Interwetten, bwin and ladbrokes. You have just to find value and it is easy just comparing with sharps odds. You can do this with any alert service ( including betsOnFire  :P )

For example if I have this:
-2,5 @ 1,27 bet365
-2,5 @ 1,53 bwin

I pick the bwin line because is overpayed, we all know that bet365 traders are better than bwin, so I trust them.

This are my three values in bwin from yesterday.



Miami Heat @ 1.50 !!! oh my Bwin!
« Last Edit: November 28, 2013, 12:06:43 PM by pescu23 » Logged

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