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Surebet with AH+1.25

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tatankov
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Surebet with AH+1.25

Tue Aug 05, 2014 11:52 pm

Hi,

I have a nice odd for a AH +1.25 on Pinnacle.
How can I "close" this surebet, besides laying this AH on Betfair?
ppintaluba
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:00 am

AH -1.25 on other book
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cristi13
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:49 am

or
AH1 -1.25 / EHX(0:1) / EH2(+1)
AH1 -1.25 / EH2(+1) / EH2(+2)
AH1 -1.25 / EHX(0:1) / 2 DNB
and many others
tatankov
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:33 am

ppintaluba wrote: AH -1.25 on other book
I am sorry, but that is not all that simple. I have done a simulation using excel, and couldn't find a way to balance the net profit regardless the outcome.

Do you have any Surebet calculator, where I can find the right amout to be on the 2nd leg?

I have for now AH+1.25 with 1.877 .
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:34 am

cristi13 wrote: or
AH1 -1.25 / EHX(0:1) / EH2(+1)
AH1 -1.25 / EH2(+1) / EH2(+2)
AH1 -1.25 / EHX(0:1) / 2 DNB
and many others
I need markets with low spread, usually I tend to avoid european handicaps.
By the way, do you use any surebet tool to assist you doing these calculus?
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:58 am

Without knowing the event/stakes it's meaningless the ask this.
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:42 am

tat wrote:
ppintaluba wrote: AH -1.25 on other book
I am sorry, but that is not all that simple. I have done a simulation using excel, and couldn't find a way to balance the net profit regardless the outcome.

Do you have any Surebet calculator, where I can find the right amout to be on the 2nd leg?

I have for now AH+1.25 with 1.877 .
It is that simple, but of course it depends on the odds. If you find AH -1.25 with at 2.25 it's an arb. Just an example.
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tatankov
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:34 pm

ppintaluba wrote:
tat wrote:
ppintaluba wrote: AH -1.25 on other book
I am sorry, but that is not all that simple. I have done a simulation using excel, and couldn't find a way to balance the net profit regardless the outcome.

Do you have any Surebet calculator, where I can find the right amout to be on the 2nd leg?

I have for now AH+1.25 with 1.877 .
It is that simple, but of course it depends on the odds. If you find AH -1.25 with at 2.25 it's an arb. Just an example.
Yes, it's an arb, but it's unbalanced, you don't get the same profit, regardless of the outcome.

E.g.
Stake1=1000€
AH +1.25 @1.877

Stake2= ?
AH -1.25 @2.25

You can't find a value for stake2, where you get the same profit on all the outcomes. At least I can't.
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:36 pm

834?
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tatankov
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:52 pm

ppintaluba wrote: 834?
Not really, betting 834€, I don't get the same profit, as you can see on this table.
Maybe it's just not possible to make a balanced surebet using AH+1.25

Image
Last edited by tatankov on Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:20 pm

Just bet the draw on the European handicap as well. It's a small bet so it doesn't really matter if you don't get the best price.
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:12 pm

tat wrote:
ppintaluba wrote: 834?
Not really, betting 834€, I don't get the same profit, as you can see on this table.
Maybe it's just not possible to make a balanced surebet using AH+1.25

Image
Your table is wrong. In my example odds were 2.25 so last row is also a 21 profit. Profit is half when half stake is returned. As qbet said, you can place a third bet to cover this case.
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ppintaluba
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:25 pm

Yesterday I answered over the iphone and did not have the time to explain.
This could be what you wanted. Of course it depends on the odds you get for +1.25 and for the draw (-1)
Attachments
ah.png
Last edited by ppintaluba on Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Surebet with AH+1.25

Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:23 am

Please do not think for advertising, but in BetLinker you can easy calculate any option. Calculator is free and contains more than 500 combinations. As in your case, there are 5 different ways with outcome AH1(1.25) and 14 with AH1(-1.25) plus one universal two-outcome combination. As mentioned in this topic, AH1 always can be complemented by AH2 with opposite value. For example, AH1(-0.5) - AH2(0.5); AH1(2.25) - AH2(-2.25).
Attachments
13.08.2014 Shot0033.png
13.08.2014 Shot0032.png
Last edited by eltrien on Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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