BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

Trading question

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
Arboman
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: -2
Posts: 48
Joined: Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:45 pm

Trading question

Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:16 pm

Ok here is my logic, if a price is higher than the other bookies I use, and higher than the exchanges, the market should react by taking it and dragging it down. So because the price is good people come in and bet on it until it falls.
Now I often see prices falling slowly and by the time I am ready to react one bookmaker changes their odds. This is how I miss opportunities... so I took a small arb thinking it has to go down in the next 30 min..... Here is the million dollar question , why doesn't it fall? In fact it even rose by a few points and now I can either exit at a small loss or wait more....
Thordin
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 30
Posts: 773
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:57 am

Re: Trading question

Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:30 pm

if only we could predict the future...
dealer wins
Totally Pro
Totally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally ProTotally Pro
Karma: 43
Posts: 966
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:16 pm

Re: Trading question

Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:42 pm

Arboman wrote: Ok here is my logic, if a price is higher than the other bookies I use, and higher than the exchanges, the market should react by taking it and dragging it down. So because the price is good people come in and bet on it until it falls.
Now I often see prices falling slowly and by the time I am ready to react one bookmaker changes their odds. This is how I miss opportunities... so I took a small arb thinking it has to go down in the next 30 min..... Here is the million dollar question , why doesn't it fall? In fact it even rose by a few points and now I can either exit at a small loss or wait more....
The market reacts to many things.  Team news, Injuries, weather conditions etc etc

Big money bets by big players move lines!

On big events I dont think the markets are bothered at all if a soft book prices up badly and creates and arb. Until the soft book pulls their odds and the market will soak up our arb bet layoffs all day long if necessary without moving 1 pip!!
Never trust a goose!!!

Return to “Arbing, matched betting and trading talk”