Arbusers

yorkjoss wrote: extremely impressive! can I ask, do you pay PC?

I do and will probably end up paying 40% in a month or two.I'm working on branching out to Matchbook and Pinnaclesports but the best thing about Betfair is even if i end up paying 40%,i can earn more on Betfair than on Matchbook and Pinnacle.

@Arbusers - I'll answer the questions you posted after 30 minutes since it'll probably be a big post.

M@chibist wrote: As i am trader i can give few thoughts...
Pretty much agree with everything what AUavi and Bubbles said. It is hard hard work but it can be done.
Applications make it easier especially if you are trading inplay.
On the top of everything which is said before i think that psychology is often underestimated. People looking for winning strategies but not developing trading mind.
If you cant control your emotions or taking loses you will never succeed.
For me tennis is number one, movement after every points, almost whole year...lot of people jump on horses and football, really cant understand why not look to other sports.
You need to find out where you can beat all bots and big players. I am not saying that it is easy, it is damn hard and getting harder each day....but often trader it is its biggest enemy.
I have never arbed before but i am considering that as an option and trying to learn new things. I think that those who want will find a way and places like this can give you ideas and opportunities.

Best regards

Agree. I deliberately decided not to embark upon horse trading, primarily for the reasoned mentioned by arbusers (my heart beats) and second since i cannot conceive what governs horse racing. I am doing the mainstream sports for a 5digit sum/month however i find that lack of liquidity will roof my profits to nowhere more than those amounts. What matters most in trading is to UNDERSTAND, and then act. Thats why my only advice to potential newbies in trading is to start by looking one only sport. Then start adding more and then you will jump to Forex 

portman wrote: Agree. I deliberately decided not to embark upon horse trading, primarily for the reasoned mentioned by arbusers (my heart beats) and second since i cannot conceive what governs horse racing. I am doing the mainstream sports for a 5digit sum/month however i find that lack of liquidity will roof my profits to nowhere more than those amounts. What matters most in trading is to UNDERSTAND, and then act. Thats why my only advice to potential newbies in trading is to start by looking one only sport. Then start adding more and then you will jump to Forex 

I believe that there is a rather big number of people who hold a clear advantage against all the others.
1. Those who sit in front the horses and watch the actual event holding a lap top.
2. Those with real time TV. I mean real time. 0 secs delay.
3. I find it very difficult to believe that a number of races are clear. A lot of people have inside information about the condition of the horses that we (the plebiscite) don't have.

As for Forex, even though being successful in arbing and trading shows much, forex is another planet. This is because the vast majority of the market is controlled by bots and again...I believe the market is manipulated with unbelievable amount of (not even existing) amount of money.
You have 2 option left. Use a bot. Or stay 20 hours per day in front of the pc for years and years until you learn how bots react.

@AUAvi, take your time, and thank you in advance.

Arbusers wrote:

portman wrote: Agree. I deliberately decided not to embark upon horse trading, primarily for the reasoned mentioned by arbusers (my heart beats) and second since i cannot conceive what governs horse racing. I am doing the mainstream sports for a 5digit sum/month however i find that lack of liquidity will roof my profits to nowhere more than those amounts. What matters most in trading is to UNDERSTAND, and then act. Thats why my only advice to potential newbies in trading is to start by looking one only sport. Then start adding more and then you will jump to Forex 

I believe that there is a rather big number of people who hold a clear advantage against all the others.
1. Those who sit in front the horses and watch the actual event holding a lap top.
2. Those with real time TV. I mean real time. 0 secs delay.
3. I find it very difficult to believe that a number of races are clear. A lot of people have inside information about the condition of the horses that we (the plebiscite) don't have.

As for Forex, even though being successful in arbing and trading shows much, forex is another planet. This is because the vast majority of the market is controlled by bots and again...I believe the market is manipulated with unbelievable amount of (not even existing) amount of money.
You have 2 option left. Use a bot. Or stay 20 hours per day in front of the pc for years and years until you learn how bots react.

Agree. Trading involves countless working hours and of course bots. I am extremely doubtful when one says that he trades successfully without bots. Of course it may be the case but up to the extent of my knowledge and the limits of my fantasy it is not conceivable. I only trade pregame since i am in clear disadvantage to those who have more reliable source of information. However even in major sports, there are restrictions nowadays since a lot of people during the former years were trading from the field. In one Tennis major this year they barely allowed me to pass in an ipad...Not to mention laptop. I know cases that friends of mine were not permitted to enter with the laptop although they hold a ticket. Especially ATP/WTA is very strict in those issues since there are a number of incidents of clearly fixed matches during the former years. In any case trading is a highly demanding even though rewarding case. Kudos to the friend that does it so well.

Arbusers wrote: AUAvi, thanks for sharing these images and your thoughts with us.
Would you like to tell us something more about the way you operate? Do you use any bots or other services? Do you have any money management rules that you follow? Any martingale's or anything else you would like to share?

Before you go on, I must warn you that sooner or later you will be attacked by other members and your karma will slide down the cliff.

Hello,first up i'm sorry if my English is bad.It's 3rd on the list of my preferred languages so i probably won't be able to express myself too well.

I trade on 4 sports i.e Football,Cricket,Horse racing and Tennis.I started out with Football and Tennis and then branched out to Cricket and Horse racing once i thought i had mastered both those sports.I trade on 2 markets in Football i.e Match odds and Over/Under goal lines,2 markets on Cricket i.e Match odds and Innings runs,2 markets on Horse racing i.e Laying horses between a certain set of odds which i don't want to disclose and backing horses that i feel are good value to trade and 2 markets on Tennis i.e Match odds and Set scoreline(2-1 2-0 0-2 1-2 etc)

I use "Fairbot" a not so famous trading software for my activities since it's the only software that runs on my Linux system.I do have a good bank which took me over an year to build and the bank allows me to stay safe even if i end up with a big streak of losses which is very rare thankfully.I risk a maximum of 4% of my bank on any single trade on Football,Cricket and Tennis and about 2% on Horse racing.Though my average stake i risk is about half of the maximum.I don't follow any other mathematical systems.

It helps a lot that i was always interested in sports since a very young age.And i would like to believe that i'm quite good at analyzing situations in Football,Tennis and Cricket.Horse racing is different since i depend on quite a few websites for my trading activity and the profit i make on it is more due to my money management rather than my skill in the sport.If there is a sport that i'm not too confident about it's horse racing.

There was a period of 18 months when i used to spend 8-10 hours every day on my computer table,it was when i started out.I was making good money back then also i.e mid four figures and since i come from a place where the average salary is quite low(Low 4 figures),i kept working on my activity and kept improving.So,it's not easy to achieve profits via trading but with the right strategies,work and a decent bank you can make some good amount of money.

I believe that prerace horse racing is easily manipulated...
Inplay manipulation is much harder and can easily be spotted (tennis) and that is the time to enter...you can trade looking for value or market mechanism... resistance points after certain points.
Each way of trading requires months of work, learning about players (some of them have wonderful patterns) or starring at the ladder and watching money flow.
I took me 10 months to start making money (i was sleeping with tennis and waking up with tennis). It is like becoming an expert in any other field.
People with fast picture (courtsiding in tennis) will be always there but you can live with them.
In either case you need to know what is the reason behind market actions.
For me the biggest problem was psychology and last two months struggle with the results but mainly due to other personal things.
There is a reason why there is so much people who go boom and bust. Similar like punting. I would say 90% people just cant deal with it.

I know few successful  manual traders making good amounts. I am also from country with lower standard but in any case it is good money.

@AUAvi....brilliant results man...cricket, tennis and horses. RESPECT!

Best regards

my trading usually turns into regular gambling

AUAvi wrote: Yes,it was the monthly profit.

I like trading with my own money and i don't want to take the pressure of mentoring others.

Haha I understand. Well, if you ever change your mind about it, you know where to find me.
And btw, your English is fine  ...

Ok, because I like arbing and trading and I have a college degree in Maths I'm always looking into the possibility of trading patterns. 

I was wondering if any of you guys use the 'regular' trading patterns, like laying the draw in football and betting on a favorite after losing the first set in tennis...

To take it even one step further, I have also been looking at candlestick trading strategies. I believe this could also be a valid trading pattern in sports trading, however since I have only started with trading would be interested to hear your view on this (if any of the experienced traders would like to share)...

AuAvi, may I ask what you think about videos demonstrating strategies on the internet?
My opinion is that they are misleading, since they present only winning scenarios, leaving out the  loosing ones. I personally would like to see how they get back to at least scratch when the trade goes against you.
Thank you.

To take it even one step further, I have also been looking at candlestick trading strategies. I believe this could also be a valid trading pattern in sports trading, however since I have only started with trading would be interested to hear your view on this (if any of the experienced traders would like to share)...
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You will find plenty of stuff on technical analysis and trading at the two blogs of Jimmakos. There was also a site that linked ninjatrader with betfair in order to facilitate the application of various indicators. Later they moved to a web based application. Sadly, I can't recall the name of the site...
Finally, I believe that most of the trading software have some basic indicators.

@Max, the way I see it there will be pre-set strategies for longer trades like the ones described by UAavi where you select horses you want to trade and try to foresee in which direction their odds will move with time. And there is pure opportunistic trading for which, in opposition to the pre-set strategies, you don't need much of research in advance because it's your reaction to what happens live (whether its pre-race or not) in the market. I call it opportunistic trading because it may be every type of trade, not necessarily scalping. If you see an opportunity to “surf” a longer move you won't be taking profit after one tik, will you? Important thing is to let a trade go if it goes in your favour but kill it asap if it goes against you. Scalping in reverse if you like.

Answering your questions directly, pre-race I would trade opportunistically any horse if I see something that convince me it's worth a risk regardless of the type of race. In race I would focus on longer races, avoid sprints, consider jumps much riskier. Some people have successful strategies for trading in races but again those are strategies based on their studies, not an opportunistic trading. 

Irish races are more volatile 

And about resistance points, cause you mentioned them, they are resistance points only until resistance is broken. That's where many people lose money. Instead of escaping from a trade they wait because they want to believe  the odds to bounce back (sometimes they will) to the comfort of resistance points frame; time is passing, loosing trade's getting bigger with every tenth of a sec... So don't treat them religiously. The theory (and practice) is avoid loses and profits will take care of themselves.

M@chibist - Thanks man!

Tocko - That's how i started out as well.I'm sure if you put in some hard hours you can stop your trading from turning into gambling.

MaxShalamar - Thanks and i hope you reach such a level.I can't answer the question about scalping horses because i don't scalp.What i do is lay horses usually Favorites and a huge part of my profit from racing comes from this.

thag - Sure,i do know where to find you.
But,i'm afraid the chances of me mentoring are absolutely non existent.

I don't use any of the regular trading patterns.I simply enter a trade if i feel that i have value in the price that's being offered on Betfair.

whitesnake - I have seen a lot of demonstration videos and frankly i believe they only cover one side of the coin like you said.
It's either people making videos demonstrating how they make a profit(which only shows one side) or it's pro's demonstrating trading strategies to promote their softwares.Truth be told i don't think a person would be demonstrating his strategies publicly on the Internet via a video for free if he truly has a strategy that works consistently.

Do you know any bot that is able to put bets when the market opens?