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Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

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What will you vote in the Greek referendum?

Poll runs till Wed Jan 05, 2061 9:49 pm

YES
8
40%
NO
12
60%
 
Total votes: 20
sportoboy
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Wed Jul 08, 2015 1:20 am

Let's not fool ourselves. The referendum was just a last -crazy- shot for Tsipras to keep him in power. It had nothing to do with Europe.

He won against all odds and is now the only undisputed leader in Greece. In the -very likely now- Grexit scenario, he will announce national elections within 3 weeks on Monday, blaming the EU for the disaster and asking people to trust him in the new beginning of Greece with a national currency.

Having eliminated all political opponents, he will win the elections. It will be an unbelievable turnaround cause in a country that 75% wanted the euro as currency, he will succeed in establishing democratically a different currency. Tough times will follow though...
vinciguerra
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:30 am

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/07/08/2133806/lets-talk-about-the-1953-london-agreement-on-german-external-debts/

i liked this article.  it points out the obvious flaws between the much used argument that because Greece (among others) forgave Germany its debt 60+ years ago, Germany would now be somehow obliged to do the same as if the situation is in any way comparable. I think the article puts that argument to rest once and for all.
More importantly though, I like the concept of outcome-contingent debt: you make the debt dependant on how the Greece economy performs. Then everybody will have the same goals, unlike now: you create solidarity by financial incentive.  Anyway. probably won't happen, but a nice thought.
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:28 am

vinciguerra wrote: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/07/08/2133806/lets-talk-about-the-1953-london-agreement-on-german-external-debts/

i liked this article.  it points out the obvious flaws between the much used argument that because Greece (among others) forgave Germany its debt 60+ years ago, Germany would now be somehow obliged to do the same as if the situation is in any way comparable. I think the article puts that argument to rest once and for all.
More importantly though, I like the concept of outcome-contingent debt: you make the debt dependant on how the Greece economy performs. Then everybody will have the same goals, unlike now: you create solidarity by financial incentive.  Anyway. probably won't happen, but a nice thought.
Well Another opinion article that says nothing useful. I will just say one thing greece when asked for help had a debt of 130% of gdp and a 15.7% deficit  now it has 175%  of gdp and -3.5 (at 2014 after 6 years of austerity and with control at economic policy)  these are facts not opinions if can' t see that whatever the eu imf etc planned failed and that greece can't pay the debts that a % of them created by that catastrophic plans then well i don't know what to say
Don't speak for something you have no clue.
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arbusers
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Wed Jul 08, 2015 2:39 pm

There is a distortion of history and a dubious assumption in almost every paragraph of this article.
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:16 pm

This is how I see it. Greeks have, like many others, been living above their possibilities and the creditors have seen this as an opportunity to give them some money. A lot of money has probably been eaten by corruption so the weight falls on everyday worker. It happened in a lot of countries and the blame goes both ways.
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:40 pm

Arbusers wrote: There is a distortion of history and a dubious assumption in almost every paragraph of this article.
could you elaborate on this?
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:43 am

raizzak wrote: Well Another opinion article that says nothing useful. I will just say one thing greece when asked for help had a debt of 130% of gdp and a 15.7% deficit  now it has 175%  of gdp and -3.5 (at 2014 after 6 years of austerity and with control at economic policy)  these are facts not opinions if can' t see that whatever the eu imf etc planned failed and that greece can't pay the debts that a % of them created by that catastrophic plans then well i don't know what to say
Read the book:  Perkins John - "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" and you will see what IMF&Co really want for Greece people.
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arbusers
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:45 am

It will require  lot of time from me but will go for it.

''Even the hardiest Syntagma Square placard-bearer would have to admit ‘the institutions’ haven’t controlled Greece’s geopolitical destiny in the same way.''

What a joke. Until January the 25th, there were 2 EU commissars in each Greek ministry and that includes the ministry of defense as well. No decision was taken until the commissars sign it. If this is not a control of a country, then what is?

''One relevant point, we think, is that well before relief, the Allies had already ensured their debtor had undergone a somewhat thorough process of lustration.''

In Greece, no lustration was implemented simply because in every corruption scandal there is a German company engaged. A number of former ministers of the former ruling parties were listed in a payroll of Siemens. The CEO of the company in Greece, is now under German protection (not custody)  in Munchen. No permition was given to the Greek judges to have a word with him. There are similar payrolls for a number of other scandals, their height is 9, even 10 digits. When Germans are speaking about corruption, they must be looking at their mirror.

''the Luxembourg agreement, in which the FRG committed to paying the state of Israel a considerable sum in reparations to integrate Jewish refugees.''

Surprisingly, the author forgets the reparations for Greece, that was never paid. He also forgets the forced loan, when Germans occupied Athens and emptied the Greek banks. The author also forgets that the German unification of 1989 triggered these reparations payments that was to be paid when Germany unified. The Author clearly lacks of sources, or maybe he choses the sources that suit him best to build his case, no matter how unreliable they are.

''Savings deposits were converted at a 10 to 1 ratio into Deutsche Mark. Haircutting depositors is, naturally, a touchy subject in Greece today.''

There is a huge difference between ''converted'' and ''hair cut'' deposits. Converted deposits do not lose value. Hair cut deposits do.

''Half the debt Germany restructured in 1953 after all was Marshall Plan lending or post-war economic assistance.''

What a joke again. What an ignorance. The Marshall plan consisted of aid both in the form of grants and in the form of loans. Even though, it is not clear and no one could answer the question in which extend this plan was a loan, it is widely accepted that most of the German debt forgiven in 1953 was  resulted from the Treaty of Versailles after WW I which had not been paid in the 1930s. To my eyes, there are more easier ways to convince your readers that Germany is the holy state, than claiming that Germany always paid what it owes.

''The Marshall Plan had its own conditionality of course (though we tend to forget this now): it wouldn’t go to communists.''

The audience flagged this distortion also, and the author updated the article accordingly, even though he again ''forgets'' to mention that the Marshall plan was planed to go to every country of the east, including the USSR, and not only Yugoslavia.

''Above all, this was all predicated on the belief that the German economy couldn’t be kept down for long.''

I will comment on this silly comment with a video. Take a look at it, and then tell me that the German economy couldn't be kept down for long. This is Berlin 1945.

phpBB [video]


After 1:00, you see the well known Unter den Linden street. Today, there is a number of German banks branches in this street. Almost all of them have at least 1 Greek speaking employee who is there to welcome Greek depositors. Greek stupidity is to be blame as well, since they prefer to deposit their wealth to the killers of their country.

''One reason Greece could be generous was because the US had already been funding it through the Truman Doctrine''

Since when the Truman doctrine was funding Greece or any other country. That was a geopolitical derivative of Kenan's theory for the Soviet containment and not a debt relief plan. I can give a number of credible reasons why Greeks forgave German debt and these would include solidarity, (with no interest rate of course) and compassion to a devastated by its own demons nation. Above all, it might be a forgiveness to those who devastated the Continent and killed 12% of Greece's population. These are small letters and higher values not imaginable by the author of this article.

''Even Grexit, if that’s the path chosen, will have to involve debt restructuring and ongoing official credit in some form''

What a deliberate mistake again. A Grexit will mean a 100% write off the Greek debt.  Grexit would cause such a damage (for a short period of time) and a trauma in Greeks, that absolutely no-one would agree with payments to Germany. This is clearly stated by members of the Greek government and represents the national sentiment. A Grexit will be a divorce. A violent one and not an agreement above a lawyer's desk.
Last edited by arbusers on Sun Jul 12, 2015 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
raizzak
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:27 am

Arbusers wrote:
''Even Grexit, if that’s the path chosen, will have to involve debt restructuring and ongoing official credit in  mistake again. A Grexit will mean a 100% write off the Greek debt.  Grexit would cause such a damage (for a short period of time) and a trauma in Greeks, that absolutely no-one would agree with payments to Germany. This is clearly stated by members of the Greek government. A Grexit will be a divorce.
well that's not entirely true first of all debts to imf will  be paid  no matter what if greece want to borrow from the "markets" like every other country do, second the 100%writeoff i believe is a legal no no but can be restructured  one way by 95%  haircut and payments like in 50 years for example
Don't speak for something you have no clue.
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:40 am

All talking about a deal but BTCEUR rallying. Hmm, beats me. But i like it.
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arbusers
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:31 am

stevie wrote: Hmm, beats me. But i like it.
Tell us more.
stevie
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:54 am

Tough equation really. Left idealists and German FM will try to block they deal. Imo if BTCEUR will take another bullyish hit to 280-300 it will be decisive.
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Re: Vote YES or NO in the Greek referendum

Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:36 pm

Only time will tell here though.

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