January 16, 2017, 09:42:19 PM
News: If it is not in arbusers, it doesn't exist.

probabilities

Pages: [1]
« previous next »
Author Topic: probabilities  (Read 1059 times)
middler
Has some experience
**

Karma: 6
Posts: 117


View Profile
« on: December 21, 2015, 06:36:00 PM »

Hey guys,

I'm posting this here as it might be noobish not to know it.

I would like to compare the probability given to odds in 2-outcome vs 3-outcome events.

For example. I know that if an event has two possible results, i can calculate the probability of each one with the next formula (always using european odds): 1/odd*100=%

How would i calculate the probability of an outcome for an event with three possible outcomes?

Thanks in advance!

FORGET IT, I GOT IT, STUPID QUESTION :)
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 07:05:00 PM by middler » Logged

fairpunter
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -164
Posts: 334



View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2015, 08:36:36 AM »

If you mean arbitrage probabilities percent it is calculated with this formula : example 1x2 odds  1.70-4.33-6.50
100 - ( 100* (1/1,70 + 1/4,33 + 1/6,50) ) = 2,70
2,70% arb
Logged

middler
Has some experience
**

Karma: 6
Posts: 117


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2015, 10:38:29 AM »

thanks for your reply.

the question was stupid, the probability is always 1/odd. what got me confused for a moment was trying to compare odds from a 2-leg with a 3-leg.
For example, DNB vs moneyline, but i will just do it manually..

thanks anyways
Logged

qbet
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: 38
Posts: 382


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2015, 11:58:35 AM »

The implied probability isn't always 1/odds. For example this isn't the case for draw no bet or Asian handicaps.
What you are saying holds for bets that are all or nothing,  like 1x2.
Logged

middler
Has some experience
**

Karma: 6
Posts: 117


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2015, 12:36:57 PM »

you are absolutely right. what i wanted is a formula to compare these kinds of bets.

So let's say we have team a and team b.

Moneyline: 2-3-4
DNB: 1,95-1,85

Of course you can calculate the actual probability given to team b in both cases manually, taking into account the amount you get back if the result is a draw. However, i haven't found a way to calculate these kind of 3 way arb and save some time (it's not always moneyline vs dnb, it can be ah round number vs ah non-round number)

thanks for the answer anyways
Logged

fairpunter
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -164
Posts: 334



View Profile
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2015, 07:16:44 AM »

The implied probability isn't always 1/odds. For example this isn't the case for draw no bet or Asian handicaps.
What you are saying holds for bets that are all or nothing,  like 1x2.

If its not a problem can you please write formula for DNB or AH?
I can`t figure it out on my own for so long, and nothing can be found on net that is really useful.
If I am not mistaken, since there is 2 possible outcomes sometimes, for this calculations we will need 3 formulas ? :o

Can you write here any example ? any soccer match DNB or AH odds and say what you exactly want to know
Logged

middler
Has some experience
**

Karma: 6
Posts: 117


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2015, 09:20:18 AM »

So if we have a basketball game and we bet on moneyline (ot included), probabilities of each outcome are 1/ODD, so if 1/ODD A + 1/ODD B < 1 , you are getting extra value and therefore are able to place an arb.

For example, Team A - 2,1 and Team B - 2,1. 1/2,1 = 0,475. So if you have two outcomes, you get an arb of 5% (0,475 + 0,475 = 0,95).

On a 3-way moneyline bet, such as football, if we had Team A - 2,1, Draw - 2,1, Team B - 2,1, we would have 142,5% total probability, and therefore a negative arb of 42,5%.

But on other kinds of bets, such as AH, or DNB, the real probability (or implied probability as qbet said) is different. So if you have a football DNB with Team A - 2,1 and Team B ML - 2,1, you are not in the same situation as above.
If Team A +0 (DNB) - 2,1 and Team B (Moneyline) - 2,1, the probability of Team A winning is lower and better paid than Team B winning, although the odds are the same. Therefore, the previous formula does not apply to this case.

The same thing happens when you have AH (round number, .25 or .75), but then again it would be a different formula for each case. (I'm not going to write down each example, but you can get for instance AH1 -2, AH2 +1,5, AH2 +2,5).

Actually, the result that we get here is the probability for us, not the bookmaker, since it is the amount we get paid. So this is not even an accurate calculation, as it has to be taken into account the juice of each bookmaker in order to know the real probability that they assign to each possible outcome of an event, so the calculation is much harder than just this.

I am sorry for the bad explanation, but this is not an easy topic for me to explain, and I don't even have it that clear in my head.
I guess I will have to calculate manually depending on the type of bet.
Logged

middler
Has some experience
**

Karma: 6
Posts: 117


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2015, 09:31:03 AM »

I would love to have a formula and I would be happy to share it but it would be different for each case.. even for DNB, you can put them against ML or AH or even some cross market odds...
Logged

raizzak
Pro
*****

Karma: 30
Posts: 644


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2015, 12:34:35 PM »

If i understand this correct you need the formulas for the asian handicaps in relation with 1x2 odds?
Logged

Don't speak for something you have no clue.

middler
Has some experience
**

Karma: 6
Posts: 117


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2015, 12:54:43 PM »

No, thanks anyways, I guess I can calculate that.

I just wanted to know if I could find a common formula to calculate possible arbs in cases involving ML and DNB and AH, but I guess there is a different formula for every kind, so it is almost like doing it manually every time.

The aim was to save some time, but it will be hard.

Thanks anyways
Logged

middler
Has some experience
**

Karma: 6
Posts: 117


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2015, 02:37:58 PM »

For AH1(0), X, 2,

Team 1 win: AH1(0) * STAKE 1 = AMOUNT WON

X: STAKE 1 + ((AMOUNT WON-STAKE 1)/X) * X =AMOUNT WON

Team 2 win: 2 * STAKE 3 =AMOUNT WON

Where (AMOUNT WON - STAKE 1)/X = STAKE 2

On the other example, it is similar, just take into account that in that case the draw would be the stake on ah1(0) + the outcome of ah2(+0,5) winning bet. And team b winning would include 2 and ah2 (+0,5).

There are many possible combinations for these types of bets... I think that the best option is to calculate manually...
Logged

fairpunter
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -164
Posts: 334



View Profile
« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2015, 03:38:50 PM »

For AH1(0), X, 2,

Team 1 win: AH1(0) * STAKE 1 = AMOUNT WON

X: STAKE 1 + ((AMOUNT WON-STAKE 1)/X) * X =AMOUNT WON

Team 2 win: 2 * STAKE 3 =AMOUNT WON

Where (AMOUNT WON - STAKE 1)/X = STAKE 2

On the other example, it is similar, just take into account that in that case the draw would be the stake on ah1(0) + the outcome of ah2(+0,5) winning bet. And team b winning would include 2 and ah2 (+0,5).

There are many possible combinations for these types of bets... I think that the best option is to calculate manually...

Yes, correct calculation, make this calculation on excel, then write Stake 1 section exmple 100 and then "total bet stake" and "amount wons" will automatically calculated. Then compare results, if "amount wons" more than "total bet stake" it is Arb 8)  You know everything and still I don`t know what u r looking for
If you have difficulty to make excel with this calculation PM me your e-mail, I will send my excel
Logged

fairpunter
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -164
Posts: 334



View Profile
« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2015, 07:38:43 AM »

AH 1(0) --- X ---- money line(ML)-2
Bet stakes:   Odds type    Resturns
stake1            AH 1(0)        return1
stake2                X              return2
stake3             ML 2           return3

stake1 = for example 100                                 return1 = stake1 * AH1odd
stake2 = stake1*(AH1odd - 1) / odd X               return2 = stake2 * X + stake1
stake3 = return1 / mL2                                    return3 = stake3 * mL2

total Bet Stakes = stake1 + stake2 + stake3
compare  "total bet stakes"   with  "return 1"

Good luck
« Last Edit: January 01, 2016, 11:55:51 AM by fairpunter » Logged

whitesnake
Getting better
***

Karma: -1
Posts: 237


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2016, 07:42:56 AM »

what is the use of doing these calculations if they do not provide a no lose scenario?
Logged

Pages: [1]
Print
« previous next »