Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs

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Namnam
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Namnam

Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« on: January 13, 2016, 09:14:49 AM »
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Hi guys! I have started experimenting with arbs on accumulators/combos and need some advice. So far I have done so to bag some bonuses that are specific for accumulator/combo bets on the bookies I use. Therefore, I can accept some loss on the actual arb. But to minimize these negative % I would like to know if I can get some help in how to choose the events/matches for the second-third-forth leg in the bet.

I understand the basics: make 2 or more matches that should have some time between them so I can set up the next arb if the previous wins at the bookie. The first bet is a normal arb, but the hard part is the later bets. Since I place all of the back-bets at the same time in the bookie, I can never know the odds of the lay (or other side of a back-back bet) when the time comes for it to be placed.

My question is: what markets are more likely to become arbs the closer the event you get? Since laying is easiest to cover the bet, I manly use exchanges and therefore I want lower odds on the lay than when I placed the backbet, if possible. Is it big league matchodds that are best for this? What other markets?

Thanks
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2016, 06:13:47 PM »
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I use the tactic of leaving 3-4 days between each game of the parlay.  This way the odds don't change or barely change once your first leg is setlled.
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goldened
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goldened

Re: Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2018, 11:22:19 PM »
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Just some brain storming...

If you have a combo bet from 4 games with total back odds from let's say 8.50

Is there a possibility to lay 3 from the games assuming that at least 1 from these 3 will go wrong and the lay bet will win because when you back 4 games and only lay 3 the total lay odd will always be lower than the total back odd and you will have an arb... (so you have 3 chances the lay side will win)

Anyone ever tried this and is there a calculation for this method? (lay all at the start or one game after another?)
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2018, 11:40:20 PM »
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This can not ever work unless your total lay odd (including the game you didn't lay) is lower than the back odd...otherwise your EV will always be negative and you will be making a loss long term.

You're trying to find a way to use combo bets that aren't value bets to "make" value and win long term.  It's not mathematically possible.
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xajaker
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xajaker

Re: Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2018, 07:25:50 AM »
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check this site, oddsmonkey.com

i think they are designed for such thing, they have option and direction on what to do to bang the major bonus and i think yours might fit.
Am not advertising them but i found them useful over the months
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goldened
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goldened

Re: Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2018, 12:37:30 PM »
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This can not ever work unless your total lay odd (including the game you didn't lay) is lower than the back odd...otherwise your EV will always be negative and you will be making a loss long term.

That's my point, total lay odd is lower than total back odd, because I lay one game less than in combo (4 vs 3)
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goldened
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goldened

Re: Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2018, 12:45:42 PM »
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check this site, oddsmonkey.com

i think they are designed for such thing, they have option and direction on what to do to bang the major bonus and i think yours might fit.
Am not advertising them but i found them useful over the months

Which calculator or method do you mean?

I just want to make a combo from 4 back bets and lay 3 of them, hoping that the lay bet will win and if not, I still have one chance the 4th back bet will win
Because I only lay 3 games, the lay odd is lower than the back odd and there is an arb...
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Selecting events for accumulator/combo arbs
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2018, 01:23:23 PM »
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Oddsmonkey selects combo arbs you can lay on an exchange.  It makes use of bookie promos/freebets etc.  It's quite usefull if you have access to the bookies it supports.

Your own method will lose money in the long run with a 100% certainty, that's a mathematical fact.  Don't do it.
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