« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2016, 11:16:57 AM »
Yesterday I was bonus hunting and was going to do a qualified bet on PSG vs. Chelsea (which was played yesterday). I bet €308.17 on draw at the bookies with odds of 4 but only €102.26 at the exchange with odds of 4. The rest of the lay bet I accidentally put on Roma vs. Real Madrid at odds of 4.1 (draw). That game is today. PSG won, so I lost €308.17 on the bookies and won €102.26 on the exchange. Now, I have €198.23 at the exchange for the Roma vs. Real Madrid with the risk of losing €602.45 if the game ends in a draw.
I see three possibilities:
1. At the exchange I have €717.40 in balance to cover the draw. If I back €202.19 on draw pre-game I will certainly lose €102.26 - €202.19 - €308.17 = -€408,1.
2. If I gamble pre-game I have 75% chance to go break even: €102.26 + €198.23 - €308.17 = -7.68 and 25% chance to lose €102.26 - €602.45 - €308.17 = -€808,36
3. If I follow the game live I could cover the bet if I see that the game is heading towards a draw.
Any advice on what I should do?
what you should do is, bet the draw back on madrid game so as you are on zero or thereabouts on betfair and accept your loss from your mistake yesterday and learn from it, no arber exists who hasn't made mistakes, they are all painful and usually costly lessons, you've just had one, anything else is gambling, with gambling you can recover your losses or lose even more, only you can decide if you want to gamble to recover your losses, no one can decide this for you.
will tonight's game be a draw??? if it isn't and you do nothing you get away with it, if it is a draw you will sorely regret doing nothing.