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Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:28 am

Brazil Serie A: Atletico Paranaense - Chapecoense

Atletico are 6th, six points behind Santos in fourth place, but with 4th and 5th meeting ( see above) they will close up on one or both with all three points this evening and given that they are 11-2-1 at home, where they have conceded only five goals and with 54% +home wins in the league, it is difficult not to see them as value to do so at close to even money ! They actually have very good fixtures remaining and their next eight starts come against teams with an average league placing of 12.62.

Chapecoense have performed much better on the road than we have come to expect from them in recent campaigns, but such is the way of these things, that their usually very solid home form has suffered ! However, their are safe(ish) in mid table, have a Copa Sudamerican two legged semi final this month and I would expect them to be selective about which matches they really focus on from here on in, basically the Copa and home games, where they owe supporters a performance or two.

Atletico are a fantastic 7-0-0 at home when level at half time and waiting for the break is definitely an option, but I will officially go with...........

Atletico Paranaense -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:33 am

Irish Premier League: Finn Harps - Bray Wanderers

I want to take on goal shy Finn Harps again today, ahead of Tuesday's trip to Sligo Rovers I wrote ..........

"Finn Harps arrive without suspended left back Ciaran Coll and striker Dave Scully who are both suspended , also have Josh Mailey unavailable and several other knocks, which will require late tests. They have scored just twice since July 8th, only 19 times all season and have now lost nine in a row and confidence is shot and runs like these are very hard to address. The visitors currently sit four clear of the relegation playoff places and still have to travel to play the team directly below them, they could do with a point or two, but they are more likely to come at home, and they entertain Bray on Friday night and there is a good chance that if they fall behind this evening, that attention will quickly switch to that, a fixture which is more win-able and for which they will have increased options. They have no real replacement for Coll at LB, the unavailable Mailey stepped in the last time he was missing, so that is not an option, it is likely to be a midfielder stepping back and they are already short of left flank options."


Harps came away with a valuable point in a 0-0 draw, but were a little fortunate, with the hosts missing a late, late penalty.

They have now played Saturday/Tuesday/Friday with a beat up squad and face a Bray side who have not played for eight days and who are on absolute fire, posting five wins in a row, with a 13-3 goal difference, including three on the road. They have their eyes on 5th place , which would be their second highest finish ever and they would move into that position with all three points this evening.

Wanderers appointed Harry Kenny head coach in mid June, when they had just 8 points on board from 15 starts, he seriously upgraded the squad in the summer and they have collected 30 points from 14 starts since, an increase of 1.61 points per game, if Bray had performed at this level all season, they would be top of the IPL. If current leaders Dundalk were coming here tonight, they would be quoted as big odds on chances and the visitors look a very attractive price. Striker Ger Pender has scored in the last five league starts and will be keen to extend that club record this evening and Wanderers their 13 match unbeaten run.

Home boss Ollie Horgan would love to have an option like that, striker Ruairi Keating is definitely out after sustaining ankle ligament damage on Tuesday, fellow forward Dave Scully remains suspended ,veteran attacker Kevin McHugh will also be absent after sustaining a serious hand injury on Wednesday in a coaching session ,Adam Hanlon is a serious doubt. On the plus side they do get Ciaran Coll ( see above) back, but it is goals which are the big issue, that situation is compounded by players missing today and it is hard to see where the next one is coming from, whilst Bray cannot stop scoring !

Bray Wanderers -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket

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Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:26 am

England League 2: Hartlepool United - Crawley Town

Crawley Town also made the short list and are such a big price, I also have to take a little something on them. They are up to fifth and just two points off second place and confidence at the club is sky high right now . Much of this is down to new head coach Dermot Drummy who has transformed the mindset at Crawley in just four months, well know in the game, he spent many years working with the Arsenal and Chelsea Academy and U21 teams and was in charge of the Blues teams who won the FA Youth Cup and U21 Premier League and this was an eyecatching appointment for Crawley. He is said to have had a massive influence and he has brought with him six current (loan) and former Chelsea players, who were all desperate to work with him again. Lots of small things have been changed , for example, they set off early yesterday for Hartlepool and stopped and trained en route at the very impressive Leeds United Academy facilities and they just do everything the right way now. Town are unbeaten in five , with four wins, including the last two away starts, where they scored five goals. They were bought by Turkish steel magnate Ziya Eren in March, he owns a club in his homeland and looks to be in this for the long term (with a ten year plan to reach the Championship) and Crawley to be heading in the right direction

Pool are 0-4-3 in their last seven league at home, also lost 1-0 here to the Sunderland Academy on Tuesday and boss Craig Hignett was awarded a three match touchline ban yesterday and now for the bad news ! The hosts are without eight players today and are hard hit defensively and in central midfield, key absences are goalkeeper Trevor Carson who is on international duty, back up Adam Bartlett has conceded 15 goals in his last four starts, including six this year at 20th placed Stevenage and central midfielder Nicky Featherstone (lost 4 of last 5 he has sat out), his absence is compounded with Michael Woods also missing in the middle of the park. Crawley with the handicap start !

Crawley Town +0.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Tue Oct 11, 2016 12:07 pm

NBA Pacific Division: Golden State Warriors

We can’t start with anyone else except the Warriors, the past and, most probably, the future champion. Stating the obvious, it will be a case of history repeating itself. Warriors should be perfectly able to repeat Spurs’ achievement to recover nicely in psychological aspect and dethrone LBJ and Miami in 2014 after Ray Allen single-handedly took the title away from SAS in 2013.

GSW only got better and even more fearsome in the off-season, bringing Kevin Durant on board, one of the world’s Top 5 players. I can’t really understand all the tremor and negative feelings caused by this signing through the basketball world. Well, OKC fans are in their right to feel bad about KD leaving Oklahoma, but they are the only ones. Why should anybody else be unhappy and why should GSW managers feel awkward? Just because they have done really great job in keeping their salary cap in reasonable limits so be able to build a superior roster? No, it’s perfectly fine, that’s the game.

Sporting-wise, Durant is a great match for GSW (for any team actually  ). He has proved he is unselfish enough, playing so many seasons shoulder to shoulder with shot-first PG like Westbrook. The perspective of 4 GSW All-Star players in Curry, Klay, Draymond and KD is very real indeed. Something has to be given away in the process of course, last season’s starting center Bogut and SF Harrison Barnes are no more Warriors. It’s obvious who will replace Barnes and Zaza Pachulia was brought along to fill the gap in the center. Zaza is not quite Bogut’s class but he’s very reliable and consistent, plus Draymond will help and control the paints too, as usual.

Veteran forward David West is just the icing on the cake, he also joined the team in his last attempt to win a ring. David is not likely to see many minutes on the rotation but his experience and leadership will be useful for the team.

To cut the long story short, GSW won’t have any real competition this season, aside of Spurs and Cavs, and even these two will enter a possible play-off series with GSW as underdogs.

Speaking bettingwise, there’s no value to be taken re GSW currently, with them being so obviously superior team. I played with the idea to take some of Euro soft books / exchanges early offerings (around 1.80 odds for GSW champions) and trade it back for a few percentage sure profit if they start the season strong, something like 12-2 or better. This is highly realistic scenario btw, but the markets liquidity is weak, at least for now, and not really worth it at this stage.

Projected record: 68-14 (just because I think Steve Kerr will take a note and preserve his starters in the last 10+ games of the regular season)

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:29 am

Brazil Serie A: Atletico Mineiro - America Mineiro


I previewed Atletico's last start, a visit to Corinthians .........

"Corinthians form has nosedived, they looked firm title contenders through the first 14 games, had 28 points in the bag and were in second place, they have taken just 13 points from the last 14 and are down in 7th, seven points off Copa Libertadores pace and with six teams above them. They might soon be in a position where it will all be about the Copa do Brasil for them and it is possible they will play and might already be doing so, with less caution than we usually expect. AMG are third, four points clear of Santos in 4th and can afford to gamble at present and look to push on for the title. They are currently five adrift of leaders Palmeiras, but have still to host them and a late challenge is far from off the table . They collected 20 points from their first 14 starts, a whopping 32 from the second, which is a 27 point swing with Corinthians and if they had played at this level from the get-go, they would hold a seven point lead at the top of the table, which illustrates how well they have played since, well, mid June, since when they have collected more points than anyone.

They are fast starters on the road and have a +6 first half goal difference.

AMG are without defensive midfielder Rafael Carioca tonight, he is away with the national team, but the visitors are 6-1-0 in Serie A starts without him. His absence is offset , IMO, by Corinthians losing right back Fagner , they lost 2-0 at home to Palmeiras in the last game he missed with replacement Leo Principe being run ragged and eventually getting sent off after two yellow cards."


They drew that 0-0, a result which leaves them in third, 4 and 7 points respectively behind Flamengo and Palmeiras with nine rounds left to play. Third carries with it a place in the Copa Libertadores group stage, but 4th-6th will now get you in to the first stage and that does ease the pressure. Also, the top two both have difficult games today and Atletico have still to host both, so it would be very early to give up on title ambitions.

America are booked for a quick return to the second tier after promotion last season and are 13 points from safety and propping up the rest of Serie A. However, we can surely expect them to be up for this, in their last derby game of the season and if they can end Atletico's title ambitions, that would be a bonus.

However, 32 points separate these two, which is more than 1.1 per game and is a true reflection of the difference in quality and Atletico are taking this incredibly seriously and given the home side full respect. There was talk of their four international players being eased back, but Lucas Pratto, Rafael Carioca, Cazares and Erazo have all been rushed back from CONMEBOL World Cup action and go straight into the squad.

America have conceded two or more goals in 6 of their last 7 starts without keeper Fernado Leal who is suspended and come into this game additionally weakened defensively. They will have to open up at some stage and Atletico can make it 3/3 at home to bottom four teams by a 3-0 scoreline.

Atletico MG -1.25 goals 2.0 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Thu Oct 20, 2016 9:12 am

Europa League: Viktoria Plzen - Astra Giurgiu

Plzen are another team who have collected a lot of European experience in double quick time. They have made the group stage of the Champions League twice and the Europa League three times in the last six seasons and made the round of 16 twice in this competition.

Astra have only played five seasons total in Europe, they have some big name scalps in qualifying, including beating West Ham twice, but to be fair, they were early season ties against distracted teams , not fully committed to the competition. They did make the group stage in 2014-15 when they conceded 15 goals and they have given up 24 in their last 11 away days in Europe. Domestically they have half the points they had at the same stage last season, have won just 3/12 and are conceding at the rate of 1.5 goals per game. They are bottom of the group without a point and have alreday shipped seven goals, including a 4-0 loss away to Roma. That was "only" four as the hosts switched off at the hour mark, decided enough was enough and substituted three key players. Plzen are third and have two points, the top two have four points and are playing out a double header, so a fantastic chance for the home side to move into one of the top two spots and they will surely look for goals tonight, they already have draws with the top two and goal difference could easily come into play. Viktoria are looking for a third straight domestic title and currently trail the leader by two points. so every league game is important, but they need to build momentum and a convincing win here will help not hinder IMO.

Viktoria Plzen -1.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Fri Oct 21, 2016 3:00 pm

J League: Omiya Ardija - Shonan Bellmare

Shonan are eight points from safety , with nine to play for, but a point for Nagoya would make three wins meaningless and even six results going their way (ain't gonna happen!) would probably still leave them short on goal difference. In other words, preparations for JL2 will have already started, the evil deed can be officially done and dusted today and surely it is better to get that out of the way on the road and make next week's final home start, less painful. Shonan are 1-2-11 in Stage 2 and have not scored in four starts, only 9 times in 16 home games over the full season.

Omiya came up as champions last season and have had a terrific 2016, they are 6th in the overall table and whilst they have little to play for, 4th would be a fantastic achievement (they are only a point shy of Gamba) and has to be, you feel, a target. They spent ten straight seasons in the top flight until relegation in 2014, before dropping out, they (incredibly) finished between 12th and 15th for each of those previous nine campaigns and 4th would be amazing. So, still some motivation IMO and they could hardly be in better shape, bring unbeaten in six (all comps) with five wins and 12 goals in their last four and they can record a sixth straight home win over Shonan. The visitors are better on the road, where they have collected 14 of 21 points, but most of those came early in the campaign and they have only won once away from home since May 4th, this should not be a draw, we get few at this time of year and there is no good reason for one today and Omiya look the far more likely of the two to claim the win.

Omiya Ardija -0.75 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:28 am

Scottish Premier League: Hamilton - Aberdeen

Aberdeen have won six in a row in all competitions, a run which has taken them up to second in the SPL, they will be looking to stay there tonight, ahead of a home game with leaders Celtic at the weekend. Hamilton are in 10th place, which is where they finished last season and you suspect that if you offered that to them again, they would snatch your hand off for it and another year of survival. Teams have got used to the Tigerturf surface here now and Hamilton have won just 7 of 33 home SPL starts since January 1st 2015, they have been helped in that regard this season by an "easy" schedule so far and have yet to face one of the "big 4" at home. They have also lost their last four home midweek games, they entertain basement club Dundee on Saturday, that is the far more win-able fixture and in terms of staying in the SPL, the more important of this week's two games.

This is a great opportunity for the Dons to put some real pressure on Celtic , who played the Old Firm game on Sunday and a Champions League tie last midweek, they do not play until tomorrow and meet Aberdeen at lunchtime on Saturday, with the return game in Germany with BMG next Tuesday ! But all that will mean far less, if the visitors do not claim all three points this evening.

Aberdeen -1 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:12 am

Brazil Serie A: Sport Recife - Ponte Preta

Huge game for Sport, they have three of their next four on the road, including trips to two teams battling for Copa spots and sit just two points above the drop zone, with the teams immediately above them in the table having started to pick up their game(s) and points. I have spoken many times about how difficult a venue this is, Recife is a very long trip for almost every team in Brazil ( 5,400 km round trip for PP) and once here, conditions are often stifling and you are asked very different questions by both mind and body. I have no evidence, but I bet there have been a few yellow cards collected on purpose over the years, so that players miss this trip to play Sport. By the way, PP top scorer Roger sits this one out after picking up a yellow in the last game !! The hosts have a 60.27% home win record over the last four seasons, which even in a country where homes "always" run north of 50% is very impressive and to give it some context, is identical to that of Cruzeiro, who are two time champions over the same period.

Ponte Preta still have a small chance of top 6, but 11 of their 13 wins have come at home and they will have to gamble a little more than usual on the road today and that should play into the hands of Sport. The visitors have not won here in recent times and have conceded seven without scoring on their last three away days and anything other than three points for Recife would both surprise and leave them in trouble.

Sport Recife -0.75 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:13 am

Champions League: Borussia M. - Celtic

Celtic were run ragged in the first leg and lost 2-0, the magin of defeat should have been greater and aside from their performance at home to Manchester City and England-Scotland match ups do have a different dynamic, they look some way short of the quality required to compete at this level currently . Kolo Toure made two horrendous mistakes, he will miss today's game, which might well be a bonus for the visitors, but the loss of left back Kieran Tierney most definitely will not be. The youngster is ever present this season and described by most watchers as their best defender . With BMG surely looking again to press and harry Celtic into mistakes and the Scottish champions with no option but to attack and that is the only way they can play, when you win 77% (last four seasons) of all league games, you have little experience of setting up defensively. They need to win this to get back into (at least) Europa League contention and BMG will be similarly minded as three points is going to guarantee EL football and would actually take them above Manchester City and up into second, unless the Premier League leaders also beat Barcelona ( see below). BMG will be stronger tonight than for the first leg, Celtic will not sit back too long and should be even more vulnerable defensively and one goal, should see this get very stretched.

"over" 3 goals 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:40 pm

NBA: Washington Wizards – Toronto Raptors

Recommendation: Raptors -1

Odds: 1.952



Odds seem almost like a trap here, with Toronto being the far classier side. Wizards have a negative expectation for this season, compared with the last one, but they still have to win some games, linger around the 9-10th place in the East and wait for next summer free agents market.

This is their home opener actually and John Wall and Co will find some motivation to perform well in front of their fans. It’s one thing to plan and desire something and another thing to make it happen though.

Toronto swept the season series 4-0 last season. They might not repeat this feat, it’s hard to do it twice in a row with a semi-competitive team, but 3-1 seems like a legit result for the season.

Washington experience much difficulties when playing against opponents with strong backcourt (like Raptors, quite obviously). I am not a fan of Wizards’ perimeter defense too and hope Lowry will finally catch some fire and knock down some 3’s, while slowing down Wall on the defensive end.

All in all, I see this game as Toronto’s win to lose, let’s see

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Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:10 am

Golf PGA: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Wide open leaderboard with 20 players within four stroke of the lead. I only want to discuss one of those, Geoff Ogilvy, he was a seven time winner on Tour between 2005-2010 when he simply oozed class , winning the US Open and finishing top six in all four majors. He has won just once since then , in 2014, but before you feel too sorry for him, he has banked $40m+ in prize money alone. Still only 39, he should have double that number of wins. However, class is permanent and you might get out of the habit, yet rarely totally forget how to win. When he won in 2014, he nearly followed up a couple of weeks later at a big playoff event and whilst we have seen little of him at the top of the leaderboard since, he finished 2016 with a couple of eyecatching finishes (this is technically a 2017 tournament........... don't ask !). He shot a Sunday 63 at the Canadian Open in July and in August was 67-68 over the weekend at the John Deere and 68-66 at the Wyndham. He has played the back nine in -11 this week, which is as good/better than almost everyone and if he can reach the turn within a shot or two of the lead, he could turn back the clock today.

39 is that funny age, golfers should not really be having a stellar or comeback year at 29 or 39, it ought really to come at 30 or 40, once you have got the "trauma" of that milestone birthday out of the way. But when chances for Ogilvy come along rarely nowadays, I think we have to forget that, anyway, his wife just turned 40 and maybe that will provide the inspiration and knowledge that life just keeps rolling on ! He likes the hot dry weather and lives in the desert, so should be happy here in Nevada and his last win, came at the Barracuda Championship in this state, so omens are good.

We can "waste" a little at big odds............ Geoff Ogilvy to win outright 17.0 general quote...........there is a little at 17.5/18.0 on Betfair

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:13 am

Checkatrade Trophy: Sunderland U23 - Notts County

Hosts are in with a point, County need to win. The visitors will surely be up for a visit to the Stadium of Light, even in front of one man and his dog, five of their six league wins this season have come on the road . Head coach John Sheridan said:"I don't expect the crowd to be big, but it's a beautiful stadium and it's a lovely pitch to go and play football on."It's a game we want to win, and hopefully the players will go and do that. "We know if we win we go through. "The players know that."Not many people will know much about their players, but I went to watch them against Rochdale and they've got some good, bright, young players."Technically they are very good and it will be a good test for us. "But we will have more experience and hopefully we can affect the game the way we want to."At Premier League academies they get all these luxuries – it's a different world."But I think they will respect coming up against the teams from League One and League Two, they will realise it's a tough old game."It is totally different to academy football and I think it's good for the younger players from Premier League clubs to see what it takes to earn a living at that level.

It says a lot about Sheridan that he personally travelled five hours on a midweek night to watch future opposition in this competition and he is not going to put in that kind of effort and not demand at least the same from his players and they should make their experience tell.

Notts County +0.25 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket

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Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:17 pm

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks – New Orleans Pelicans

Recommendation: Bucks - 5

Odds: 1.87

I think I’ve made myself clear enough, Pelicans will be one of the weakest teams this season. Actually, they are front-runners to be the worst team in the league and to guarantee themselves the best chance to win the lottery. It’s still very early for intentional tanking, they are still very bad and don’t possess deep enough NBA-ready roster besides Davis. The bench situation is even more dramatic, pretty naturally.

Bucks already took the first win in this season’s series, a week ago in New Orleans, and will actually clean sweep Pelicans with a win tonight. Milwaukee come off a 3 days rest tonight, fresh and motivated to continue they good home form with a 4th consecutive victory here.

They play way more freely at home. The last 2 wins here were quite good and comfortable ones, over Sacramento and Indiana. Milwaukee have more than enough big bodies to throw at Davis on the defensive end. It will be a total surprise if they don’t have the rebounding edge too.

All in all, I can’t see New Orleans stopping Bucks from scoring buckets tonight, so hopefully the mid spread won’t prove to be a problem

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Re: Sports Betting Advice Service Clubgowi

Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:20 am

World Cup Qualifiers: Northern Ireland - Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan are unbeaten through three group games and have yet to concede, keeping clean sheets against both Norway and the Czech Republic and holding a surprise second place in Group C behind big favourites Germany. It is only the second playoff spot that is realistically up for grabs and the visitors would take a very firm grip on it, were they to win in Belfast. Northern Ireland are not exactly full of goals and the absences of Stuart Dallas and Jamie Ward lessen their offensive threat and without Ward, the Irish are an incredibly bad 1-9-16 in the last six years, the win coming over the Faroe Islands and that sequence included a 1-1 home draw with Azerbaijan. They have been starting with Josh Magennis up front, with Ward in the secondary role in recent games, Magennis had just 28 goals in the SPL in five seasons and is hardly banging them in regularly for Charlton Athletic this season in the third tier of English football (a goal every 400 minutes) and it is easy to make a case for Azerbaijan keeping the Irish fairly quiet. A goal for the visitors should be enough for a point (aside from against San Marino the Irish have only scored more than one in 2 of 12 starts) and they might not even need that and this game feels like it has been priced wrongly and based on what was perceived as a strong Euro showing for Northerm Ireland, where they actually lost 3/4 and they have failed to score in six of their last eight starts. Azerbaijan have two teams in the group stages of the Europa League, with domestic champions Qarabag, who supply eight of this squad, in good position to qualify and this is clearly a footballing nation on the rise.

Azerbaijan +0.5 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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