Pinnacle Lean

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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Pinnacle Lean
« on: March 09, 2016, 11:59:03 AM »

Plain and simple question:

Does anyone have any data on betting along with the pinnacle lean on an exchange?  E.g. if Pinny is favouring Team A in a game VS team B (best market odds for team B, indicating they have a preference for team A and want no money on it).

You'd be betting value as you are beating the pinny line but avoid the soft limiting...and would basically be betting along with the Pinny traders.
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white32
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2016, 12:18:57 PM »

I dont want to create a new topic, so I would like to write my question just here:

How many Pinnacle (%) odds are not sharp in a closing line?
I think its about 10%. On semi-late markets - 15%.
What do you think?
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Arbusers
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2016, 01:37:48 PM »

I dont want to create a new topic, so I would like to write my question just here:

How many Pinnacle (%) odds are not sharp in a closing line?
I think its about 10%. On semi-late markets - 15%.
What do you think?

I am not sure if I understand the question, but Pinnacle is always sharp with a small exception of underdogs where betfair is always sharper (in big leagues). Some times softs are also sharper but this is an exception again.
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white32
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2016, 02:25:29 PM »

If pinnacle odds are always sharp and efficient (show the real probability) then it would be impossible to make profit there, but as we all know there are some pro`s who can find value in the pinnacle odds (especially in early markets), that means some percentage of odds are not very sharp. Maybe I just dont understand the definition of sharp, but I can replace it as efficient.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 02:29:03 PM by white32 » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2016, 02:53:01 PM »

If pinnacle odds are always sharp and efficient (show the real probability) then it would be impossible to make profit there, but as we all know there are some pro`s who can find value in the pinnacle odds (especially in early markets), that means some percentage of odds are not very sharp. Maybe I just dont understand the definition of sharp, but I can replace it as efficient.

It's because in the early markets, they are not efficient yet and the market has not been fully formed.  Pinny uses, to a degree, the early market sharp bettors to shape their lines.  Generally, you can assume the pinnacle closing line reflects the true market odds.
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white32
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2016, 03:51:31 PM »

Quote
It's because in the early markets, they are not efficient yet and the market has not been fully formed.  Pinny uses, to a degree, the early market sharp bettors to shape their lines.  Generally, you can assume the pinnacle closing line reflects the true market odds.

Yes, it`s true. Of course I understand this basic process. My question was about percentages of this inefficient odds. For example: early markets have 25% wrong odds, late markets 15% and the closing line has 10%. Its my view. I dont think that all closing odds are sharp. What do you think?
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 03:55:13 PM by white32 » Logged
raizzak
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2016, 04:57:52 PM »

Well don't forget one thing which is the most important to pros. There is no point to hammer a soft line if you can't make a decent turnover, Sure the pinnacle lines are very very sharp but big moves happen everytime (some very close to kickoff). Also i wouldn't really respect the moves at early markets some times especially at some big sports there is a lot of line manipulation behind the curtains 
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dealer wins
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2016, 04:59:38 PM »

On major markets (Say max bet £3000+)  Pinny are sharp just about 100% of the time.

It stands to reason really, the biggest betters in the world use Pinny as its really the only book you can get a decent wedge on with.  Not only that you will have many other books laying off bets there, as well as us arbers keeping the line honest.

In any arb involving Pinny, the Pinny bet is always the last one I place, not sure if that means anything lol
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white32
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2016, 05:28:10 PM »

Quote
On major markets (Say max bet £3000+)  Pinny are sharp just about 100% of the time.

If its true, then there is no point to place bets and have a risk, when you can just trade instead of it (there is even no point to trade if odds are always efficient, because you will receive nothing in the long term, just paying commision). But I dont think that its true, because I know some pros who can take closing line major market odds and have long-term profit. Major markets are sharp, but there are always some highrollers with huge money who make stupid bets changing odds to value. Not all money are clever.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 05:34:31 PM by white32 » Logged
raizzak
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2016, 06:10:26 PM »

On major markets (Say max bet £3000+)  Pinny are sharp just about 100% of the time.

It stands to reason really, the biggest betters in the world use Pinny as its really the only book you can get a decent wedge on with.  Not only that you will have many other books laying off bets there, as well as us arbers keeping the line honest.

In any arb involving Pinny, the Pinny bet is always the last one I place, not sure if that means anything lol

If that was true the opening odds and the closing odds would be exactly the same (or almost the cents +- 5 cents) and that's not the case. IN nba for example it is not unusual the spread move 2-2.5 points (without any injury news)
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tiha_patnja
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2016, 10:16:16 PM »

If I may ask, when did the pinnacle market open for example on saturday PL or yesterday CL?

Is it always the same time?
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dealer wins
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2016, 10:16:08 AM »

If I may ask, when did the pinnacle market open for example on saturday PL or yesterday CL?

Is it always the same time?

In my experience its NEVER the same time.  Its not always the same day of the week!!
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Zestion
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2016, 02:50:15 AM »

If I may ask, when did the pinnacle market open for example on saturday PL or yesterday CL?

Is it always the same time?


In my experience its NEVER the same time.  Its not always the same day of the week!!


I read a lot that pinnacle might even offers some kind of value, but in my opinion this is only as you guys mentioned when the market opens. So my question is, is there any kind of chance to make profit on the market opening as I expect that computer software tools snap up all those profitable odds and is this kind of value not a bit of a gamble as at that time there are by far not all bookies in the market?

My second question just to be sure is whether there is really no value on pre match odds at pin. As example I take this match where pin is the highest bookie available : http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/greece/super-league/panthrakikos-atromitos-zm6NnGCm/

Looking forward to your answers!
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Alfa1234
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2016, 08:22:13 AM »

Off topic but those Atromitos odds have been dropping like a brick and created some very nice arbs yesterday.  All with Pinny as the counter bet. ;D

Kinda a perfect example of the "lean" IMHO...Pinny wants you to bet Panthrakikos here.
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Buddha
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Re: Pinnacle Lean
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2016, 08:06:47 PM »

Guys, Pinnacle is not the God of gambling, no matter how good and popular they are. They make mistakes too, even in closing line odds. They make unintended mistakes in small markets with not so big limits, and let users shape their odds.
Better if you specify leagues and sport and take other bookmakers in consideration when talking about sharpness.
Take Hong Kong football leagues for example, no other bookmaker is sharper than 188BET/Singbet there and you may guess why. For NBA/NHL they surely are the sharpest out there.
On Premier League/Serie A/Bundesliga/La Liga/UCL/EL I would consider SBO and IBC odds sharper than Pinnacle's judging from my experience and evaluation.
However that is just my opinion, yours may be different.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2016, 08:09:21 PM by Buddha » Logged
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