Value bettor

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Osaka
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Osaka

Value bettor
« on: March 12, 2016, 09:09:40 AM »

Hello everyone,

long time lurker here, finally decided to register. Unlike most of you I don't come from arbing, but am original value bettor. Been working for a number of sportsbooks as bookmaker and risk manager, still in the business. I do howsoever bet in my spare time (work hours included :D). Last 2 years I have been off and on value betting (mostly off due lack of time) but still managed to get a nice base. 3000+ bets, ROI 9%, but I must point out that these stats include also some inside information bets, fixed matches, following sharp bets etc so that had a big positive impact on profit. But let say 95% clean value bets. Month ago I have started strictly value betting project so I reckon ROI will go down for sure in the long run (would be satisfied with 5-10% in long run). Staking was flat, but now I am tring different approach with to win amount so I could maximise profit and avoid big downswings. Mostly soccer 3way, o/u, HC but also basketball and handball. I stay away from all other sports as they have not proven profitable to me. Before I used to place bets on all odds, these days I do only 1,7 - 3,0 and even thinking of reducing it to 1,7 - 2,5. Lower and higher odds then this interval have proven to be time wasting (take a lot of time, small return) and also I think bigger odds can make downswings more painful. As I am working for a sportsbook I have lot of tools at my disposal so I think my ROI should be even higher then it is at the moment, so I am open for discussion and advices would be appreciated. I use Betradar, Rebelbetting, BetOnValue and AsianMonitor.
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antemartic
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antemartic

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2016, 03:07:15 PM »

Hello everyone,

long time lurker here, finally decided to register. Unlike most of you I don't come from arbing, but am original value bettor. Been working for a number of sportsbooks as bookmaker and risk manager, still in the business. I do howsoever bet in my spare time (work hours included :D). Last 2 years I have been off and on value betting (mostly off due lack of time) but still managed to get a nice base. 3000+ bets, ROI 9%, but I must point out that these stats include also some inside information bets, fixed matches, following sharp bets etc so that had a big positive impact on profit. But let say 95% clean value bets. Month ago I have started strictly value betting project so I reckon ROI will go down for sure in the long run (would be satisfied with 5-10% in long run). Staking was flat, but now I am tring different approach with to win amount so I could maximise profit and avoid big downswings. Mostly soccer 3way, o/u, HC but also basketball and handball. I stay away from all other sports as they have not proven profitable to me. Before I used to place bets on all odds, these days I do only 1,7 - 3,0 and even thinking of reducing it to 1,7 - 2,5. Lower and higher odds then this interval have proven to be time wasting (take a lot of time, small return) and also I think bigger odds can make downswings more painful. As I am working for a sportsbook I have lot of tools at my disposal so I think my ROI should be even higher then it is at the moment, so I am open for discussion and advices would be appreciated. I use Betradar, Rebelbetting, BetOnValue and AsianMonitor.
odds over 3 time wasting? Maybe for you. you can't find value under 3 big as you can find in higher odds. More value will not help to make more because your stakes would be lower with big odds. I'm taking all values don't care about odds. If it is value than it's good for me and in long run will give me profit.
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cristi13
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Re: Value bettor
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2016, 02:14:18 PM »

antemartic is right, you are making a mistake here, value is value no matter what odds.
But from a money management perspective, the higher the odds, the better, as you need to invest less for the same expected return, so less liquidity problems.
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Osaka
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Osaka

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2016, 09:51:12 PM »

Thanks for the input guys. I am just tring to avoid variance and big downswings.

My hit rate for odds 3,00-5,00 is 27%. Not too good but not bad either. For example 1,75-2,00 62% and 1,75 -2,00 59%. Making 10 lost bets in a row with 3,00+ odds shouldn't be that rare as I have had some bad periods with underdogs (higher odds). I see your point antemartic but wouldn't sticking to more likely outcomes decrease danger of bad periods (downswings)? I am staking 1,5-2,5% of the bank, if it was less i wouldn't be that cautious.
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cristi13
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cristi13

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2016, 06:05:10 PM »

That's exactly why you don't stake flat.
Stake "to win amount" and your risk will be directly proportional to hit rate.
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2016, 07:13:46 PM »

Flat stake is a mistake.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html
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Osaka
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Osaka

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2016, 10:33:24 AM »

Flat stake is a mistake.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html


I have already read this topic more then once, including all posts about value betting here, good stuff.

Glad you joined the discussion, want to ask you about this part of value betting. You state that: '' ...If we have a 3 way outcome, then we follow the same tactic betting 2 legs, but not the leg of the basebook. This is not handy, because it enables more money and requests more time and efforts...''

Wouldn't it be more profitable just to follow one leg that represents value because of odds drift? For example: Team A to win is -0,5 2,35 at SBO. Softbook offers 1x2odds  2,7,2,7,2,7. I always take only one leg (this case tip1) and ignore draw, even when odds are higher then 2,35/2,7.
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2016, 01:42:49 PM »

It would be better not to extract text out of the general frame. Yes you could take only 1 leg, the one with the highest value. The one with the biggest % odd movement.
It is just a matter of style.
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ArberPro
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ArberPro

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2016, 01:43:55 PM »

Flat stake is a mistake.
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html

For me flat stake works really well
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Osaka
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Osaka

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2016, 07:11:53 PM »

@arbusers - thanks

@arberpro - I must say that I see much better results after 200 bets with 'to win amount' staking plan then flat staking. Yes, it is a small sample still but I also am much more confident about my picks and feel more in control. Flat staking worked well for me as well, but it might be the case that you are not maximizing your profits/earning potential, same as I most likely didn't in last 3 years. It is not only about making money, it is also about making as much as you can.
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2016, 07:19:48 PM »

If we do the maths, flat staking will also lead to profits as long as the bets represent value and the sample is big (really big). On the other hand, the ''to win'' amount is spreading risks equally and allows mickey mouse bookmakers like interwetten (and similar) to contribute to the effort. When stakes go bigger, mickey mouse bookmakers become useless.
One could work in 2 modes to maximize profits. First, with a small ''to win'' amount where all bookmakers contribute even with limited stakes. Second, with a bigger ''to win'' amount where big books and exchanges (if possible) contribute their share.
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testez
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testez

Re: Value bettor
« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2016, 12:49:12 PM »

in a perfect environment the - to win stake is the way to go..but in the real situation, with all the limitations involved in this activity, a hybrid of the two or just flat stake is the way to go for  most ppl here.
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