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Value driven Predictive Arbitrage

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Author Topic: Value driven Predictive Arbitrage  (Read 625 times)
IanRushftw
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« on: March 18, 2016, 05:35:00 PM »

With betting markets much more sophisticated and with much better access to information than in the 2000s, many of you will find that's it harder and harder to find a pure real time arb on decent websites/markets based in regulated countries, much of my trading now relies upon my 'eye for value', where I'll have a look at weekend fixtures a few days in advance and predict which ones may move before kick off, to give an example for this weekend in the premier league fixtures (19th-20th March) the Chelsea v West Ham match has Chelsea as heavy favourites at present.

I predict that people will realise that West Ham are actually the in form team and Chelsea have lost their lead striker due to suspension and surely the odds on West Ham winning or even double chance are not correct so I'd put a bet on West Ham now and expect (and maybe hope for) the odds on West Ham to fall and then lay it off pre kick off on an exchange for an arbitrage free bet using value bet driven initiative.

Would anybody classify this as a valid modern day arbitrage technique or just a less risky form of gambling?
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There is value to be found in everything!

De Graaf
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2016, 09:06:43 PM »

If you can'* lock your position at the same time (bet both sides at very small time interval) than it is not arbitrage. What you describe is trading.
It is not just a question of semantics, it is essential to pay attention that in arbitrage there is no time period (close to zero) of uncertainty. (regarding the outcome, lots of other bad things can still happen). So the risk involved with the outcome is essentially taken care of. (again, close to zero)
This is quite different than what you are describing.


Edit: can't*
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Saloman
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2016, 11:14:36 PM »

I predict that people will realise that West Ham are actually the in form team and Chelsea have lost their lead striker due to suspension and surely the odds on West Ham winning or even double chance are not correct so I'd put a bet on West Ham now and expect (and maybe hope for) the odds on West Ham to fall and then lay it off pre kick off on an exchange for an arbitrage free bet using value bet driven initiative.

Yeah like De Graaf said, that sounds more like trading.  The problem with this idea is that many people are already doing this and experts at it so your chances of being able to find an edge on major football very hard, if you pick minor football then there is less liquidity available.

Trading is all about knowing when a price will move before it happens.
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