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Eurovision 2016

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Author Topic: Eurovision 2016  (Read 1534 times)
cortomaltese
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« on: April 25, 2016, 09:30:00 AM »

Hi mates!
Eurovision song contest is a major arbing/trading event and purpose of this topic is to share any usefull , infos , estimations , thoughts
Just look at the amounts already traded in Betfair and odds movements!
Now... observe for example the two major favourites , Russia and France.

Opening odds for Russia was around 5.00 rised up to 12.00 and now are around 3.3

France’s case is far more interesting ! Opening odds was  around 25.00 rised up to 110!!! and now are around 5,00 or less.
Obviously terrorist hits to France played a major role here , also France’s song is attractive to a lot of people , add to that ,the fact that Russia is not to much appealing to most of Western European countries especially after Ucraine and Syria war and can explain then the huge drop of France’s odds.
There are many estimations between Eurovision “specialists” that until Eurovision  final at 14 May , France will be the first favourite overcoming Russia!
Note that France doesn’t have to pass from semifinals like Russia and is already to final

The next two favourites are Sweden and Australia

Sweden has a decent “eurovision type” song and obviously is among the countries with best performances  in Eurovision contests but of course being the winner of last year’s contest is not in their favour (I don’t know how many times the same country won two times in row)

Australia I think is a newcomer to the contest and that fact alone I think it’s in their favour , their odds are around 15,00 right now at Betfair.

So what are your thoughts ? Any estimation where worth to invest etc ?
« Last Edit: April 25, 2016, 09:31:54 AM by cortomaltese » Logged

raizzak
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2016, 09:41:20 AM »

i already have a 500euro bet with France @ 7.5
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cortomaltese
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« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2016, 09:59:22 AM »

If you plan to trade it i would say it's better to wait !
Even now with odds around 5,00 imho opinion France  holds value
They have a decent song , their biggest opponent Russia is not very attracting to the most Western Europeans and most importandtly France has the sympathy of many Europeans after terrorist attacks and maybe will send a message with their votes!
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raizzak
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« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2016, 11:24:25 AM »

Except anything really bad my intention all along is to let it ride
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Arbusers
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« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2016, 01:01:23 PM »

Classic arbing during the contest is becoming more and more difficult. Trading is gaining ground here.
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daniel
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2016, 01:47:36 PM »

I am ready for Eurovision, but with 100 Euros ahahhahahahaha go go go Song Contest 2016
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cortomaltese
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« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2016, 11:02:09 PM »

Except anything really bad my intention all along is to let it ride

I did back France also , unfortunately with lower odds compared to you , but i have the same feeling , probably we have a strong favourite here ;)
« Last Edit: April 25, 2016, 11:09:10 PM by cortomaltese » Logged

fairpunter
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« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2016, 08:19:02 AM »

Even if France doesn`t win Eurovision song contest, it will be very good propaganda of France before Euro 2016 matches in France, results of Eurovision song contest depends on politics always
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cortomaltese
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« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2016, 06:43:51 PM »

Even if France doesn`t win Eurovision song contest, it will be very good propaganda of France before Euro 2016 matches in France, results of Eurovision song contest depends on politics always

Yeap that's a plus also ;)
I just remembered that  Greece won Eurovision contest in 2004 just a few months before Olympic Games which was organised by Greece!
Coincidense?
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geetz
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« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2016, 06:48:27 PM »

Even if France doesn`t win Eurovision song contest, it will be very good propaganda of France before Euro 2016 matches in France, results of Eurovision song contest depends on politics always

Yeap that's a plus also ;)
I just remembered that  Greece won Eurovision contest in 2004 just a few months before Olympic Games which was organised by Greece!
Coincidense?

I don't think so! ;)
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Arbusers
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« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2016, 07:09:29 PM »

Even if France doesn`t win Eurovision song contest, it will be very good propaganda of France before Euro 2016 matches in France, results of Eurovision song contest depends on politics always

Yeap that's a plus also ;)
I just remembered that  Greece won Eurovision contest in 2004 just a few months before Olympic Games which was organised by Greece!
Coincidense?

That was an outstanding year for Greece, lifting Euro 2004, Eurovision and Eurobasket 2005. All within a year.
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cortomaltese
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2016, 05:47:21 PM »

raizzak  Did you keep your France bet , or trade it ?
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raizzak
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« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2016, 12:06:34 AM »

keeping all the way.

Edit: it is probably the wrong choice it seems :/ still im willing to let it run
« Last Edit: May 09, 2016, 09:35:54 AM by raizzak » Logged

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cortomaltese
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« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2016, 08:31:07 PM »

seems so , since french rehearsals didn't impressed eurofans!
They were very simple and minimal , no fanfares involved , just plain singing.
Anyway we ll see
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2016, 08:38:29 PM »

As the voting is always political I'm going for Ukraine to win it purely to piss off the Russians ;-)
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