Arbusers position on Brexit

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arbusers
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Arbusers position on Brexit
« on: June 24, 2016, 03:02:30 PM »
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Before anything else, I congratulate UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Brits endured with fortitude horrible PsyOps, beautifully and delicately wrapped threats, coming from all kinds of pundits, celebrities and luminaries. You need to have courage to go again this storm surge.

The United Kingdom is there since 1707. If we consider England as the core state of the UK then we can say that it is there since the 10th century. The UK is a sovereign state, while the EU is a hybrid supranational and intergovernmental decision-making entity founded after WWII.
The pound sterling is the world's oldest currency still in use. The euro came into existence only in 1999.
Historical depth is clearly on UK’s side. It is a logical conclusion that the UK will still be there for some time after EU’s disintegration. The UK is an irreversible state, while the EU is not.
Those who threaten the UK with any mean, are doing their bigger bluff ever.

Now let’s face reality. In particular, the German reality.
The Franco-German reconciliation in post WWII Europe produced the illusion that the construction of Europe was led by France, backed by an economically dynamic West Germany. The UK would be a useful for all addition in the EU, making sure that no country would dominate it. The re-unification of Germany brought everyone’s aspirations back to reality. Germany’s economic and financial power replaced French political leadership. With the collapse of the eastern bloc, 2 dozen countries applied for EU membership and all well known German satellites came to orbit again. These satellites moved the European center of gravity to the east, transforming Germany from the bastion of the West to the center of the continent.
The 2008 financial crisis proved that a Germany led European Union was holding all means of power on the continent, dictating policies, demanding and eventually taking pieces of sovereignty from many countries.
We ‘ve seen the Greeks and the Italians having their Prime Ministers appointed by Berlin (Papademos, Monti). We ‘ve seen France accepting all kind of insults with no revenge. Schaeuble ‘’has asked a panel of advisers to look into reform proposals for France’’. French perkiness was consumed in futile demonstrations against Gadaffi and African radical groups that eventually strengthen terrorism globally. I could go on for days, but the general idea is that the average Brit realized that there is a German Gauleiter in the neighborhood who is looking for a more ‘’Soviet style’’ governance. The average Brit is used to be a Boss also and his DNA is not allowing him to be a subordinate.

Let me resume everything with the following great Churchill’s saying:
We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.

The Brits choose the open sea instead of Germany. It is that simple.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 03:10:49 PM by Arbusers » Logged
yorkjoss
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2016, 04:35:45 PM »
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good post, I agree with you and always thought for similar reasons that we would vote to leave but make no mistake,
immigration was far and away the main reason, many parts of England have been taken over, many eastern europeans will work for far less than a Brit, many Uk companies have exploited this, wages and working conditions for the masses were getting worse, in the short to medium term it's bad news, for the young they get their country back, if the EU is now going to slowly disintegrate? then UK getting out first will be to it's advantage.

but hey from an arbing point of view, when people are worried about their cashflow, they're more likely to say yes
when an arber asks if they will be his friend ;)        and a lot of the UK books have now shortened Mr D Trump after
today's result, who knows maybe he will get elected and allow online gambling again in the 50 states???.....that would be nice for arbers
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 04:43:51 PM by yorkjoss » Logged
Skaggerak
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2016, 05:34:56 PM »
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What kind of knock on effect do you think this will have towards books behaviours if any? Lots of British based books, could mean bad things for anyone outside of their country. If there's a recession it also means less casual gambling and even meaner books. Most of my currency is in Euro, I'm thinking of converting everything equally between £$€ that I can.
While I like Arbusers post, there's a lot of rhetoric in it that could prove irrational. Yes the pound is old, yes the empire is old, much like all the old empires that have fallen, The fact is Britain leaving means now more than ever the EU and euro as a whole will face its biggest test. If it fails, UK will have taken the early exit so many will have wished they could've taken, Britain will be proved right and prosper. But if many countries opt to stay in because of what could be considered the economic and societal benefits of the Union, then the UK will be a wasteland. The fact that Northern Ireland and Scotland both voted to stay puts their own union in tremendous jeopardy. The Brits have decided to take a massive gamble with high risk and reward in my opinion. The Netherlands referendum will be major, as the EU begins to assess itself we will find out who will succeed.
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arbusers
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2016, 08:45:16 PM »
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Guys, lets see things the way they are.
When the UK gets out of the EU, all UK books will again start operating everywhere in this planet with out the limitations of the EU legislation.
I suppose that Betfair has no reason not to accept Greeks, Romanians, Italians, French, German gamblers again. Who, how and why could stop that?
Some of you think that e-wallets accept players only from the EU. Guys, the e-wallets accept Koreans, Kiwis and South Africans. None of them belong to the EU.
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tiha_patnja
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2016, 04:24:59 AM »
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What is the logic of the law that forbade betfair to take players from germany, italy, portugal etc? I do not understand that really and would really like to. I have never seen the real explanation except that they need to get a licence but that means that they will have worse markets and betfair will have worse markets (less liq) witch in the end doesnt help anyone except politicians who made another "life changing law".
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luctens
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2016, 05:42:24 AM »
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Before anything else, I congratulate UK’s decision to leave the EU.
Brits endured with fortitude horrible PsyOps, beautifully and delicately wrapped threats, coming from all kinds of pundits, celebrities and luminaries. You need to have courage to go again this storm surge.

The United Kingdom is there since 1707. If we consider England as the core state of the UK then we can say that it is there since the 10th century. The UK is a sovereign state, while the EU is a hybrid supranational and intergovernmental decision-making entity founded after WWII.
The pound sterling is the world's oldest currency still in use. The euro came into existence only in 1999.
Historical depth is clearly on UK’s side. It is a logical conclusion that the UK will still be there for some time after EU’s disintegration. The UK is an irreversible state, while the EU is not.
Those who threaten the UK with any mean, are doing their bigger bluff ever.

Now let’s face reality. In particular, the German reality.
The Franco-German reconciliation in post WWII Europe produced the illusion that the construction of Europe was led by France, backed by an economically dynamic West Germany. The UK would be a useful for all addition in the EU, making sure that no country would dominate it. The re-unification of Germany brought everyone’s aspirations back to reality. Germany’s economic and financial power replaced French political leadership. With the collapse of the eastern bloc, 2 dozen countries applied for EU membership and all well known German satellites came to orbit again. These satellites moved the European center of gravity to the east, transforming Germany from the bastion of the West to the center of the continent.
The 2008 financial crisis proved that a Germany led European Union was holding all means of power on the continent, dictating policies, demanding and eventually taking pieces of sovereignty from many countries.
We ‘ve seen the Greeks and the Italians having their Prime Ministers appointed by Berlin (Papademos, Monti). We ‘ve seen France accepting all kind of insults with no revenge. Schaeuble ‘’has asked a panel of advisers to look into reform proposals for France’’. French perkiness was consumed in futile demonstrations against Gadaffi and African radical groups that eventually strengthen terrorism globally. I could go on for days, but the general idea is that the average Brit realized that there is a German Gauleiter in the neighborhood who is looking for a more ‘’Soviet style’’ governance. The average Brit is used to be a Boss also and his DNA is not allowing him to be a subordinate.

Let me resume everything with the following great Churchill’s saying:
We have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.

The Brits choose the open sea instead of Germany. It is that simple.

The truth is that for the vast majority of the public they weren't campaigning to be allowed a vote on EU membership and the vast majority of people would have gone happily along with their lives without ever wanting or needing a vote on this. This vote only occurred because of the Tory party problems with backbenchers and the rise of UKIP. It seems that a lot of the voters didn't really care too much about the EU and were just looking for an opportunity to put two fingers up to the experts and the establishment and this was a chance to do it. I would like to believe that the Brits made such a nuanced and thoughtful decision as to why to leave as detailed in your comments, but somehow I very much doubt it.

This is the next step on the anti-establishment movement that started with the Egypt uprising, then the takedown of Gaddafi, then the protests in Greece, then the election of Jeremy Corbyn and then this. The ultimate and final next step would be if Trump defeated Clinton to get the most powerful job in the world.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2016, 08:06:25 AM »
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Are you sure that "leave" is final?!
Are you sure that uk goverment will honour referandum's result?
Remember what happened with the greek referandum last year ;)
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tiha_patnja
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tiha_patnja

Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2016, 08:11:14 AM »
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Guys, lets see things the way they are.
When the UK gets out of the EU, all UK books will again start operating everywhere in this planet with out the limitations of the EU legislation.
I suppose that Betfair has no reason not to accept Greeks, Romanians, Italians, French, German gamblers again. Who, how and why could stop that?
Some of you think that e-wallets accept players only from the EU. Guys, the e-wallets accept Koreans, Kiwis and South Africans. None of them belong to the EU.
I'm surprised the administrator ignorance of this forum should be more informed on the issues of bookmakers and ewallet. Apart from the fact that they are not so sure that we will have more to do with Britain, but we will have to do with the Little Britain without Scotland and Ireland no. UK exiting the EU does not mean that English bookmakers tomorrow accept USA players, because the laws on gambling to date are regulated by national laws and not European.
For Betfair, bad suppose, because betfair.com according to European standards can accept any European citizen, but can not accept Italian (for example) because he asked for and obtained a license to operate in Italy with betfair.it
Finally, dear arbusers, we are not ignorant, then we do not think that the e-wallet function only with Europeans, but in the world there are e-wallet more honest than those in England

Is the betfair italy problem because of EU laws or Italy laws?
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Skaggerak
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Skaggerak

Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2016, 08:52:38 AM »
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Are you sure that "leave" is final?!
Are you sure that uk goverment will honour referandum's result?
Remember what happened with the greek referandum last year ;)

Cameron said he won't invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, this is going to be long and drawn out.

UK side will try to stall the triggering of the article as more referenda are setup giving them a clearer indication of other nations interests. The EU will want to push through and be as heavy handed as possible in the proceedings to try set an example for other countries to notice.
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tiha_patnja
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tiha_patnja

Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2016, 09:23:09 AM »
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Guys, lets see things the way they are.
When the UK gets out of the EU, all UK books will again start operating everywhere in this planet with out the limitations of the EU legislation.
I suppose that Betfair has no reason not to accept Greeks, Romanians, Italians, French, German gamblers again. Who, how and why could stop that?
Some of you think that e-wallets accept players only from the EU. Guys, the e-wallets accept Koreans, Kiwis and South Africans. None of them belong to the EU.
I'm surprised the administrator ignorance of this forum should be more informed on the issues of bookmakers and ewallet. Apart from the fact that they are not so sure that we will have more to do with Britain, but we will have to do with the Little Britain without Scotland and Ireland no. UK exiting the EU does not mean that English bookmakers tomorrow accept USA players, because the laws on gambling to date are regulated by national laws and not European.
For Betfair, bad suppose, because betfair.com according to European standards can accept any European citizen, but can not accept Italian (for example) because he asked for and obtained a license to operate in Italy with betfair.it
Finally, dear arbusers, we are not ignorant, then we do not think that the e-wallet function only with Europeans, but in the world there are e-wallet more honest than those in England

Is the betfair italy problem because of EU laws or Italy laws?
It is not an Italian or European law problem, but it is only a contractual clause between the Italian state and betfair.com. To operate with Italian license, Italians can open an account with only betfair.it game and can not sign up for betfair.com, otherwise Betfair will have to pay the heavy penalties to the Italian state, the Italian state and the money he has them already in your pocket with the bank guarantees

But this is just stupid. The Italians dont get the quality they would from .com and the .com doesnt get players from Italy witch in the end leads to lower quality. I cant understand how is this licence good for people of Italy and why are they OK with it.
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arbusers
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2016, 11:30:07 AM »
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I'm surprised the administrator ignorance of this forum should be more informed on the issues of bookmakers and ewallet.

Please correct me and bring me back in order when my ignorance comes out. That is why we have all these wise people, including you, to contribute to the forum and correct others when they go over the limits.
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arbusers
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2016, 11:37:03 AM »
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The UK keeps the longest and effective tradition on diplomacy. Many believe that Cameron is throwing the dices with the referendum, but the truth is that we will understand the reasons and the motivation of this referendum after some decades. Do not judge Cameron, or any UK PM under a Tsipras prism. Any UK PM has a horizon of decades in the future to plan and operate. Tsipras style PMs have a horizon of 2-3 hours in front, to avoid a tough question in the parliament or in front of a camera. Their longest horizon could be the next elections that usually come by surprise and with no real reason.
Offensive realism is the real prism to understand what is going on. Germany is getting longer and it must be shorter in any possible way. Lets call it VW scandal, UK referendum, or anything else. We are going towards a new multipolar systems and Europe will be a geopolitical prize, and not a polar. Germany keeps destroying the continent before committing suicide.
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Skaggerak
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2016, 12:07:29 PM »
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Perhaps I disagree because personally I'd rather the union stays intact, so I am biased.

I don't think the UK PM will have years on the horizon. They have made a brave choice, a gutsy, ballsy move. I commend them for that. In doing so however I think their fate no longer rests in their own hands, rather in the hands of Netherlands and France. Many countries will have referenda, but these as well as some other major players hold all the keys now. The spin and debate and heated arguments are just beginning. The initial reaction in my own country has been shock at the decision, so maybe I am being spun as my media considers it an appalling choice. A funny analogy I heard yesterday - "It's as if the UK decided to stab itself in the gut and is now dancing around celebrating the fact afterwards". ;D
I'd be interested to hear what the major media in some of your countries feel about it, especially the struggling countries around the Mediterranean.
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Bubbles
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2016, 01:58:14 PM »
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Are you sure that "leave" is final?!
Are you sure that uk goverment will honour referandum's result?
Remember what happened with the greek referandum last year ;)


BBC NEWS: "Million sign petition for new EU referendum"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629324
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arbusers
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Re: Arbusers position on Brexit
« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2016, 02:10:05 PM »
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Are you sure that "leave" is final?!
Are you sure that uk goverment will honour referandum's result?
Remember what happened with the greek referandum last year ;)


BBC NEWS: "Million sign petition for new EU referendum"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629324


A petition is not an electoral activity and therefore has no significance in the decision making process.
The UK could not validate the result of the referendum in parliament. That would mean that a similar to Greece coup d' etat will be taking place, a situation that people could not bear. If democracy is in question in the UK, that means that we are moving towards dark ages.
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