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Do you avoid tennis arbs between books with different retirement rules?

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Author Topic: Do you avoid tennis arbs between books with different retirement rules?  (Read 1279 times)
barnstorm
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« on: August 06, 2016, 02:36:29 PM »

Do you avoid tennis arbs between books with different retirement rules?

For instance, Bovada and The Greek's matches are good after one set, but most others require two sets. There are some major books that require the full match to be played and a couple others that say it's good after the first ball is served!

This can get dangerous. I've had two retirements in the last couple weeks. One hurt me and one helped me.

Do you just ignore it and play the odds that it's not going to happen?
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barnstorm
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2016, 02:40:31 PM »

Here is what I have, but don't quote me on it. It may not be up to date. Check your books to be sure.

Tennis Retirement Rules

Match Counts as soon as Ball Served
888sport
Betshop
Bwin
Interwetten
Meridianbet
Novibet

1 Set Completed
1xBet
5Dimes
BetBaller
Betdaq
Betfair
Betfred
BetOnline
Betsafe
Betsson
Coral
GoBetGo
Ladbrokes
Marathonbet
Matchbook
Paf
Panbet
Pinnacle
Smarkets
Unibet
WagerWeb

2 Sets Completed
TheGreek
Bovada

Match Completed
10bet
12bet
138
188bet
Admiral.at
Bet365
Bet-at-home
BetClic
BetCRIS
Betinternet
Betrally
Bookmaker, Diamond, JustWin
Boylesports
Canbet
Cashpoint
Centrebet
Championsbet
Dafabet
Diamond Sports Book
Expekt
Gamebookers
Intertops
Luxbet
Mybet
Netbet
NordicBet
Noxwin
Paddy Power
SBO
SportsbetAU
Stan James
Stoiximan
TabAU
Tatts
Tipico
Titanbet
Victor Chandler
William Hill
William Hill AU
Winner
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Thordin
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2016, 02:52:23 PM »

gobetgo :D
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dealer wins
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2016, 03:15:09 PM »

Take strong favs (1.2 or less) at "match complete" books, and high priced dogs at "one ball" books.

Small loss v potential for a big result.

Over the years I would say the retiring player is the underdog about 65% of the time so worth bearing in mind.

Also some players retire many times, worth keeping track of them and get bets on at the correct rules to take advantage.
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2016, 03:23:20 PM »

gobetgo :D

Beat me to it :D
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luctens
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2016, 12:51:41 AM »

I personally only bet on books which have the same tennis rules. Of course you can study various trends to do with retirements to possibly put the odds in your favour, but when it's all said and done, you are still relying on luck for the situation not to go against you and cause you to lose money and I like to make arbing as risk free as possible so I see betting on books that have different tennis rules as an unnecessary risk.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2016, 12:54:01 AM by luctens » Logged

middler
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2016, 01:33:11 AM »

best middles i got came from mixed tennis o/u rules, it's one of my best sports.
don't panic because of mixed rules, just take time to read them and you might use some of them on your favor.
e.g. o/u, one book says bet is void if there is a retirement whatever the score, and the other book gives you win / loss if one of the outcomes is not possible when there's a retirement. you can make a risk free middle.
i also remember many good middle opportunities with hockey o/u (regular time and ot included).
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barnstorm
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2016, 01:01:13 PM »

Wow. I just noticed this from BetGun. This is pretty radical and could cause a problem with an arb. Of course, it might favor you or it might kill you.

"CHANGE IN "RULES OF THE GAMES" TENIS - RETIRED PLAY
From 28.09.2015 - there has been a change in "rules of the games" acc. tennis. As from now as a result of player's retirement from the game - all bets concerning this event will be granted as cancelled."
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barnstorm
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2016, 04:20:16 AM »

I should have listened to my own warnings! I just get screwed as Bovada cancelled my win on Opelka after Stakhovsky retired midway through the second set, and I lost my bets at BetOnline and 5Dimes where I had Stakhovsky. That really sucks. Books really should be consistent on this. Why wouldn't Bovada want more action and more juice by counting it good if it just goes one set? I suppose I can see where it would suck if your pick was winning after one set and had to retire, but it would also suck if your pick was winning after one set and the other guy retired and you didn't get the win.

Well, I did benefit from one of these a couple weeks ago, but I lost more on this one than I won on that last one.

Damn, something like this wipes out a month's worth of work!
« Last Edit: August 10, 2016, 04:33:20 AM by barnstorm » Logged

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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2016, 08:45:15 AM »

I should have listened to my own warnings! I just get screwed as Bovada cancelled my win on Opelka after Stakhovsky retired midway through the second set, and I lost my bets at BetOnline and 5Dimes where I had Stakhovsky. That really sucks. Books really should be consistent on this. Why wouldn't Bovada want more action and more juice by counting it good if it just goes one set? I suppose I can see where it would suck if your pick was winning after one set and had to retire, but it would also suck if your pick was winning after one set and the other guy retired and you didn't get the win.

Well, I did benefit from one of these a couple weeks ago, but I lost more on this one than I won on that last one.

Damn, something like this wipes out a month's worth of work!

Having "match complete" rules means they dont get caught up in a lot of bent tennis matches with dodgy retirements.  I think all books should be full match completed, but different rules do mean opportunities, but sadly it went the wrong way for you yesterday.
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barnstorm
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2016, 11:32:43 AM »

Not sure if I could have seen this one coming. I think I just have to avoid arbing with two books with different rules.

I see from a study that:
Retirements are on the rise in tennis.
Retirements are more often than not by the higher ranked player.
Retirements happen more often on hard and clay court surfaces.
Retirements happen more often in outdoor venues than indoor.
Retirements happen more often in lesser important tournaments.
Retirements happen more often in best of 5 set tournaments.
Retirements happen more often in the latter part of the season - October - December.
There is some increased suspicion that some retirements are gambling related.
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barnstorm
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2016, 10:58:23 PM »

See now, Bovada is offering Benneteau at +240 vs Lopez -220 at Pinnacle in a Los Cabos ATP match tonight.

But do you risk the retirement rule and just take it?

The match is good after 1 set at Pinnacle but needs to go 2 sets to count on Bovada. I guess you could play the % and figure, it's a long shot that one of the players retires and even if one does, there's still a 50/50 chance it will go your way.

Of course, I'd play the First Set winner if it was as good an arb, but it's not.

Whaddya do?
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barnstorm
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2016, 11:16:36 PM »

Now, if I had know the following, I would not have backed Stakhovsky in that match that I got beat on his retirement vs Opelka the other day. I went with Sergiy Stakhovsky, the King of Retirements! A little knowledge goes a long way. Or I should have taken him on Bovada, but that wasn't the way the arb set up! Live and learn.

Player              Matches  Ret Rate 
Sergiy Stakhovsky       209      4.8%
Michael Llodra          370      4.6% 
Yen Hsun Lu             222      4.5% 
Janko Tipsarevic        434      3.9% 
Denis Istomin           211      3.8% 
Paul Henri Mathieu      456      3.7% 
Filippo Volandri        367      3.5% 
Potito Starace          347      3.5% 
Xavier Malisse          531      3.0% 
Viktor Troicki          300      3.0%
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barnstorm
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2016, 12:38:38 AM »

Best site for checking on injuries or injury clouds?

Here is one, but they don't even list Stakhovsky's retirement the other day.
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/list-players/injured/

I never did find out the cause. Maybe he was just pissed off. I know he was mad at one call and smashed his racquet down after losing the first set. Pussy.  :'(
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barnstorm
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2016, 12:31:52 AM »

There is another Arb opportunity with Bovada, but I don't know whether to risk it.

Seems like there is about a 75-1 chance of a retirement with any tennis match, given that there are 1-2% retirements these days. Obviously those numbers increase or decrease with the player's history and other factors we discovered above. But I've had 2 or 3 in the last month or so on much fewer than 100 matches!

I wonder if I can find a 75-1 prop bet on whether there will be a retirement or not and take out some insurance whenever I arb with Bovada? Anyone know if any Books offer such prop bets?
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