Matched volumes

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ludako
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ludako

Matched volumes
« on: August 07, 2016, 07:33:47 PM »

This topic is to help us exchange some experience and make money in long term. I hope it will be useful to every one of you.

I started to watch big volume soccer markets in betfair (over 30k matched). I'm trying to do a statistics for teams that have over 80% of market's volume at odds over 1.8. Let's say total matched on 1x2 market is 30k and Home Team has 28k at odds ~2.20. So far it seems that these cases can make money in long term but I don't have like 500 of them to create clear and no variation statistics. Also, the profit is higher if I bet DNB or double chance on that team.

Do you think there's any connection between team's matched volume and the chance for this team to win the game? Or this volume is made by arbers who back the bet at asians and lay at betfair? If that's true, someone is Backing that on betfair, right?

Any thoughts or statistics will be greatly appreciated.  Thanks!
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tiha_patnja
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tiha_patnja

Re: Matched volumes
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2016, 09:58:50 PM »

think you are wasting your time and that you have answered your own question. If some1 back some1 has to lay. So the volume by itself wont change anything.
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ludako
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ludako

Re: Matched volumes
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2016, 10:17:48 PM »

think you are wasting your time and that you have answered your own question. If some1 back some1 has to lay. So the volume by itself wont change anything.
Thank you for your opinion.
Lets say that arbers back at some bookie and lay at betfair. Someone has to back at betfair at low price. Who'd back 30k on brazil 3rd division match if there's no inside information or anything that makes him believe this team will win?
« Last Edit: August 07, 2016, 10:23:05 PM by ludako » Logged
tiha_patnja
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tiha_patnja

Re: Matched volumes
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 10:29:42 PM »

think you are wasting your time and that you have answered your own question. If some1 back some1 has to lay. So the volume by itself wont change anything.
Thank you for your opinion.
Lets say that arbers back at some bookie and lay at betfair. Someone has to back at betfair at low price. Who'd back 30k on brazil 3rd division match if there's no inside information or anything that makes him believe this team will win?

Well, I think that you need more experience to understand the mind of the betting population, how do you think bookmakers still exist if exchanges are here? Stupid people doing stupid things
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prolbet
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prolbet

Re: Matched volumes
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2020, 08:47:01 PM »

think you are wasting your time and that you have answered your own question. If some1 back some1 has to lay. So the volume by itself wont change anything.

What is more reliable, it's the variation of matched volume over time. If we see that 30k has been matched and odds didn't change, it's surely meaningless. But at the opposite, if odds dropped by 10% with 30k matched, it looks like serious/pro bettor taking positions. You should chase these fluctuations IMO
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apoel81
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apoel81

Re: Matched volumes
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 06:44:56 AM »

think you are wasting your time and that you have answered your own question. If some1 back some1 has to lay. So the volume by itself wont change anything.

What is more reliable, it's the variation of matched volume over time. If we see that 30k has been matched and odds didn't change, it's surely meaningless. But at the opposite, if odds dropped by 10% with 30k matched, it looks like serious/pro bettor taking positions. You should chase these fluctuations IMO

''If we see that 30k has been matched and odds didn't change, it's surely meaningless''

I am not an arber but what you described is not meaningless. 30k in a 3rd brasil league are not small amount. In my eyes is a sign that bet is bad and smart bettors are hated it, that's why odds are not moving.

On the contrary, moving the odds by 10% or even more in the same game, looks completely normal reaction from market.
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cigo
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cigo

Re: Matched volumes
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 07:39:12 AM »

i used similar system to bet on horses, when i implemented this system my yield incised on soft bookies drasticly, but i never try this on exchanges, but it should work fine.. i had some extra tricks involved how to look at graphs,
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autobetting
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autobetting

Re: Matched volumes
« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 04:40:34 PM »

its hard to make a prediction based on matched volume preplay. its a very different story inplay tough. you need to check the graphes and the matched volumes on betfair . if you do this often enough to get competent in this field there is money to be made. spikes in the market are not effiicient but regular inflow of money is.
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