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Pinnacle / Betfair arbing

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Author Topic: Pinnacle / Betfair arbing  (Read 3279 times)
arbasian
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« on: August 11, 2016, 04:03:16 PM »

Hi,

I would like to know if anyone tried his or her luck arbing Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange.

I am a software developer who starting looking at Arbs recently. I wrote software that would find me arb opportunities and place them for me. I just receive a notification of the arb, and press an 'act on' button. I managed to make a 50% profit out of my budget, however now it seems that Marathon were not impressed with my approach and limited my account to 1 Euro.

Therefore now I am looking at trying my luck with arbing pinnacle and betfair as limits should not be a problem with those two. Also I am on the lookout for occasions where pinnacle might have higher odds than betfair's lay odd. The problem I am seeing currently in both strategies is the lack of opportunites after one factors out Betfair's commission of 5%.  Is there anyone who tried this combination and is getting any yield from them?

Thank you.

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dealer wins
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2016, 06:25:09 PM »

Not many arbing opportunities there lol

Try another soft book v Pinnacle.
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maletaja
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2016, 06:57:22 PM »

Even in theory it is possible. Betfair 5% commision kills all action. Even without commision it would be challenge i think
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Arbusers
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2016, 07:08:41 AM »

The 5% commission rate will wipe out everything leaving no space for profits. A 3% commission rate will start offering some arbing opportunities between Betfair and Pinnacle. These opportunities will be multiplied and offer you significant profits when the commission rate goes down to 2%.
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arbasian
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2016, 10:46:19 AM »

Thank you for the feedback so far. In fact part of the strategy is to sacrifice the betfair leg to make no profit, but just return all the stakes until I lower the commission fee to an ideal 2%.
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Arbusers
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2016, 10:54:12 AM »

until I lower the commission fee to an ideal 2%.

This is not an easy task.
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samuel072
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2016, 05:51:43 PM »


ive had this problem aswell id recommend arbing using 10bet smarkets sbobet and the brokerbetting sites such as maxbet .
so hope to have helped you

could someone reccomend an arbservice with these bookmakers 10bet smarkets sbobet pinnacle and betfair i dont like rebelbetting.

im new on this forum but im an experienced arber.
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2016, 07:51:59 PM »

Better off forgetting Betfair if you can't get very low commission there - Pinny v Matchbook/Smarkets would be best if you can get decent liquidity on the market
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maletaja
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2016, 09:08:12 PM »

betfair earnd like 500 million last year. Business is not bad for 6% commision...
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2016, 11:37:57 PM »

Better off forgetting Betfair if you can't get very low commission there - Pinny v Matchbook/Smarkets would be best if you can get decent liquidity on the market

Matchbook copy Pinny lines most of the time so arbing between them is impossible on most sports. And with BF cross market cross matching bot the number of arbs between them and Pinny will be tiny and last seconds at best.  And there will be bots that suck up these arbs before we even know they exist.

You need a soft book, any soft book to make money! 

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luctens
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2016, 11:52:08 PM »

betfair earnd like 500 million last year. Business is not bad for 6% commision...
I don't know where you are getting your figures from but Betfair made a pre-tax profit of £120m last year, not £500m like you say and of the £120m, only a percentage of that would be from the Betfair Exchange and you can see with your own eyes that the volume is dwindling at a seriously high rate with around a 50-60% drop in Euro 2016 volumes compared with Euro 2012 so for sure the Betfair Exchange is still very profitable but it is definitely a sinking ship in relative terms.
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2016, 12:22:22 AM »

betfair earnd like 500 million last year. Business is not bad for 6% commision...
I don't know where you are getting your figures from but Betfair made a pre-tax profit of £120m last year, not £500m like you say and of the £120m, only a percentage of that would be from the Betfair Exchange and you can see with your own eyes that the volume is dwindling at a seriously high rate with around a 50-60% drop in Euro 2016 volumes compared with Euro 2012 so for sure the Betfair Exchange is still very profitable but it is definitely a sinking ship in relative terms.

Agreed, Betfair exchange volumes are dropping massively across all sports.  They need to watch out because if Matchbook or another new exchange from a reputable company get their commission competitive, betfair will be toast!   Betdaq had a golden opportunity about 2 years ago, but their greed has cost them the golden goose IMHO.  They prefer 5% of nothing to 2% of millions lol

How betfair get away with the commission they charge is beyond me, and why no challenger company is eating them alive I simply do not understand.  Matchbook only need to tweek their commission (Inplay only even) to 2% of net winnings and they will be in prime position to take betfair down.
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Ingarb3
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« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2016, 01:24:44 AM »

Matchbook would struggle to compete with the "perks" of key accounts at Betfair. Even at 1% net win, it would be very unlikely that Matchbook would take BF down. There will be new initatives at BF to increase the volumes this season. Let's see how they work.
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luctens
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« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2016, 04:06:14 AM »

Any "new initiatives" or whatever Betfair have up their sleeve is only delaying the inevitable and trying to stave off the decline. They have done some irreparable damage to their exchange in recent years. It is so ironic that in their launch over 15 years ago they were going around the streets with a mock funeral of bookmakers and shouting "death to the bookmaker", and now they are in bed with a bookmaker so they have gone full circle and the customers that were so attracted initially by their product, they have well and truly stabbed them in the back. Even their top volume customers hate Betfair and only seem to use them because they feel they have no choice as they need to use a trading app or some other reason. When your most loyal customers despise you so much, you know your days are numbered.

Smarkets is the one to take over. If you read between the lines of all publicly available information about Smarkets, they are currently upgrading their site so they can be used by third party applications which will bring in traders etc, they will be ramping up their marketing soon, they are looking for an IPO to gain some major capital to invest and they are looking to bring their commission rate down at some stage to something around 1% net win commission. These things in my opinion will attract the high volume customers Betfair have to transfer over in mass, gain them further recognition in wider circles than currently and then you will really see Betfair fall over a cliff. When you look around the online sports betting industry, in so many ways Smarkets are the only ones that resemble the future and growth rather than the past and staving off a decline.

In summary, Smarkets has some of the best technology geeks around that are building a website that is beyond all capabilities of a general bookmaker site and will have the capabilities of something like a stock trading site, they will be available on third party trading apps soon, they are a reputable, well funded and growing company, they have expanding and increasing volume on an increasing number of markets, they are working towards around 1% net win commission and they have stated that they won't do a premium charge. If they can deliver on all of that then in my opinion they will have the best available product on the sports betting market, and that includes beating Pinnacle etc so if we want to topple the Betfair monopoly, in my opinion it is only Smarkets that will do this so we need to get behind them as much as possible to provide an all round viable place for all bettors to go and to get rid of the rancid Betfair Exchange.

You only have to see what Smarkets have done in the last 3 years and that has been done without any real advertisement, without that much major investment and without the ability to attract traders that necessitate the use of third party trading applications. They are really only in the very early stages and they are already challenging and beating Betfair on volumes traded on some major markets. Once they get into full gear, I believe they will grow exponentially and within the next 5 years I believe Smarkets will be by far the most dominant exchange so in my opinion getting behind Smarkets is our only option to topple the Betfair monopoly.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2016, 04:54:32 AM by luctens » Logged

Arbusers
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« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2016, 07:03:56 AM »

There will be new initatives at BF to increase the volumes this season. Let's see how they work.

I would like to know some more about these initiatives.

The only responsible for the fall of volumes is Betfair itself. They stupidly implement some policies that harms them and the players. Let me mention some, but not all of them.
1. The 6% commission rate. This is actually making them a sports book and not an exchange.
2. Premium Charges. This is giving the wrong signal to all successful bettors.
3. Withdrawal from key countries, even if the local legislation is not that strong and would allow them to continue operate with little effort.
4. The 8 secs delay. Come one, we are all clever here, we know why you are doing this.
5. The fight against court siders.
6. Their will not to offer key accounts the same way they did in the previous years.
And some more reasons that wouldn't be clever to mention.

As for Smarkets, If everything that luctens says is true, somewhere along the way we will test their level of greed. As i see it, they don't wish to have sharp action.
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