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Do you sometimes wait for line movement to increase your Arb?

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Author Topic: Do you sometimes wait for line movement to increase your Arb?  (Read 628 times)
barnstorm
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« on: August 13, 2016, 03:26:17 PM »

Do you sometimes wait for line movement to increase your Arb?

Sometimes the line is clearly moving in your favor, so do you put the soft bet in and wait and see if you can do better with the steam? Or is that "gambling?"

If you do, what Books are best to watch for early and leading line movement, so you can see if you should wait for an even better number or grab your number now? Is Pinnacle the first to move?

Thanks!
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NXV
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2016, 03:41:02 PM »

if you knwo what you are doing, than it's trading. but if you don't, than it's gambling ;)
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luctens
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2016, 03:42:38 PM »

Do you sometimes wait for line movement to increase your Arb?

Sometimes the line is clearly moving in your favor, so do you put the soft bet in and wait and see if you can do better with the steam? Or is that "gambling?"

If you do, what Books are best to watch for early and leading line movement, so you can see if you should wait for an even better number or grab your number now? Is Pinnacle the first to move?

Thanks!
What you are suggesting isn't arbing and it isn't outright gambling, it is in the middle of the risk spectrum as it is trading.

The line might be moving in your favour but it doesn't mean it won't move against you in the next few minutes and wipe out the arb and even leave you with a loss. If you have a good arb that you can make profit from and you are risking that by seeing if you can eek out further profits by seeing if the line moves further in your favour, in my view that is an unnecessary risk. I'm in this for profits that are as risk free as possible and for me, waiting for the line to move when you already have a good arb is an unnecessary risk.

Each person has a different appetite for risk so before you go any further, you need to decide whether you want to be an as risk free as possible arber or a risk/reward trader, as being somewhere in the middle is likely to muddle your thinking and you probably won't be as successful as you should be or successful at all so you need to have a set approach on whether you take an arb if it's there, or if you take the risk of seeing if the line moves further in your favour whilst having the chance that the line moves against you.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2016, 04:20:48 PM by luctens » Logged

Alfa1234
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2016, 03:47:41 PM »

When you gain experience, you'll learn to "read" these moves and will get a feel for them.  This increases my profit a lot but it takes time to be able to predict how far a line will really move.  Knowing what caused the move will also help.
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2016, 07:14:47 PM »

sometimes you can nick a few ticks at the exchange if you know how to read a market - depends on the sport
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barnstorm
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2016, 11:02:41 PM »

Thanks, I agree that once you decide to wait for a line to move, then you are trading.

But if you have a slow moving book, you might be able to watch the other quicker Books to see just when and if the line begins to correct and move against you and quickly place and complete your Arb bet with the slower Book.

What Books would you watch as being on the leading edge of line changes? Pinnacle? BetCris? Bet365? Ladbrokes? 5Dimes is actually pretty quick. 1xBet and Marathon are aggressive with their line moves, but are kind of outliers.
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AceJack
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2016, 05:40:47 PM »

Thanks, I agree that once you decide to wait for a line to move, then you are trading.

But if you have a slow moving book, you might be able to watch the other quicker Books to see just when and if the line begins to correct and move against you and quickly place and complete your Arb bet with the slower Book.

What Books would you watch as being on the leading edge of line changes? Pinnacle? BetCris? Bet365? Ladbrokes? 5Dimes is actually pretty quick. 1xBet and Marathon are aggressive with their line moves, but are kind of outliers.

I would say if there is crazy action on betfair / smarkets --> wait with your arb and untill the market has slowed down ..  then place your bet at betfair/smarkets
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