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Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)? (page 3)

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Author Topic: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?  (Read 3560 times)
kapetan1122
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« Reply #30 on: September 03, 2016, 12:21:57 PM »

Yngwie, what are you doing now as a full job?

Hope he is enjoying in his earnings and not have full job,isnt that a goal?
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Arbusers
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« Reply #31 on: September 03, 2016, 12:57:11 PM »

Yngwie, what are you doing now as a full job?

Guitar genius obviously :)

Was always wondering if his nickname has anything to do with Mark Twain's Tom Sawyer.
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #32 on: September 03, 2016, 01:08:22 PM »

Yngwie, what are you doing now as a full job?

Guitar genius obviously :)

Was always wondering if his nickname has anything to do with Mark Twain's Tom Sawyer.

That was Rush :D
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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« Reply #33 on: September 03, 2016, 07:18:01 PM »

Yngwie, what are you doing now as a full job?

Arbitrage of course :)))


« Last Edit: September 03, 2016, 07:23:01 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged

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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #34 on: September 03, 2016, 07:37:27 PM »

Yngwie,

Awesome insights as always.
I created an excel compounding return bankroll spreadsheet and it really is sexy to see long term.
Limits are key also and is your br % suggestions.

Cheers,

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punting20
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« Reply #35 on: September 04, 2016, 09:04:26 PM »

I know a few pro punters, it's not an easy game, most of them have an edge of some description.  One person that springs to mind is a professional in running horse player on Betfair.  He's getting crucified by their Premium Charge but still makes a decent living.

I personally always like to sit some money on the right side of an arb trade especially if it's a late line and the rick price is the obvious anomaly.  In that respect I am taking a small position on most arbs I do as I have a win/loss situation, though very seldom for the actual full value of the stake on the arb. 

I think the only real angle for a longer term pro-punter on Sports is via an exchange (and beating the comm must be a massive handicap) and they have to have a significant edge. 

Obv there are 2 large professional sports gambling entities in London.  Star Lizard and Smart Odds, both do industrial level proprietary trading.
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KAOS
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« Reply #36 on: September 04, 2016, 11:45:31 PM »

I would be interested to know what the outcome would have been in an English Premier season where you always backed the smaller team at the best price. And when I say smaller I don't mean underdog. Instead, lesser known team with fewer fans.

Take a match last Feb, these are Pinnacle odds

Arsenal 1.68 V Leicester 5.32

We all know Leicester went on to win the league, and Arsenal won that tight game 2-1 and everything is easy in hindsight. But if I recall Leicester were 5 points clear at the top after 2 thirds of the season so in theory the best team in the country. Do those prices reflect that? If not, why not?

Mentioned recently was the theory that the odds move first in underground / illegal Asian books, then sharp books like SBO and Pinny, then exchanges, then soft books. Not mentioned was that punters move the odds.  So could it be blind faith in big teams, fans backing their own teams (the big guys), international punters backing the names they know? Or is this garbage and traders correct the odds anyway?
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Arbusers
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« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2016, 08:16:45 AM »

I believe your question will be answered soon, with facts and figures.
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Smartsportstrader
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« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2016, 10:04:05 AM »

I would be interested to know what the outcome would have been in an English Premier season where you always backed the smaller team at the best price. And when I say smaller I don't mean underdog. Instead, lesser known team with fewer fans.

Take a match last Feb, these are Pinnacle odds

Arsenal 1.68 V Leicester 5.32

We all know Leicester went on to win the league, and Arsenal won that tight game 2-1 and everything is easy in hindsight. But if I recall Leicester were 5 points clear at the top after 2 thirds of the season so in theory the best team in the country. Do those prices reflect that? If not, why not?


There is definitely market sentiment for certain teams. Again using Leicester as an example.
This weekend you have Liverpool priced at 1.63 with Pinnacle at home against league champions Leicester.
Do Liverpool really win 61% of the time?

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antemartic
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« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2016, 10:08:09 AM »

I would be interested to know what the outcome would have been in an English Premier season where you always backed the smaller team at the best price. And when I say smaller I don't mean underdog. Instead, lesser known team with fewer fans.

Take a match last Feb, these are Pinnacle odds

Arsenal 1.68 V Leicester 5.32

We all know Leicester went on to win the league, and Arsenal won that tight game 2-1 and everything is easy in hindsight. But if I recall Leicester were 5 points clear at the top after 2 thirds of the season so in theory the best team in the country. Do those prices reflect that? If not, why not?


There is definitely market sentiment for certain teams. Again using Leicester as an example.
This weekend you have Liverpool priced at 1.63 with Pinnacle at home against league champions Leicester.
Do Liverpool really win 61% of the time?
maybe
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luctens
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« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2016, 11:53:33 AM »

There is definitely market sentiment for certain teams. Again using Leicester as an example.
This weekend you have Liverpool priced at 1.63 with Pinnacle at home against league champions Leicester.
Do Liverpool really win 61% of the time?
Even before I started seriously looking into betting, I always noticed every weekend that the odds for Liverpool seemed way shorter than I thought they should be, and that was especially so if they were playing at home so it definitely seems like the bookies shade the odds towards these popular teams that have loads of fans. I would expect even at best prices you would be doing extremely well turning a profit over the last 15 years if you were backing Liverpool regularly.
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maletaja
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« Reply #41 on: September 05, 2016, 01:16:15 PM »

U want to say that fans(fool money) could change the lines betting Liverpool?I think market is quite efficient. There are always big smart money who can cover lines if need to
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2016, 03:10:54 PM »

It stands to reason that clubs with big followings will have more punters betting on their teams but they are all minor punters so in theory it shouldn't make a lot of difference

Last season was a freak IMO - Leicester were overpriced in all their away games because the traders expected them to implode at some point - I doubt very much if we'll have the same thing happening this season for two reasons - a small club won't be winning it and if one did top the table at some point their odds wouldn't be as big as Leicester's were last season

IMO the traders were lazy and/or overconfident
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #43 on: September 05, 2016, 05:20:51 PM »

1 way to gauge if fool money is moving the line (which imo it doesn't) is to look if it's coming in on the over or the favorite.

Since people who lose long term love betting those sides.

Knowing how the fools bet gives us the edge in deciding if the odds are being adjusted because of it.

You cal also find sites that have a breakdown (% wise) of where the action is.

You can also do a value betting idea that only targets unders and underdogs (like myself) so you can capitalize on last minute steam chasing (price changes).

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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #44 on: September 05, 2016, 05:23:23 PM »

1 way to gauge if fool money is moving the line (which imo it doesn't) is to look if it's coming in on the over or the favorite.

Since people who lose long term love betting those sides.

Knowing how the fools bet gives us the edge in deciding if the odds are being adjusted because of it.

You cal also find sites that have a breakdown (% wise) of where the action is.

You can also do a value betting idea that only targets unders and underdogs (like myself) so you can capitalize on last minute steam chasing (price changes).

The mugs and their betting habits certainly make things easier for smart people to judge how a market will move :)
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