How to evaluate a tipster (page 3)

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Tipstersplace
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #30 on: November 27, 2017, 11:45:31 AM »

Some of the important stats are these:

Win Rate: This is a very important statistic and each of us must pay close attention to it. Normally, I pay attention to these statistics when the tipster has a minimum of 100 tips, the bigger the history is, the more accurate this statistic is if I find a verified tipster with a win rate over 57% and a history of 500 + tips it will be very hard to find something to deny me from subscribing him.

Average stake: Another very important parameter here again as with the previous criteria, the larger history of bets, the more accurate the statistics will be. On the average stake, I can predict if the tipster fits into my profile, if he always stakes with the max stake, I need to know what will happen if he enters a big drawdown. Also, if he performs very well, but always stays at least, I can try to get some leverage into my bets, we will talk about this strategy in the next few weeks.

Performance up to date: What this means, I will look carefully at the results of my chosen tipster for this year's and last year. If last year he performed well and so far this year is about 0 and there is no change in his strategy that has the edge this may be a great opportunity to subscribe to it.
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #31 on: November 27, 2017, 12:33:56 PM »

Some of the important stats are these:

Win Rate: This is a very important statistic and each of us must pay close attention to it. Normally, I pay attention to these statistics when the tipster has a minimum of 100 tips, the bigger the history is, the more accurate this statistic is if I find a verified tipster with a win rate over 57% and a history of 500 + tips it will be very hard to find something to deny me from subscribing him.

Average stake: Another very important parameter here again as with the previous criteria, the larger history of bets, the more accurate the statistics will be. On the average stake, I can predict if the tipster fits into my profile, if he always stakes with the max stake, I need to know what will happen if he enters a big drawdown. Also, if he performs very well, but always stays at least, I can try to get some leverage into my bets, we will talk about this strategy in the next few weeks.

Performance up to date: What this means, I will look carefully at the results of my chosen tipster for this year's and last year. If last year he performed well and so far this year is about 0 and there is no change in his strategy that has the edge this may be a great opportunity to subscribe to it.

Winrate: I can easily give you a winrate of over 57% without providing profitable picks. Useless stat to look at to determine how good a tipster is.

Average stake: Also a useless stat to determine how good a tipster is. Some tipsters however can be seen manipulating their stats with different staking -> have a good run with high stakes in the beginning and then lower the stakes to keep a high yield. So I wouldn't red flag a tipster simply because he uses flat stakes/max stakes. There is much more transparency in a tipster using flat stakes imo,

Performance to date: I don't really know what you mean. Because he made money last year, and this year is still even, then because we assume he is a winning tipster, then we should jump in as variance is bound to kick back? How do we know that the first year wasn't due to variance?

I think you look at all the wrong stats here to determine whether a tipster is good or not. Read the thread again - the answer is right in front of you.
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BettingIsCool
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #32 on: December 03, 2017, 07:38:43 PM »

Agree 100% to the previous post. Strike rate, average odds, performance up to date as well as any other stats on tipster-platforms are of no use whatsoever to evaluate a tipster's ability to beat the market.

The general problem I see is that there is so much misinformation out there and the uneducated punter is tempted by the 'pretty-looking' stats that traditional tipster platforms display. Tipster-websites are selling their products (= tipsters) deliberately and ruthlessly even if they know clients WILL lose money with almost all of their hyped-up tipsters. I have been in contact with several tipster-platforms offering my help to implement indicators that would reveal every tipster's true ability. The offer was turned down by all of them for obvious reasons. It is quite sad for me to see that money always seems to come first to honesty.

The fastest way to learn and to avoid potential traps is to seek help from professionals. A good first starting point would be this https://bettingiscool.com/2016/12/27/how-good-is-a-betting-tipster/. There are also great articles on tipsters on Joseph Buchdahl's website www.football-data.co.uk.

And try to remember: If something looks too good to be true it probably is.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 07:53:57 PM by BettingIsCool » Logged
jaopor369
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #33 on: January 05, 2018, 02:38:28 PM »

I following u. :D
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maletaja
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #34 on: January 06, 2018, 11:07:37 AM »

I have to add some experience. I added some service-small leagues only small group. I thought there could be some value-if they know inside information lots of efficient markets...
They started like 30% roi and 40 bets already made and they advertised it all the way around...
When i started with them i lost 6 first bets!!! odds like 1.8-1.9 and i ended like 4/15 after all and even then they advertised they have still 15% roi!!
Another thing is  they used sbobet sometimes. I took some odds 1.8 when they advertised was 1.93. But why not if they have 30% roi!!!
Ok i ended this service about  one month and was said i dont know nothing about variations....
Sry u advertise 30% roi and i lost 6 first bets!

I think its nice scam. At first they need heater to lay with nice roi. If project fails then probably someone else starts new project. Or some mguy thiks he is genius
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barbero
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #35 on: January 06, 2018, 10:29:13 PM »

40 bets is way too few bets for absolutely any service. I wouldn't pay any serious attention to anyone under 400 bets, and that's still very very few bets.
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Wannabe
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #36 on: April 08, 2018, 06:38:26 PM »

Hi, Im new to the site but have a lot of experience in the industry. I found this thread interesting as I am always very cynical when following a tipster.

What is important to me is margin and P&L graphs (assuming a large betcount). Margin can show good the tipster is and I believe by looking at P&L graphs it helps visualize how a tipster is winning and if profits are attributed to a couple of large bets.

Beating the starting price is important but not as relevant to me as others here. I agree starting price lines are generally pretty efficient but I have done plenty of analysis through the years that highlight weaknesses. The starting price on horse racing on BF is generally assumed to be as close to the correct price as possible but there are plenty of flaws. Other sports I am interested in are Rugby and Boxing. Rugby would have very weak betfair lines so a lot would use Pinnacle starting prices as the correct lines but again analysis has shown that these lines can be quite inefficient (largely due lower limits). Boxing prices also are pretty inefficient, particularly on the biog fights where mass market money on popular fighters skew prices.

Criticism of using soft bookies opposed to Asians again isnt really fair as it is up to the user to try avoid getting restricted, sourcing extra accounts or just using retail opportunities to get on. Also Asians wont have minor markets, and limits on minor events are pathetic, if a tipster has a following or likes a sizeable bet themselves they can move lines themself.

My advice is to try build up a network of smart bettors who cover a wide range of sports and share info among each other opposed to looking online for anyone.
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nickolas
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #37 on: Yesterday at 10:55:38 PM »

You need two numbers, all other things equal, to evaluate the value of a tipsters pick. Yield and win rate.
...
Now the thing is, does anyone know of a formula to combine the two and make you able to directly compare two tipsters?


I am the original poster and want to correct my first post. For evaluation you need yield and loose rate.
Loose rate will tell you the risk you take with every pick to loose.
Say you have a tipster with 30% yield and 70% loose rate. This means you can hope for 30% return on your dollar but with every bet you have 70% chance of loosing. Having a row of 5 bets lost should be not uncommon at all!

Now one should use also common sense. If something is too good to be true... it most propably is!
If a tipster gives 50 tips a day, at Pinnacle with 20% yield it is almost certainly some kind of scum (like deleted lost picks).

Real tipsters can only give a limited number of picks, maybe none at all for long periods of time....
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