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valuebet vs arbitrage (page 3)

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fairpunter
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« Reply #30 on: October 25, 2016, 03:48:22 PM »

Im not convinced about taking negative arbs on the soft side.  Surely that will result in a loss in the long run?
oh sorry, I had to write "sharp side", Sharp side at soft bookies. you are correct that to back only soft side will result in a loss in the long term
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #31 on: October 25, 2016, 06:47:35 PM »

Was playing with a Arb calculator and thought I'd break down some math for those who (like me back in the day) are like wtf are they talking about?

We'll keep the odds simple to follow.........

At odds of +105 (Soft-B) / -105 (Pinny) (American Odds) there is no Arb.
But it could be a value bet depending on the value threshold % that you are targeting.
In order to keep this simple we're not gonna tally the added in vig which for Pinny seems to be around 2-3% for the sports I deal with.
Let's say you factor in the Vig into your targeted value % and let's say for example you decide to go for a 7% or better price.

Then you could place a bet at Soft-B  at odds of +102 and up.

This may be the reason that value betting accounts last longer than arbing accounts.

It also may be that if you are monitoring these odds on your own (which I do), you are not 1 of 100 people trying to get a max bet in at the same moment 2 days before the start of the game that arbing software lists them ( I make bets a half hour before start time).

Are there going to be times that Arbing opportunities and VB opportunities over lap, you betcha.

But are the only bets that you are placing Arbs, nope.

***Fun fact- For baseball Unders if the home team leads that's 3 less outs (5.6% less outs) that you have to dodge at the end of the game.***

« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 06:58:18 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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fairpunter
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« Reply #32 on: October 25, 2016, 07:07:51 PM »

RoosterDonky, can you answer to my question ?
why bookies don`t offer good odds for underdog teams and take arber`s money ?
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #33 on: October 25, 2016, 09:02:56 PM »

IMO each Books are going to offer odds / prices based on their clients habits.
If you own a store and sell shirts, if you would be happy with the profit of selling a shirt that cost you $4 at $9 but knowing that your customers will pay $10 you're likely to ask $10.
Some sites don't offer good odds on underdogs as you said though.
Some have alternative lines offered in which they figure the price wrong.
Example- Pinny says Baltimore U 40 in nfl is -105
Sometimes you'll find sites that have Baltimore U 41 -107
I come across this alot and it is an extreme joy to pounce on.
As far as the arbing question I have no idea, I haven't done arbing in a while as there were certain things (Gray areas) that I didn't want to do to continue.
So that's what led me to do what I am doing now, that and the numerous comments from others and my applicable experience as to seeing that I was having to replenish my Pinny BR constantly.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 09:26:51 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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obykoo
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2016, 04:27:42 PM »

If you could find enough valuebets in sharp and have long term profit, you already would be millionaire...
it much easier to find values in softbooks , but once you are in profit , you can expect limits, no matter what you were betting..


https://en.surebet.com/wiki/Valuebets -> I find this guide pretty helpful at what are valuebets and what are ways to find them , if someone still do not know what is this thread about.

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tarzan
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2016, 07:22:12 PM »

Of course is hard,arbing is also hard...but is not immpossible!
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obykoo
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2016, 07:50:39 PM »

Well arbing is not hard at all  until you get limited in all possible bookers..

Anyway I highly doubt that someone profitable with value bets in sharps like pinnacle would even care to visit this forum or share his ideas or income with someone... he can make really big income from it , so noone would be that stupid to share it.
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ProfGambler
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« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2016, 01:05:09 AM »

If you could find enough valuebets in sharp and have long term profit, you already would be millionaire...
it much easier to find values in softbooks , but once you are in profit , you can expect limits, no matter what you were betting..

Exactly that's my point. Once softbooks realize that you are in profit, you will be banned or limited. Then what you will do or how many fake accounts you will make?????

This is why I am saying again, if your bets are getting accepted in softbooks, you are a cash cow for softbook and living in a bubble.

Nobody got rich finding value in softbooks as he will be banned instantly. Some stupid guy send me personal message telling me his friend made $100,000 and he himself made $9000 in August without sending any proof. Why somebody will listen to these idiots is beyond me.

It's been touted many times on this forum that value bets are more profitable and even brings returns of 3-8%. When I challenge anybody give me return of 3%, admin called me greedy and said edge is 0.25-0.5%.

Everybody has to sell something to make money. This website where you and me are posting is making money through affiliates and sponsors. Sponsors are making money by creating a product like betburger/rebel betting. If some new product is coming in market for value betting, they will make money by selling valuebets to newbies.

Just ask a question to yourself, if there is any real money in value betting, why these people are not making money themselves? It's because they can't. Once they start making money, they will be banned or limited on any softbook. So they have to sell the dreams to newbies to make money.

Having said that, I have seen on this forum, it's mostly newbies and small time punters. I have a betting bankrole of $50k and extra $150k in my saving accounts which is not for gambling but for other purpose. I am only 31 years old and I have realized that arbing/value betting is for immature or small minded person. Real money is in product development. If you see a new betting product soon in Australian market, don't be surprised who is behind this product. 

Best of luck everyone and specially to those who think doing 1000's of $2 value bets will make them rich. Good Luck
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tarzan
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2016, 04:53:14 AM »

If it is for you the biggest problem about value betting is that players are limited or banned?!
What about 20% of people who are beting in local shops?
Do they make the money by your opinion?
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maletaja
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« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2016, 08:15:06 AM »

Profgamblers, it myth that arbers earn lots of money that they could afford ferraris or yachts....Probably good arbers earn 3k+month that isnt nothing special comparing for example java programmer who earns 100k year. But it could be nice extra income when you are unemployed, or doing some other things
Valuebets indeed are 3-8%, no point of doing this 0.5% edge
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2016, 08:40:38 AM »

If you could find enough valuebets in sharp and have long term profit, you already would be millionaire...
it much easier to find values in softbooks , but once you are in profit , you can expect limits, no matter what you were betting..

Exactly that's my point. Once softbooks realize that you are in profit, you will be banned or limited. Then what you will do or how many fake accounts you will make?????

This is why I am saying again, if your bets are getting accepted in softbooks, you are a cash cow for softbook and living in a bubble.

Nobody got rich finding value in softbooks as he will be banned instantly. Some stupid guy send me personal message telling me his friend made $100,000 and he himself made $9000 in August without sending any proof. Why somebody will listen to these idiots is beyond me.

It's been touted many times on this forum that value bets are more profitable and even brings returns of 3-8%. When I challenge anybody give me return of 3%, admin called me greedy and said edge is 0.25-0.5%.

Everybody has to sell something to make money. This website where you and me are posting is making money through affiliates and sponsors. Sponsors are making money by creating a product like betburger/rebel betting. If some new product is coming in market for value betting, they will make money by selling valuebets to newbies.

Just ask a question to yourself, if there is any real money in value betting, why these people are not making money themselves? It's because they can't. Once they start making money, they will be banned or limited on any softbook. So they have to sell the dreams to newbies to make money.

Having said that, I have seen on this forum, it's mostly newbies and small time punters. I have a betting bankrole of $50k and extra $150k in my saving accounts which is not for gambling but for other purpose. I am only 31 years old and I have realized that arbing/value betting is for immature or small minded person. Real money is in product development. If you see a new betting product soon in Australian market, don't be surprised who is behind this product. 

Best of luck everyone and specially to those who think doing 1000's of $2 value bets will make them rich. Good Luck

And yet, you somehow found this forum earlier this year which meant you do/did have an interest in it.  Presumably to make money.  When did you see the light?  Trust me, there are plenty of people here doing this full time.  Your responses just indicate you have failed at it yourself and are spitefull of those that are succeeding.
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Ingarb3
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« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2016, 08:59:27 AM »

Profgamblers, it myth that arbers earn lots of money that they could afford ferraris or yachts....Probably good arbers earn 3k+month that isnt nothing special comparing for example java programmer who earns 100k year. But it could be nice extra income when you are unemployed, or doing some other things
Valuebets indeed are 3-8%, no point of doing this 0.5% edge

A good arber earns 3k a month?  ;D
Is that a joke?
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yorkjoss
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« Reply #42 on: October 27, 2016, 10:19:47 AM »

If you could find enough valuebets in sharp and have long term profit, you already would be millionaire...
it much easier to find values in softbooks , but once you are in profit , you can expect limits, no matter what you were betting..


 I have a betting bankrole of $50k and extra $150k in my saving accounts which is not for gambling but for other purpose. I am only 31 years old and I have realized that arbing/value betting is for immature or small minded person. Real money is in product development. If you see a new betting product soon in Australian market, don't be surprised who is behind this product. 

Best of luck everyone and specially to those who think doing 1000's of $2 value bets will make them rich. Good Luck

you are way off the mark "prof gambler", unfortunately for you I am afraid you are the one who is "small minded",
the sums you talk of are small, there are many arbers/valuebetters in a different league to you, they don't need to
learn from a forum and are adaptable smart guys who mostly work things out by themselves.

if you are as smart as you seem to think then you must take your bankroll to another level, there are many
arbers earning your bankroll and more every year.

not that I wish to undermine the smaller guy, any guy who makes a living from bookmaker should be very proud.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2016, 10:29:11 AM by yorkjoss » Logged

fairpunter
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« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2016, 06:19:30 PM »

If you check my pickes carefully you can see that I always choose the matches which underdog teams don`t lose or I thought so pre match. With this way I wanted to show somethings to you from my first post in this forum (2 years ago), because it is best way to understand THEIR trick. What did you think ? you thought that I was a tipster ? Which tipster always prefer underdog teams ?

In summer EURO 2016 matches first time I began to show “somethings” in this forum.Check my posts in this thread, on some posts I called THEM “Market makers”:
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,4135.110.html
            And before quarter finals matches I found names of all semi-finalists, and finalists (Portugal-France) and main thing name of winner team Portugal. I`m not Nostradamus and this was not just a luck .
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fairpunter
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« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2016, 06:53:30 PM »

VALUE BETTING (VB)
This is just example this is not real odds: Real Madrid – Sevilla
Open bet is 1.87 for Real Madrid at soft bookies A, 1.88 at soft bookie B, 1.86 at soft bookie C, and 1.85 at soft bookies D
30 minutes prior to the starting time of the match you check the odds, Real Madrid odds at the soft bookies dropping down. 30 minutes prior to the starting time of the match bookie A offers odds 1.66 for Real Madrid, bookie C offers 1.67, bookie D offers 1.68, but bookie B offers odds 1.80 for Real Madrid.

What will you do ? – actually you will take the odds 1.80 from soft bookie B.
Because you think that risk managers of soft bookie B are stupid guys and that time(30 minutes prior to the starting time of the match) they are sleepy, they forget to check the odds, or they don`t know what they are doing. after all you will call it value bet.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 06:56:26 PM by fairpunter » Logged

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