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Exploit acca insurance

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Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Exploit acca insurance

Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:05 pm

I will try to be helpful but as I don't do accas please correct any mistakes.

If you have 4 bets of 1.7, do they stack like 1.7 x 1.7 x 1.7 x 1.7? ... for £83.52 return on a £10 bet?
Is your insurance a full refund of a £10 stake if one leg loses?

The only way I can see this working is to leave time between each leg of your acca, and place your next bet according to the outcome. If that's the case, you will have lost the potential to arb each leg as time has gone by, so you may have to accept a 5% -ve arb each time - at which point 1.7 is actually the sweetspot for a guaranteed loss.

In excel you can make something like this quite quickly to show you what to bet at each stage. I hope the table structures hold up (dummy odds as an example):

Initial stake: £10.00
Acca return: £112.45




Acca odds
Lay odds
-ve arb %



Leg 1
1.7
2.2
4.28%


Leg 2
1.8
2
5.56%


Leg 3
2.1
1.75
4.76%


Leg 4
1.75
2.1
4.76%






Acca performance / leg
1
2
3
4
Profit


WWWW
£6.88
£14.02
£33.39
£48.79
£-0.62


WWWL
£6.88
£14.02
£33.39
£48.79
£-0.62


WWLW
£6.88
£14.02
£33.39
£4.76
£-0.62


WWLL
£6.88
£14.02
£33.39
£4.76
£-0.62


WLWW
£6.88
£14.02
£2.99
£4.76
£-0.62


WLWL
£6.88
£14.02
£2.99
£4.76
£-0.62


WLLW
£6.88
£14.02
£2.99
£0
£-0.62


WLLL
£6.88
£14.02
£2.99
£0
£-0.62


LWWW
£6.88
£1.12
£2.99
£4.76
£-0.62


LWWL
£6.88
£1.12
£2.99
£4.76
£-0.62


LWLW
£6.88
£1.12
£2.99
£0
£-0.62


LWLL
£6.88
£1.12
£2.99
£0
£-0.62


LLWW
£6.88
£1.12
£0
£0
£-0.62


LLWL
£6.88
£1.12
£0
£0
£-0.62


LLLW
£6.88
£1.12
£0
£0
£-0.62


LLLL
£6.88
£1.12
£0
£0
£-0.62



(if you do this with my numbers above you will lose 62p and be insta-limited for your trouble, but you'll have matched off the risk!)
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Re: Exploit acca insurance

Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:05 pm

Hello Gamblers Ruin

can you please explain your excel sheet a bit more.

If I try to cover the £10.00 initial stake for the first leg of acca with a lay odds of 2.2 you will need to bet  £8.33 and not £6.88. Even with a £-0.62 loss you still need to play £7.82 to cover the £9.38 (10-0.62).

What am I doing wrong?
Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Exploit acca insurance

Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:34 am

Sorry for the long post, but here comes another one:

£6.88 was the last number to be calculated, I'm probably overlooking a trick but I can't easily explain where it comes from. I think essentially £8.33 is a bit too much to bet against your acca on the first leg because you're not "out" after the first loss due to your insurance. The "value" of the remaining acca/insurance depends on the odds you're going to get, so you need to start on the final bet and work your way backwards.

Let's change the first other-side odds to 2.5 so we're at least looking at some profit, and assuming we can find an arb when we place our acca to begin with:

(fixed my arb% calc mistakes from last time too)

Initial stake: £10.00
Acca return: £112.45




Acca odds
Lay odds
arb %



Leg 1
1.7
2.5
+1.19%


Leg 2
1.8
2
-5.26%


Leg 3
2.1
1.75
-4.55%


Leg 4
1.75
2.1
-4.55%







Acca performance / leg
1
2
3
4
Profit


WWWW
£6.06
£14.02
£33.39
£48.79
£0.21


WWWL
£6.06
£14.02
£33.39
£48.79
£0.21


WWLW
£6.06
£14.02
£33.39
£4.76
£0.21


WWLL
£6.06
£14.02
£33.39
£4.76
£0.21


WLWW
£6.06
£14.02
£2.99
£4.76
£0.21


WLWL
£6.06
£14.02
£2.99
£4.76
£0.21


WLLW
£6.06
£14.02
£2.99
£0
£0.21


WLLL
£6.06
£14.02
£2.99
£0
£0.21


LWWW
£6.06
£1.12
£2.99
£4.76
£0.21


LWWL
£6.06
£1.12
£2.99
£4.76
£0.21


LWLW
£6.06
£1.12
£2.99
£0
£0.21


LWLL
£6.06
£1.12
£2.99
£0
£0.21


LLWW
£6.06
£1.12
£0
£0
£0.21


LLWL
£6.06
£1.12
£0
£0
£0.21


LLLW
£6.06
£1.12
£0
£0
£0.21


LLLL
£6.06
£1.12
£0
£0
£0.21



You can see that the £48.79 at the end comes from £112.45-or-£10, and £4.76 comes from £10-or-nothing. Then just work your way back to the start and see what you're left with.

On inspection this actually boils down to:


Losses so far
leg 1
leg 2
leg 3
leg 4


0
£6.06
£14.02
£33.39
£48.79


1
--
£1.12
£2.99
£4.76


2
--
--
--
--



Edit: Actually, since you're placing your acca and then waiting to cover each leg, the lines can easily move and leave you vulnerable, so this still doesn't seem like a good idea. I think you'd be best placing the insured acca as value and leaving it there.
Last edited by Gamblers Ruin on Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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