Trump vs Clinton

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Question: Who would you vote for?
Donald Trump - 15 (51.7%)
Hillary Clinton - 14 (48.3%)
Total Members Voted: 26

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maletaja
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maletaja

Trump vs Clinton
« on: October 29, 2016, 09:56:35 AM »
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Im suprised betfair offers 1.32 for Clinton. Seems like it seems so free money. Any analyst says its almost impossible. Market would crash if Trump would elected

Any thoughts?
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Thordin
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 10:24:48 AM »
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Because polls are not accurate, lots of people simply don't answer them.
Also analysts, specialists etc have proven times and times again to not know shit when it comes to predictions.

Market crash, sure it will happen eventually. Personally I just hope they wont make more wars...
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luctens
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2016, 12:22:56 PM »
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Im suprised betfair offers 1.32 for Clinton. Seems like it seems so free money. Any analyst says its almost impossible. Market would crash if Trump would elected

Any thoughts?
This is not a mug punter forum, but that is most definitely mug punter talk.

Obviously it is nowhere near "free money", there is obviously no such thing for goodness sake. Even many 1/100 bets lose, let alone 3/10 shots. The very simple thing you have to remember is, if the bookmakers and exchanges are offering odds on something, no matter how short the odds are, then it is most definitely not a certainty or "free money" in any way, shape or form.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2016, 12:25:31 PM by luctens » Logged
maletaja
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 03:02:36 PM »
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I want to continue with that topic. Lets say Clinton has some(huge) problems. Which lines move faster betfair or stockmarket ? When Trump is elected spy should get hit
But im not sure market can compare with betfair. Any thoughts?
If someone has befair data when odds changed from 1.18 to 1.32. What was exact time?
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 03:04:23 PM by maletaja » Logged
AceJack
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 08:17:24 PM »
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Quote
If someone has befair data when odds changed from 1.18 to 1.32. What was exact time?

When Trump backed himself :D


lol
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yorkjoss
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 10:47:13 PM »
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Im suprised betfair offers 1.32 for Clinton. Seems like it seems so free money. Any analyst says its almost impossible. Market would crash if Trump would elected

Any thoughts?
This is not a mug punter forum, but that is most definitely mug punter talk.

Obviously it is nowhere near "free money", there is obviously no such thing for goodness sake. Even many 1/100 bets lose, let alone 3/10 shots. The very simple thing you have to remember is, if the bookmakers and exchanges are offering odds on something, no matter how short the odds are, then it is most definitely not a certainty or "free money" in any way, shape or form.

I was betting brexit just after the polls closed with many UK books, at 1/6, 1/8. 1/10 and even 1/12, was selling these on betfair at 1.06 to 1.09, of course the bets lost, i thought when I was doing it, no point in selling these bets
as the bookies must know something?...they didn't.

same with Clinton, as max said it should be free money but of course at 1.37, how can it be?
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Bubbles
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 02:25:06 AM »
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Market crash, sure it will happen eventually. Personally I just hope they wont make more wars...
It might happen and big time. If you look at the US military spending under Obama the army  became hugely under-invested for the benefit of navy and air-force. It reflects Obama's biggest decision in his foreign policy to pivot the US focus from Europe to west Pacific. That's why there are hardly any US military in Europe and they do absolutely nothing about Putin's action in Ukraine or Syria. They simply can't afford it as all its military machine is focus elsewhere as they clearly prepare themselves to be ready for realisation of their sea and air war doctrine. If economic and geopolitical rise of China is not going to stop and it will eventually put unbearable pressure on USD as the dominant reserve and trading currency it will be the matter of life and death for the US to undermine China and protect the USD. And thanks to China's geography they can easily block it from sea by blocking very few crucial points and thus blocking it's main trade route. The Chinese being aware of this Achilles hill announced the huge project of building the new land road to Europe through Turkey (that's why Erdogan can do whatever he likes with his opponents and Turkey intl position is on steady rise: who will pay more for his favours the USA to stop the new silk road road or China to let it go?) to bypass this potential sea blockade. They called it the new Silk Road.

It might of course not happen if something stops China growth, but if the balance of power between those two is not restored with the US regaining some ground or at the very least freezing the status quo, they won't go down without a fight. Both sides are absolutely aware of it and in the process of preparations. The importance of any other conflict, including the Middle East, is nothing compared with what dangers and potential consequences these developments bring. 

Sorry for getting a bit off Tramp/Clinton odds topic but all those Eurocentric media seem unable to see any bigger picture (the furthest they go would be discussing potential, as it wasn't real already, currency war but for whatever reason won't go a step further to consider what would happen if the US have lost the dominant currency war – well, Obama's pivot to western Pacific and the greatest shift in the pattern of US military spending since the 2WW  plus China's rapid arms building drop a heavy hint) and instead go in circles why America won't get involved in ISIS, why won't put pressure on Putin etc. They won't because it's not their strategic No. 1 problem and they much weaker now than 20 years ago and simply can effort to be distracted with minor - from their perspective - things.

Sorry for getting carried away writing such a long post :)
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dealer wins
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 08:26:14 AM »
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Great post Bubbles!  And maletaja dont go broke chasing free money, it doesnt exist trust me.  However smart you think you are, there will be someone smarter.   I recommend watching the Only Fools and Horses episode "Yuppy Love" for a fantastic example of this :)
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arbusers
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Trump or Clinton
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 09:05:41 AM »
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OK guys, our forum has an excellent record predicting results of elections and referenda. Vote here and we compare our opinion with the results.
Feel free posting what you think about these elections.
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Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 09:45:32 AM »
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"Who would you vote for?" is different to predicting who will win...

...but the results so far are fantastic  :D
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arbusers
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 09:48:01 AM »
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"Who would you vote for?" is different to predicting who will win...

...but the results so far are fantastic  :D

No, it is exactly the same. Our members vote pinpoint who wins the elections.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 09:54:45 AM »
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I bet Clinton 1.35 and now betfair has 1.46748!!!
and bet no brexit smth like 1.35ally it was big suprise that bookies didnt know anything. When i watched all the night brexit votes and betfair 1.10 jumped suddenly 1.35 then i knew smth was very wrong. Main problem no brexit thesis was London area and therefore it sounded so free money.
BTW my theory is smart money moves betfair line FASTER then market.
Then if u see big movement betfair short market
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Alfa1234
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 10:07:12 AM »
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Clinton wins.  Trump's path to 270 electoral votes is very, very difficult.

He would need every single battleground state as well as some democratic leaning states right now.

If Clinton wins North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Colorado OR Arizona it's over.

Trump would need all of those AND New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa or would have to flip some states that are leaning pretty left right now like Virginia or Pennsylvania.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

Everything would have to go perfectly for Trump to do it.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 10:21:03 AM »
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Seems to me polls wont show nothing. For Trump everything has to fit and betfair odds seems "value", but after brexit vote i stay away for adding
« Last Edit: November 03, 2016, 10:23:26 AM by maletaja » Logged
maletaja
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Re: Trump vs Clinton
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2016, 10:36:08 AM »
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new polls Clinton has +6point lead reuters, but betfair jump 1.4 to 1.46...
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