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Is it a solid prediction?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Is it a solid prediction?

Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:54 am

lukaszs wrote: What is average odds? I assume something arround 2.0 (I saw your thread in tipster section). If you used level staking,  3500 bets, average odds 2 with yield 4,4% that would mean p-value metrics is 0,004 and there would be 1:267 probability that profit comes because of luck factor. So yeah..nice numbers :)
Been a long time since I've done this maths, but is it not closer to 0.0092, 1 in 108? Potentially I am misunderstanding the yield, but either way still under 1%.

Edit: sorry, one tailed test, 0.0046
Last edited by Gamblers Ruin on Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is it a solid prediction?

Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:46 am

white32 wrote: If we were talking about classic analitics, finding value in sharps, how is it possible to find 300 value bets per month?. Lets consider that only 15% of odds are wrong (have value),
Odds bounce around. If you take a market with average 2% juice, it only takes a marginal move for there to be value at some stage.
white32
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Re: Is it a solid prediction?

Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:52 pm

Odds bounce around. If you take a market with average 2% juice, it only takes a marginal move for there to be value at some stage.
Good point
So how many % of odds you may take as a value per average league you work on? 30-40%? Don`t forget that many moves are quite right which called pinnacle lean.  ;)

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