I need help understanding value betting (page 3)

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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #30 on: June 02, 2017, 07:37:08 PM »

You might want to take a look at the following link guys:
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,1358.0.html


Nice link, wow since 2013.
I feel like such a beginner.

I like the part of arbing and shifting the money towards the soft as a risk free test to arbing.
Im using a slightly different, more time consuming method, but I like that approach.


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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #31 on: June 03, 2017, 03:56:26 AM »

With rules, what do you generally make based on experience or statistical data?

I'm thinking greater than 2.50 is too high too be a value bet.
(I dont have any historical data to see what kind of ROI value bets will provide between ($2.0 to $5 on at least 1000 bets))

Under than 1.90 is too less to be a value bet
Or should it be no less than $2, to ensure you make a profit.
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #32 on: June 03, 2017, 08:18:46 AM »

With rules, what do you generally make based on experience or statistical data?

I'm thinking greater than 2.50 is too high too be a value bet.
(I dont have any historical data to see what kind of ROI value bets will provide between ($2.0 to $5 on at least 1000 bets))

Under than 1.90 is too less to be a value bet
Or should it be no less than $2, to ensure you make a profit.

Why should odds 2.50 or greater be too high to be a valuebet?

If you got odds 2.50 on a coin hitting heads or tails, would you not take the bet?

What about if you got odds 3.00?

The odds (on the soft side) does not indicate the probability of something happening.
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testez
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #33 on: June 03, 2017, 11:28:50 AM »

With rules, what do you generally make based on experience or statistical data?

I'm thinking greater than 2.50 is too high too be a value bet.
(I dont have any historical data to see what kind of ROI value bets will provide between ($2.0 to $5 on at least 1000 bets))

Under than 1.90 is too less to be a value bet
Or should it be no less than $2, to ensure you make a profit.

this thread alone is a goldmine for you and still u draw conclusions like this one. when u set up a rule regarding the  max odd u will take, the factor that should consider is the variance that u can handle or not.

a decent set rule for u :   min odd 1.25 - max odd 2.5         stake - 0.5 of BR     

get some experience under your belt and you will feel by yourself what and when to change.
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Alfa1234
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #34 on: June 03, 2017, 12:27:46 PM »

this thread alone is a goldmine for you and still u draw conclusions like this one. when u set up a rule regarding the  max odd u will take, the factor that should consider is the variance that u can handle or not.

Exactly, I think everything you really need to know about value betting is in this thread...other stuff you can figure out on your own with regards to your own risk profile..  Read it again and again untill you understand everything 100% .  Showmedamoney, clearly you don't understand it yet or you would not have made a statement like the one you just made...I really do not recommend you to start with anything yet as it can only end in disaster.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #35 on: June 03, 2017, 10:48:30 PM »

thanks for the info, I did some calculation and can see why the odds don't matter.

In any case its early days at the moment, but I've picked 4 value bets out of 5.
Using some personal rules.
Will see  how we will go  after 100.


 
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Alfa1234
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #36 on: June 04, 2017, 09:26:38 AM »

Considering the fact there is very little going on right now and you seem to be insisting on ignoring a lot of advice here...did you at least stick to high volume games?  :)
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #37 on: June 04, 2017, 10:33:21 AM »

Thanks so much for your explanation, it would have taken me ages to figure it all out.
 I've taken everything on board, the only part that I've changed is a limitation on the odds.

A set of guidelines
# 1 - choose a bank roll, I've chosen 0.001% in my case
# 2 - find matches where the softbook at a greater odds than the pinnacle lean
# 3 - ensure at closing price there is still deviation.
# 4 - Stick to main events and not low leagues or unique sports.
# 5 - (personal rule added, limit odds below 3.50) (Can look at increasing that in future)
# 6 - (personal rule added, limit odds above 1.90) (Can look at increasing that in future)
# 7 - Don't chase any losses if they occur  and stick to the system.

I understand that the odds don't matter because you are beating the odds by a deviation and will win out in the end.
But to start off with, I want to try this based on some statistical data I've done in the past)



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Alfa1234
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #38 on: June 04, 2017, 11:08:47 AM »


A set of guidelines
# 1 - choose a bank roll, I've chosen 0.001% in my case
# 3 - ensure at closing price there is still deviation.


Nice, let me know how you can ensure #3 and we will both be very rich soon.  ;)

And 0.001% of your roll?  If your total roll is 100k €...you'll be betting 1 whole euro every time.  I can think of better things to do with your time.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #39 on: June 04, 2017, 11:26:16 AM »

I wish I had 100k, my bankroll is not near that  :-[
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 12:23:42 PM by showMeDaMoney » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #40 on: June 04, 2017, 11:34:33 AM »

You are not making sense...

If you could arb that bet it would still have value and you would be throwing away part of your edge by paying juice to the sharp bookie.  How would you parlay the bet after you've placed it?  And even if you could parlay it...I assume you mean add another value bet to it?  So you'd throw away the good value bet by adding the "bad" value bet to it?  If you were to arb the bet with a loss, you'd pay even more and make the loss even greater as you'd be adding sharp juice to the bad EV you already had.

Dude...just don't do it yet.  Seriously...every post shows your ignorance.  I don't want to be a d*** but you don't understand this stuff good enough to be value betting yet and it will end in disaster for you.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #41 on: June 04, 2017, 12:03:52 PM »

Removing this part.

Totally off, don't want to lead anyone in the wrong direction.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 12:24:16 PM by showMeDaMoney » Logged
NedlogViiibes
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #42 on: June 04, 2017, 12:28:29 PM »

On average: Every time you bet with Pinnacle on their closing lines, you will lose 2% of your stake. This thread should tell you why.

So is it a good idea to sell out on a valuebet, that turns out not to be a valuebet anyway?

I still haven't figured out what a parlay arb (even if possible) would do of good things in this case, but I'll leave that.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 12:41:29 PM by NedlogViiibes » Logged
showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #43 on: June 04, 2017, 01:30:51 PM »

Actually my bad, I thought about this more, if you have already taken the soft price, its too late to parlay arb.
As you have already placed the bet.

Your only option would be to arb out at a loss.
I guess if your value bets deviated (to non value) and your stake was $100+ then losing 1-2% is better than losing 100%

I guess if you dont cover these deviated bets, you would need experience to know what percentage of these (soft arbs that deviated, ending up winning/losing) and how that affected your bottom line.
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: I need help understanding value betting
« Reply #44 on: June 04, 2017, 03:06:11 PM »

Actually my bad, I thought about this more, if you have already taken the soft price, its too late to parlay arb.
As you have already placed the bet.

Your only option would be to arb out at a loss.
I guess if your value bets deviated (to non value) and your stake was $100+ then losing 1-2% is better than losing 100%

I guess if you dont cover these deviated bets, you would need experience to know what percentage of these (soft arbs that deviated, ending up winning/losing) and how that affected your bottom line.

You obviously won't lose 100%.

Earlier in the thread I told you how to calculate valuebets.

Lets say you took odds 1.90 on soft. As it turns out the Pinnacle price ends in 1.96.

1.96*1.02 = 2.00

1.90/2.00*100 = 95    -> we'll lose 5% on the initial bet.

If we bet the opposite outcome on Pinnacle just before start of game, then we would lose an additional 2% on this bet.


Everything is in this thread :)
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