Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy

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georg41
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georg41

Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy
« on: July 03, 2017, 11:19:42 PM »

Hi.I do arbing and i think to start value bets.
I speak with a friend , he is arber too and we speak about this.
He told me that a good idea for value betting strategy is when i will find a arb between soft book-pinnacle, to play ONLY the odd at soft book, and not at Pinnacle.

For example..I find now an arb 1X @2.10 odd at soft book - 2 @2.10  odd at Pinnacle.
I find this arb now and this game starts after 3 days.

The idea of my friend was to start to place ONLY the 1X @2.10 odd at soft book.

But can this style of value betting works? Can this give me profit after a lot of bets?

I am not sure that it can give me profit and i will explain why i am not sure.

Pinnacle sometimes make an arb 3 or 4 days before the day who start the game, at opening odds.
All bookies have 1X @2.10- 2 @1.70 and Pinnacle open odds with 1X @1.80 - 2 @2.10
If Pinnacle ceeps these odds untill the day who start the game, then 1X with 2.10 odd at soft book was a very good value bet and its sure that i will be winner after a lot of bets like this.
But the problem is that a lot of times Pinnacle opening odds are very different with Pinnacle's closing odds.
 I mean that a lot of times Pinnacle"s opening odds are 1X @1.80 - 2 @2.10 and closing odds are 1X @2.20 - 2 @1.73.
So this means that 2.10 odd at soft book for 1X was not a value bet, 3 days before the closing odds.

For me the best way to do value bets is this:
To look arbs only between Betfair(sharp) - other bookies(soft)
And to look only arbs who i can see a big or a enough big amount of money at lay or at back at this market at Betfair who do an arb with softs..
For exaple: 1X @ 2.10 at bet365 -- 2 @ 2.10 back at betfair..And 1300€ at back..(Or 500€ its ok, but not to see 8€ at back.
And this happen at the day at openning odds.
When i see an arb like this i think that the best idea is to play only 2.10 odd 1X at bet365.
Arbs like this (bet365-betfair) at opening odds, i have see that always closing odds are lower than 1.80 1X...
So i explain this that gabmler at Betfair who give me to play 2.10 at 2 (back) (he was play 1X at 1.90)  was sure that closing odds for 1X will be lower than 1.80 (sometimes lower than 1.70, or 1.60) , and the best idea for value betting is to place only 2.10 odd at bet365.

It can helps if arbers or value bettors in arbusers who have big experience , answer about my idea.

PS 1)I mean arbs between bet365-betfair at football games and at leagues who have not those games Pinnacle Sbοbet at the moment who i will find the arb(1-3 days before to start the game)
PS 2) The best idea for value betting may be is this: To know , to learn very very very well a league and can find faults at opening odds, but it is very very very difficalt for me to learn a league better of bet365 traders.
So i want to try with this way , to look betfair.
PS 3) It is not exaggeration: At arbs like this( between betfair-bet365 and big amount of money at back or lay at betfair) i see that always closing odds are lower than 1.90-1.80. Always.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 12:12:01 AM by georg41 » Logged
NedlogViiibes
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NedlogViiibes

Re: Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy
« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2017, 11:28:59 PM »

Have a look at this recent thread: http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,5037.msg58916.html#new
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georg41
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georg41

Re: Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2017, 11:45:35 PM »

Thank you NedlogViiibes..I read this topic but i ask here a different question.
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De Graaf
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De Graaf

Re: Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2017, 11:46:43 PM »

Both time ( how many days/hours till start) and liquidity are very relevant , yes, but you are making conclusions retrospectively at case 1 and just guessing rather than being certain at case 2. (or better put about case 2, why always?)

Consider this question:
Case 1, is 365 bet a value bet 3 days early if the swing goes against you at kickoff?
I'd say yes, because to even consider anything remotely related about kickoff odds at that time (3 days early) is a completely other domain of activity, the consequence of which would be to potentially value bet or arb pinny itself.
 
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georg41
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georg41

Re: Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy
« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2017, 12:02:53 AM »

Case 1, is 365 bet a value bet 3 days early if the swing goes against you at kickoff?
I have see at a lot of my arbs this:
 Arbs between 365-pinnacle  a lot of times closing odds will go against me (if i have had place only the value odd at bet365)
Arbs between bet365-betfair never closing odds will go against me.(if i have had place only the value odd at bet365)
I mean arbs between bet365-betfair at football games and at leagues who have not those games Pinnacle Sbobet at the moment who i will find the arb(1-3 days before to start the game)
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georg41
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georg41

Re: Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy
« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2017, 07:46:45 PM »

Here is a good example.
Yesterday night i see at Livingston  - Motherwell droping odds at 2(Motherwell to win) ..bet365 have had @2.00 odd and it was going down at @1.66..I was find 2 (Motherwell to win) at @2.00 odd at another bookmaker and i was place only this.
https://image.prntscr.com/image/5LTz-FCaQfissXeHzeW1Ww.png
At this moment i thought to place and 1X @2.10 odd at bet365 to finish the game with 2.44% profit , but i thought to risk for this game and to waiting untill today.
Today afternoon i see at Pinnacle also @1.66 at Motherwell to win...But for 1 our after opening odds 1.66 stay 1.66 at Pinnacle and not go down.
So i thought the best idea is to place 1(Livingston to win) @5.12 at Pinnacle
https://image.prntscr.com/image/3_p6Ycz2Q3OD2OKzShlGOQ.png
and Draw @4.37 at another book
https://image.prntscr.com/image/3A3RKpXLSomymD01AbOjNw.png
and finish this game with a very good profit (8.20%)
This was the best idea because last hours Motherwell to win goes up at Pinnacle (2.26 now)
https://image.prntscr.com/image/yXo3VNyGSb_FiQsY1Kc2Mg.png

So my @2.00 yesterday night at Motherwell was not a value bet
And if i was not do this trading at afternoon (with very good profit 8.20%) now closing odds of Pinnacle will be against me
« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 07:49:21 PM by georg41 » Logged
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