Value Bet and Acca's refund

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Pavel4
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Pavel4

Value Bet and Acca's refund
« on: July 10, 2017, 01:27:47 PM »

Hi guys, this is my first post/thread, but i read you all from a long time.

I have an opinion, but want to know if it is really good or just a spent of time.

So here we are, I'm Italian, and a lot of bookmaker offers acca refund if 1 leg lose...  most of them are at least bets with 3/4 leg and odds at least 1,40...

My idea was: what happen if i try to mix this offers with value bet?

Well i done an analysis... and the result are extremely good... maybe , we should pay attention on variance but let me do an example:

Tennis Quote for 3 legs bookmaker A vs PINNACLE:
1,6 - 1.55
1,45 - 1.4
1,45 - 1.4

I know that this aren't really Value Bet, but they are the nearest that i can find...

lets do maths... and the probability are this: (0 LOSE, 1 WIN):
000   0,0289664
001   0,072416063
010   0,072416063
011   0,181040158
100   0,052666228
101   0,131665569
110   0,131665569
111   0,329163924

So, as says up, we have refunds of 50% if only one leg loose...
 if you do the other maths, you should see that on the papier there is a complessive edge of 65%...

What do you think about to play hundred of treble and let them just go?

Thanks
And sorry for the long thread and the bad english.
Pavel





 
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okakabukaka
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okakabukaka

Re: Value Bet and Acca's refund
« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2017, 07:44:05 PM »

what a good first post. hope someone will help you :)
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